Late-week update: There have been a ton of injuries across the league this week, but the games I am targeting in Week 6 NFL survivor pools have been mostly unaffected — with Joe Mixon scheduled to play, I still like the Bengals as a contrarian pick in large pools.
In smaller pools, I'm still fine with taking the Colts, who are the biggest favorites of the week at -10 against the Texans (check real-time NFL odds here). But the Colts' projected pick percentage has moved up to 35%, which decreases their expected value.
Editor's note: The following was written earlier in the week.
What a week it almost was. More than 50% of pools took either Minnesota, New England or Baltimore in Week 5. All three picks looked to be in terrible shape at different points, but all three came through.
Instead, only a smidge of entries were eliminated with the Raiders and Panthers as small favorites.
The nearly 40% of entries that took the Buccaneers or Cowboys cruised to easy wins but have used some of the top teams early in the season, which could prove detrimental later.
There is a new wrinkle added to this and upcoming weeks: Byes. Fewer options to choose from will usually lead to the public gravitating toward the same plays. That turns out to be exactly the case this week as two teams are public darlings so far.
NFL Survivor Pool Projections
Before we get to those two teams, here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season. (Note that I have Daniel Jones projected as playing for Week 6 and Russel Wilson out for the next three projected games.)
And here are the best options for Week 6 along with their key statistics:
The public is drawn to the Rams and Colts this week. By the time the games kickoff, I would not be surprised to see 70% of picks on one of the two.
My model likes the Colts' chances way more than the Rams, even though Los Angeles is currently the bigger favorite in the betting market.
Even if you think my model is wrong about the Rams, looking at the schedule above, either of the following two weeks look like much better options. Next week the Rams take on the Lions at home, then travel to Houston to face the Texans — back-to-back opponents that happen to be the worst two teams according to my power ratings, which help power our NFL PRO Projections.
So the choice for me comes down to taking the Colts or going contrarian with another option. I think you can immediately rule out the Buccaneers and Bills because they both have so many better options remaining.
Do you trust the Bengals on the road? Do you trust the Steelers against Geno Smith? These questions are tough and you can see why people are much more comfortable just pushing the easy button with the Colts or Rams. But I prefer to take a swing.
NFL Survivor Pick For Week 6
Bengals (at Lions)
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
If you're in a small pool with some of your friends, you can easily take the Colts and feel good about it. But in larger pools — where you might be going to the end of the season — and especially in pools that you'll have to make double picks at some point, I like taking a contrarian swing here with the Bengals on the road.
