Updated NFL Survivor Pool Pick
Skipping the Ravens turned out to be a prudent move as road teams continue to struggle on short weeks.
The Steelers still project to be the most popular NFL survivor pool team this week, although the pick percentage is falling into the 30-35% range rather than the 50% range as expected. Due to that popularity, I'd still try to avoid them for another option.
The Bills are still the top pick for Week 10.
Editor's note: The following was written earlier in the week.
Week 9 was pure chaos for NFL survivor pools.
For the second straight week, more than half of entries lost. Dallas was the main culprit as 30% of entries trusted the Cowboys to take down the Broncos. My model was correct to avoid Dallas, so I pivoted to the much safer Buffalo Bills.
Not safe enough.
The Bills were able to muster only six total points and lost as 14.5-point favorites to the Jaguars. With that loss, I was eliminated from my pools. But I know many of you reading are still alive and kicking, so I'll continue to present my analysis each week and give my thoughts on the best plays.
NFL Survivor Pool Projections
Here are projected win percentages for every team through the rest of the season based on my model:
And here are the best options for Week 10 with the key statistics to know:
The Steelers are the popular choice, and it's easy to see why — they're at home against the winless Detroit Lions. Not only that, but this is the last game that even looks like an option for the Steelers. That said, their popularity gives them a low expected value this week, so I would avoid them if possible.
The team my model dislikes the most compared to the market is the Ravens. Road teams historically haven't performed well on short weeks, which is the situation the Ravens find themselves in on Thursday against the Dolphins.
The same team that knocked me out last week is the best play this week. On the road against the Jets, the Bills have the highest projected chance to win and are going to be taken only 5% of the time.
The Cardinals, Colts and Bucs are all good options this week. Kyler Murray's status is still unclear, though. And while Colt McCoy led the Cardinals to a win last week, I would pivot to another option if he has to start again.
The Cowboys are an okay play, but not at the same level as the others. If your pool treats Thanksgiving as its own week, then I would save the Cowboys for then as they have the highest projected win percentage of the three games that day.
NFL Survivor Pool Pick
Bills (at Jets)
There is no better time to buy low on the Bills. The combo of projected win percentage and low ownership is perfect for survivor pools, if you still have them available.
