Final update: Not much has changed since we originally published my recommendations earlier in the week.
Most entries are flocking to the three big favorites — the Cardinals, Rams and Bucs (check real-time NFL odds here) — and Arizona is still my preferred play, despite being the most popular.
My current plan is to save the Rams for either Week 8 against the Texans or even potentially Week 13 when the Rams host the Jaguars.
Another week with no major upsets to shake up survivor pools. All of the big favorites won with ease in Week 6, and even my contrarian Bengals pick had an easy win in Detroit.
The biggest upset was the Titans on Monday, but only around 1% of entries were on the Bills, which makes sense given how many easy games they have upcoming on their schedule.
As the season progresses and the more you are able to save up the best teams and advance using lesser teams, the better position you will be in to make up ground on the field at the end.
In Week 7, the Bucs, Cardinals and Rams are all double-digit favorites. Which one of the three is the best pick? Or should you look elsewhere for good value?
NFL Survivor Pool Projections
Here are the projected win percentages for this week.
And here are the best options this week. The three big favorites mentioned above along with a couple dark horse options.
NFL Survivor Picks For Week 7
I'm projecting a whopping 45% of entries to take the Cardinals this week against the lowly Texans. With a current spread of -17.5, you can see why players are eager to lock in Arizona.
The surprising part is despite that popularity, the Cardinals still have a positive expected value. Usually a pick this popular is ripe for fading, but not necessarily this week.
The only team with a higher value is the Rams who get to face the Lions at home. My model respects the Lions more than the market, but Los Angeles is still expected to breeze through Week 7.
My model is a little low on the Bucs this week, but they are still a good pick especially if you are limited and already used the Rams and Cardinals.
The Saints are a really interesting contrarian play. Playing Jameis Winston on the road is terrifying in a survivor pool situation, but going against Geno Smith may be the only time it is palatable — especially if you have to take multiple picks.
Pick: Cardinals (vs. Texans)
It is extremely rare that I take such a popular team, but I like the play this week.
First, I like saving the Rams one more week. With more than 30% of entries taking them in Week 6 and another 10-15% taking them this week, that should depress their ownership next week.
This gives us a good opportunity to double dip and go against the Texans next week with Los Angeles at less than 50% ownership and again get positive expected value.
If you have to make double picks this week, I like the Saints as the second. It's dicey for sure, but I don't believe you can afford to take two of the three best teams this early in the season.
