NFL Survivor Pool Pick Update
More than 75% of entries will pick one of the Chargers, Titans or Packers this week. The Chargers are still the team I like least of this group, but I would try to fade all three if possible.
The Broncos are still my top option, followed by the Seahawks.
The Chiefs are picked in only 2% of entries, so if you have saved them all season, they make a good contrarian play against a depleted Raiders team.
The Lions finally got on the board, which was bad news for the 25% of NFL survivor pool entries that picked the Vikings last week. The three teams we narrowed our options down to all made it through — the Colts, Rams and Bucs — so it was a safer week than other recent ones.
As we enter the final stretch, you should be planning and penciling in your picks for the rest of the season. And while I'll still run through potential plays each week, some of the debates between picks may be moot, depending on which teams you have remaining.
One thing to start considering is which teams could rest players in Week 18. As of now, six have a decent chance of being locked in to a playoff seed by then: The Cardinals, Bills, Packers, Patriots, Bucs and Titans. If you're planning on saving one of those for the last week of the season, just know there's a risk that they might have nothing to play for.
There could also be teams flat out tanking (like the Eagles did) in hopes of improving their draft stock, so Week 18 could be a free for all for which we throw team ratings out the window.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks
This week there are a ton of options, and not all of them are the usual suspects.
Let's not mess around any further — here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the way based on my model:
After multiple weeks with limited options, there are seven teams with a projected win percentage of 70% or higher.
Here are how those teams (and a few others) stack up with the key statistics to know:
Play whoever you want!
In all seriousness, there aren't a lot of bad plays this week. The only play my model doesn't like is the Chargers, who project to be the most-picked team. If any team is going to lose as double-digit favorites to a third-string quarterback making his first start, it's the Falcons — but the Chargers are a close second.
The Seahawks are the highest value play, but surprisingly are viable in two more weeks: Against the Bears and Lions at home in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.
The Titans and Packers are popular options, but not so popular that you need to fade either team. Both have plenty of opportunities to be used down the stretch, too, but I'll reiterate that Week 18 could see either of these teams resting for a playoff matchup.
Pick: Broncos (vs. Lions)
The Broncos are my favorite play. They're one of the biggest favorites on the board, project to be less than 10% picked, and have zero future value remaining.
If you don't have Denver available, there are plenty of other good options to pivot to — just make sure they fit your plan for the rest of the season.
