Updated NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Not much has changed since our initial analysis below, as the Colts are still the best NFL survivor pool pick of the week by far.
The only injury news to keep track of is Kyler Murray — if he's ruled out, I would switch off the Cardinals as an alternative option to the Colts and go with either the Rams or Bucs.
Editor's note: The rest of this story was written on Wednesday.
Another week in the books, another week in which 50% of NFL survivor pool entries were eliminated.
Last week, there wasn't one culprit, but two: The Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day and the Eagles on Sunday. Each of their losses knocked out about a quarter of pools, and another 15% were eliminated by the Chargers and Texans.
In what started out as a week with very few options, it's no surprise that many entires were knocked off. Ideally, you still had the Bengals left as an option and cruised to an easy victory over the Steelers as recommended. Either way, if you survived, congrats — now let's take a look at Week 13.
NFL Survivor Pool Picks
We don't have the same problem this week as we did last week. There are plenty of options to choose from with five teams having a projected win percentage of 70% or higher.
Here are the projected win percentages for the rest of the season based on my model:
It doesn't look like we have any more choke points remaining, although that will vary based on which teams you have remaining.
At this point, you should be mapping out your options for the rest of the season, but remember to think less about which teams you are planning to pick each week and more about having multiple options at your disposal. That way, ideally, you don't back yourself into a corner and are forced to take a team that's either really popular in a future week or — even worse — suffers a key quarterback injury and is no longer a viable option.
Here are the top options this week along with their key statistics:
First, let's talk about a team not on the table above.
The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites for their Sunday night showdown against the Broncos (check real-time NFL odds here), but Kansas City doesn't crack the list of top options this week. The reason feels similar to when the Broncos were big road underdogs against the Cowboys and we avoided picking Dallas in Week 9. My model has consistently been higher on the Broncos than the betting market — and correctly so thus far — so I'm avoiding the Chiefs.
Pick: Colts (at Texans)
If you have the Colts available, I think you have to take them this week. Most entrants have already used them, so you're getting a top option at very low ownership.
In the next tier of options, you have the Rams, Bucs and Cardinals. Normally I'd suggest taking the Cardinals because they're the lowest-picked of those three options, but if you have two of those teams, I would prefer the Rams because they have very little future value.
The Vikings are the team to avoid this week — they look safe playing against the winless Lions, but as we have seen this season, no team is safe.
