Final Update: On Wednesday, I liked the Rams when I had Tyrod Taylor projected to start for the Texans. Now with Davis Mills starting, I like the Rams even more — their projected win percentage went from 83.7% to 87.9% and they're still an unpopular pick because so many people used them the previous two weeks.
Editor's note: The following was written on Wednesday.
Another week completed, another week in which the vast majority of NFL survivor pool entries survived. For perspective, the most-picked team to be eliminated in Week 7 was the Panthers, who were still selected only 2% of the time.
As options start to dwindle, it's time to start mapping out the next five weeks — or even the rest of the season. These plans shouldn't be set in stone as you have to be willing to pivot if there are injuries or in order to avoid a very popular pick in a given week, but let's take a closer look at our options for Week 8 and beyond so we can strategize for the longterm.
NFL Survivor Pool Projections
Below you'll find the projected win percentages for every game for the rest of the season.
Note that I've added Week 18, although I'm not including that week in the "Games Left" column. The final week of the regular season often sees team resting starters, or in the case of the Eagles, just flat out tanking. I don't want projections for that week influencing my current decisions, but I did add it for those who want to start mapping out the rest of the season:
And here are the best options for Week 8, along with their key statistics:
There are three solid options this week: The Bengals, Rams and Bills.
The Bengals are the most popular pick coming off a blowout win of the Ravens and now facing the lowly Jets. And even at a 40% pick rate, the Bengals do have a positive expected value.
I can't fault anyone for taking the Bengals this week, especially if you've already used the Rams and/or Bills.
The Rams are a contrarian pick this week, mostly due to the fact that many players used them against either the Giants or Lions over the previous two weeks.
The Bills are heavy favorites at home against the Dolphins, but also have a ton of future value remaining: Week 10 looks especially intriguing as the Bills host the Jets and could be favorites of 20 or more points.
Then there's the Chiefs, who should be able to take care of the Giants at home — should — but there's no way I'm trusting Kansas City right now, especially with better options on the board.
Some sites allow users to pick teams weeks in advance, which is what could be happening with the Seahawks' 15% pick percentage — that could drop once people re-check their picks and realize Geno Smith is still at quarterback in place of Russell Wilson.
NFL Survivor Picks For Week 8
Rams (at Texans)
1 p.m. ET on Sunday
If you read last week's article, you knew this was my plan all along.
By avoiding the Rams the previous two weeks, you can now get them in a great spot against the Texans at a lower ownership. My model's projections factor in a potential Tyrod Taylor return, so if he can't go, then the Rams' edge in expected value over other options would increase even more.
If you couldn't resist the temptation and already used the Rams, the Bengals are a fine fallback option — I would also use them if you're in a pool that has to make two selections this week.
