Updated NFL Survivor Pool Pick
I had the Browns pinned as my recommended pick earlier in the week, and now that we're within 24 hours of Sunday's kickoff, they're still the top option thanks to their matchup against a Lions team that will be starting its backup quarterback.
The Titans are trending toward 50% ownership, but if you are low on options, I would understand eating the chalk with Tennessee.
Also note that with Ben Roethlisberger back in the fold, the Chargers shouldn't be in play this week.
Note: The rest of this story was written earlier in the week.
Over the first seven weeks of the season, underdogs of seven or more points were 0-26 outright. Over the past three weeks, they've gone 7-10. All of these big upsets have caused calamity in NFL survivor pools, with many seeing 90% of entries knocked out.
If you're reading this and have been able to avoid the minefield, then congrats to you — but there is still work to be done. Let's get started.
NFL Survivor Pool Strategy
Here are the projected win probabilities for every team through the end of this season based on my model:
Before we dive into this week, let's jump ahead to Week 12.
Unless there's a major injury, the Cowboys are the only team with a projected win probability higher than 60% for next week. The team with the second-highest win probability is the (gulp)Jets. We'll have to see how the pick percentages shake out, but for now, we can pencil in the Cowboys for Week 12.
Now let's put the horse back in front of the cart and take a closer look at Week 11.
NFL Survivor Pool Options
Here are the best options for Week 11 and the key statistics to know:
The Titans are the public darling of Week 11 with nearly 50% of entries taking them against the Texans. Despite that popularity, the titans still remain a +EV option given their week-high win probability of 85%.
The Titans have the same expected value as the Browns and the Bucs at the top of the list this week, so any of those three options are in play.
It's unlikely you have the Bills available, but if you do, I would consider holding them for a later week even though they have the highest expected value because they're less than 1% picked.
The Patriots, 49ersand Panthers are all negative expected value plays this week. I would not be surprised to see the 49ers gain more steam after they handled the Rams on Monday night which would give even more reason to avoid the Niners.
NFL Survivor Pool Pick
Browns (vs. Lions)
The top-three options are roughly the same, so the tiebreaker comes down to future value, and the Browns have none.
You're more likely to lose with Cleveland than Tennessee this week, but you might need to use the Titans in Weeks 14, 17 or 18 if they're still fighting for playoff seeding.
If you don't have any of the top-four options — the Titans, Browns, Bucs or Bills — I'd go with the Patriots. Playing on the road on a short week isn't ideal, but you're effectively backed into a corner in this case.
