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Note: All betting odds quoted in this article were accurate as of publication time.
NFL Survivor Pool Strategy 2024
Introduction to NFL Survivor Pool Strategy
NFL survivor pools—also known as eliminator, knockout, or last man standing pools—seem very simple in theory. First, you only need to pick one team per week. Second, your pick just needs to win its game (never mind covering the point spread) for you to survive and advance.
Yet one rule changes everything: in most survivor pools, you can only pick a specific team once. That single constraint transforms survivor pools into complex and challenging games. You can't repeatedly pick the best team in the NFL, or even the biggest favorite of each week.
Instead, you need to think strategically about how to craft the best sequence of picks through the 2024 NFL season, in the face of limited information and considerable uncertainty. And in order to win, you're going to need to take some calculated risks along the way.
The good news is that complicated games disproportionately favor skilled players. If you know what you're doing in NFL survivor pools, and if you understand how to evaluate the risks and potential rewards of every possible pick, you can double or even triple your odds to win.
However, you'll need three things to get to that level:
- An understanding of the key factors that drive survivor pool strategy
- The data and tools necessary to analyze picks in the smartest way
- The courage to take calculated risks when they present themselves
In this strategy guide, we’ll start by exploring some of the year-specific dynamics that survivor pool players will face in 2024. Then, we’ll dive into the strategy principles and data analysis methods that separate the pros from the Joes in NFL survivor pools.
Finally, we'll provide an overview of the relevant tools and data we offer at PoolGenius. Since 2017, our subscribers have won NFL survivor contests nearly three times as often as expected, and reported more than $6 million in prize winnings.
The 2024 NFL Survivor Pool Landscape
Every NFL season is different. Giving yourself the best chance to win a survivor pool requires a thorough analysis of season-specific dynamics, so let's begin by identifying three important strategy considerations for 2024.
The Projected Best NFL Teams In 2024
Understanding which teams are most likely to be the NFL's top contenders this year is the most basic starting point for annual survivor pool strategy analysis.
No preseason predictions are perfect, or even close. However, relative to other sources, the betting markets often provide the most reliable information. Based on Super Bowl odds at leading US-based sportsbooks, here is how things generally look:
- Tier 1: Chiefs, 49ers. Perhaps unsurprisingly, last season's Super Bowl opponents have similar implied Super Bowl win odds that are a step above any other team.
- Tier 2: Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Bengals, Texans. A step down from the Chiefs and 49ers is a relatively large tier of teams that are all fairly close to one another.
- Tier 3: Bills, Packers, Cowboys, Jets. These teams aren't that far behind several of the teams in Tier 2.
In general, the top teams listed above will typically be the most valuable arrows in your survivor pool quiver, and you will need to make wise decisions regarding when to fire them.
However, the specific week-to-week matchups that each team faces during the 2024 season also need to factor into your planning. After all, a decent team facing the worst team in the NFL will likely have better win odds than even the Chiefs will have against an average team.
Top “Future Value” Teams Will Tempt You Early
As it turns out, looking at weekly matchups reveals an important insight about the relative value of 2024's top teams in survivor pools. Based on preseason projections, in 13 of the first 17 weeks of the regular season, the most likely team to win hails from a group of just four teams.
The first three teams in that group are Kansas City, San Francisco, and Baltimore, the top three teams by Super Bowl futures odds. So no surprise there. The fourth team is Cincinnati.
You should consider those four teams as the most important chess pieces in your 2024 survivor arsenal, and choosing when to use them will be critical. That decision process starts right away, with the Bengals (vs. the Patriots) being the largest favorite of Week 1, and the 49ers (vs. the Jets) tied for the third-largest favorite of Week 1.
In fact, you could—and some entries will—plan to pick all four of these teams over the first five weeks of the season, in order to maximize their odds to survive the early season.
(Based on our win odds estimates, picking Cincinnati in Week 1, Baltimore in Week 2, San Francisco in Week 4, and Kansas City in Week 5, along with the Jets in Week 3, gives you a nearly 30% chance of having a survivor pool entry alive after the first five weeks of 2024. That's the highest odds you'll get, according to what we know before Week 1.)
However, simply surviving the early weeks is not the ultimate goal in NFL survivor pools. The goal is to outlast every other entry in your pool. Sometimes, making riskier picks in the early weeks, and saving more valuable teams for later as a result, is a much better strategy to win.
Put another way, using these four top teams early looks like the best way to survive until October, but other strategies give you a better chance to survive until mid-November and beyond. In fact, one mid-season week in particular looks like a key inflection point.
Week 9 Looks Like A Potential Choke Point
One week that projects as a strategic focal point in 2024 survivor pools is Week 9. Here’s a list of every team we currently project to have at least 65% win odds (which equates to being around a 4-point favorite) that week:
- Ravens (83% win odds) vs. Broncos
- Bengals (77% win odds) vs. Raiders
- Chiefs (77% win odds) vs. Buccaneers
Note that those are three of the four most valuable teams for 2024 survivor pools mentioned earlier, and you will have several tempting opportunities to pick them before Week 9 arrives.
Based on preseason data, the best other options for Week 9 look like Philadelphia (vs. Jacksonville), Buffalo (vs. Miami), or Tennessee (vs. New England). But if preseason win odds estimates generally hold, you'd be taking some substantial incremental risk with any of those picks, compared to picking the Ravens, Bengals, or Chiefs.
Of course, as the 2024 season progresses, some teams will outperform their preseason expectations, while other teams will underperform, and maybe things look different by the time Week 9 arrives. But even if the Eagles, Bills, or Titans end up being better than expected, that team will likely become a very popular pick in Week 9, since lots of players will have already used the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals.
In that case, you would still likely have a high-leverage opportunity to avoid the crowd in Week 9 while still picking one of the safest teams of the week. Those types of contrarian plays can be crucial for increasing your odds to win a survivor pool.
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Two Traits Of Sharp Survivor Players
Now that we've identified some of the season-specific dynamics facing survivor pool players in 2024, let's review some of the more general concepts of winning survivor pool strategy.
We'll first cover a couple qualitative attributes of sharp survivor players, then we'll dive into the quantitative data and analysis that drives their edge.
Customize Picks For Your Pool's Characteristics
Just like no two NFL seasons are the same, no two survivor pools are the same. Details like the total number of starting entries, the rules, the relative sophistication of the people who enter, the size of the prize pot, the past picks that each surviving entry has made, and even the weekly pick submission deadline are all factors that can differ from pool to pool.
What less skilled players don't realize is the degree to which these kinds of characteristics impact optimal pick strategy. In short, there’s no such thing as a universal "best survivor pick" for any given week, because it varies from pool to pool, and even from entry to entry within a pool.
For example, standard survivor pool rules require one pick per week, but some pools (especially larger ones) require double picks in later weeks, or maybe in earlier weeks too. That rule twist not only reduces your chances of surviving the season, but also alters your pick strategy in early weeks. You need to plan for the future even more so than in standard pools, to ensure you have enough viable pick options down the stretch when double picks kick in.
Similarly, pools that allow "strikes" or "buy-backs," enabling you to stay in the contest after an initial loss, also require a different approach to pick planning.
Another key strategy factor is pool size. For example, the best pick for a pool with thousands of entries still alive as of Week 8 will often differ from the best pick for a pool that's down to 10 entries remaining. In the bigger pool, you're most likely going to have to survive the season to win. The smaller pool is unlikely to last beyond Week 14 or 15, so there’d be no wisdom in saving a team with a juicy Week 16 matchup.
Have Reasonable Expectations
Besides understanding how a pool's characteristics influence strategy, sharp players recognize the incredibly risky nature of NFL survivor pools. As a result, they don't abandon a sound long-term pick making process based on some poor short-term results.
Here's a fun fact most people don't know. In the past decade, over half of all survivor pool entries nationwide have been eliminated by the end of NFL Week 4. That isn’t an average; it’s happened every season for the last ten years. It's also unsurprising if you just do the math.
Even if you pick a team with a 75-80% chance of winning each week (and it’s rare to find better win odds than that in today's NFL), your chances of picking three winners in a row are roughly 50/50. You should expect to do better than that in some years, and worse in other years.
So you shouldn't participate in NFL survivor pools unless you're prepared for the expectation of losing entries as early as Week 1 or Week 2. And when you hear someone claim that they've been playing in survivor pools forever and "always" or "usually" make it to at least Week 10 or 11, call out their BS immediately.
Playing like a pro in survivor pools requires you to understand and respect probability, and to accept the fact that two realities are beyond your control:
1) The odds of winning any survivor pool, especially bigger ones, are stacked against you to a huge degree. Even the best players may not realize winnings for years at a time, so patience is required. The pool wins come infrequently, but when they do come, they more than make up for many years of not winning.
(Important side note: You shorten the expected dry spells between pool wins by playing multiple entries and/or in multiple survivor pools each year, which most serious players do.)
2) No team is ever a lock to win. Especially in the NFL, top teams lose to bottom dwellers more often than most people think. When even the "safest" pick of a week can have a 1-in-5 (or greater) chance of losing, you must always be mentally prepared for your pick to lose.
What you can control is making the most advantageous pick(s) each week, and sticking to that strategy over the long term—even when you're running cold for a few years.
The Data The Pros Use To Win More Pools
Now let's delve deeper into the objective data that should guide your weekly survivor pick decisions, if your goal is to maximize your odds to win your pool.
We're going to get a bit nerdy here, but we do so unapologetically. Survivor pools are complicated enough that you can rarely get to the right answers based on gut instinct or even back-of-the-envelope level math. That's especially true once you get deeper into a season, and if you're playing a portfolio of multiple entries.
We'll start by reviewing the data you need to identify the best picks of the current week: pick popularity and win odds, which together determine Expected Value, or EV. Then we'll explore Future Value, a key metric for advance pick planning.
Pick Popularity: Why Unpopular Picks Are Good
Never forget that in order to win a survivor pool, you need your pick to win while the picks all of your opponents make lose. That can't happen if you all pick the same team.
On a more micro level, your expected winnings from a survivor pool increase when you survive a week and at least one of your opponents loses an entry. As a result, opportunities to avoid the crowd without significantly increasing your elimination risk can be incredibly valuable.
Identifying those opportunities requires that you project (with reasonable accuracy, at least) the teams that your opponents will end up picking. That may sound like a time-consuming, next-to-impossible task, but fortunately perfection isn't the goal.
As a start, you can often infer which picks are likely to be the most popular picks in your pool by reviewing pick popularity data published by survivor pool hosting sites like Yahoo! and ESPN.
(More recently, this data is getting a bit harder to find, and we're often surprised at the differences from site to site. As a result, our NFL Survivor Picks product combines data from multiple hosting sites into a more balanced index of expected pick popularity.)
From there, you can potentially apply some adjustments based on your knowledge of your specific pool and/or opponents. For example, if you know that 90% of the entries still alive in your pool have already picked the 49ers, but 20% of entries nationally are picking the 49ers in the current week, then it will be impossible for your pool to reflect the national average.
Win Odds: Why Not All Popular Picks Are Bad
While you should often try to avoid very popular picks, there’s no hard and fast rule. In fact, the most important rule when it comes to survivor pool strategy is to always be skeptical of any advice that sounds too absolute. (Looking at you, "never pick a road team.")
The simple advice to "always avoid the most popular pick of the week," which we've seen published elsewhere, may be well-intentioned. However, reality is more nuanced. The best pick almost always depends on multiple factors, including elimination risk, which is quantitatively expressed as win odds—the percentage chance that a team wins its game.
Multiple sites publish computer-generated win odds for every NFL game, though it pays to track their long term accuracy, and averaging win odds from a few top systems may improve overall accuracy. Also, free online odds converters can translate a sportsbook's moneyline odds for a team into an implied win probability. Just be aware that moneyline odds include "juice" from the sportsbook that needs to be adjusted out in order to get true implied win odds.
In survivor pools, it's crucial to evaluate a team's win odds in relative terms as well as absolute terms. For example, win odds of 75% or better are great in the NFL; they don't often get much higher than that. However, if three different teams have 70-75% win odds in a given week, then picking one of them may not confer much advantage over most of your opponents.
In comparison, picking a team with 75% win odds, while most of your opponents can only pick a team with win odds of 65% or less, puts you in a great spot.
So the key question is not just, "How risky is picking this team?" Instead, it's "How does my chance of elimination change if I pick this team, compared to choosing another safer alternative if one is available, and compared to the teams most of my opponents will be picking?"
Expected Value: Measuring Risk vs. Reward
In a given week, a team's pick popularity and its win odds need to be evaluated in tandem, because a natural tension typically exists between them. Teams with higher win odds (good) are usually more popular picks (bad), and vice versa.
Enter Expected Value, or "EV" for short. In survivor pools, EV is a single number that represents an overall "risk vs. reward" rating for every possible pick in a given week.
EV is typically centered around the number one (1.00). An EV greater than 1.00 signifies a good pick (more technically, a pick that will increase your expected winnings from the pool), and an EV less than 1.00 signifies a bad pick (one that will decrease your expected winnings).
The math behind EV considers every possible outcome scenario in a given week. For instance:
- In some outcomes, your survivor pick wins, but your expected winnings don't increase by very much because nearly all of your opponents' picks also won.
- In other outcomes, you strike gold when your pick wins and several popular picks you avoided that week all lose. Your expected pool winnings skyrocket.
- There are many potential outcome scenarios in between these two extremes.
When all the scenario calculations are done, picking the team with the highest EV will maximize your expected winnings from your survivor pool. That pick provides the best balance of risk and reward out of all the options available in the current week.
(One practical challenge is that calculating survivor pick EV is not easy. Our NFL Survivor Picks product not only calculates EV for every possible pick, but also adjusts each team's EV based on your specific pool's characteristics, which impact the math.)
Future Value: Playing The Long Game
EV-driven pick strategy is crucial if you want to win more survivor pools in the long run. Still, it's not a silver bullet on its own, because it only considers the current week.
Ideally, you want to maximize the total combined EV of all the picks you will need to make until your survivor pool ends (hopefully, when you win it). In bigger pools with 1,000 or more entries, you'll probably need to survive the entire season to win. In smaller pools, the total number of picks you will need to make can be estimated based on the number of entries left.
In practice, maximizing EV across a series of future picks requires projecting win odds and pick popularity for every team, in every future week. Then, you can calculate projected EVs for every future week, and use those projections to guide your current week pick decisions.
For example, the Ravens might be the biggest favorite of 2024 Week 2, when they play the Raiders. Even though Baltimore will probably be a relatively popular survivor pick, their win odds may be high enough that they still grade out as a high-EV pick. But if the EV of picking the Ravens in a later week of the season projects to be even higher, and your pool will almost certainly still be going on by then, you should consider saving Baltimore.
Estimating a team's overall future value is still based on data and math, but the calculations rely on lots of informed assumptions about the future. So the process involves both art and science, and different approaches may yield at least slightly different conclusions. It's also no easy feat, because while future win odds are somewhat easy to find, projecting future pick popularity is much more difficult and time-consuming.
Still, the downsides of all this effort and uncertainty are counterbalanced by the strategic benefits of future pick planning. Understanding your best chances to engineer high leverage, contrarian pick opportunities in future weeks—even if not all of them pan out—is a true badge of survivor pool pros. Especially if you're all but certain that you will need to survive the season in order win your pool, it's silly not to plan for it from the very beginning.
In our NFL Survivor Picks product, a team's Future Value is a single numerical metric driven by future week EV projections, but also influenced by pool-specific characteristics that impact how much longer a pool is expected to last (e.g. the total number of entries still alive, whether or not it requires double picks in future weeks).
We then determine our customized survivor pick rankings for a given week by considering both current week EV and Future Value for the subscriber's pool in question.
Crystal Ball Not Required
Many survivor pool players discount future week pick planning because the future is never 100% certain. "It's not even worth thinking about Week 10 or Week 14," they posit in Week 1, "because things in the NFL might look completely different in November or December."
Of course, there is always a chance that a top team loses its star quarterback, or that a struggling team suddenly turns things around in another two or four or eight weeks. But survivor pool strategy requires taking risks and being comfortable with uncertainty, and the potential rewards of reasonably intelligent future pick planning can be game-changing.
Plus, the future of an NFL season is not nearly as unpredictable as some people make it out to be. More often than not, a team that was expected to be good before the regular season started, and has been good in the early weeks, is likely to still be good in a month or two. The exception cases that happen each year just tend to get a lot of attention.
On balance, basing your pick strategy on mostly correct assumptions about the future will most likely still be a net plus. It's certainly a much better strategy than not planning at all for the future, and ending up in a very tough spot that could have been avoided.
The opposite case can also be just as bad. Let's say you decide to save a team for a relatively easy matchup in Week 10, without also projecting future pick popularity. Then Week 10 arrives, only for you to discover that 45% of your opponents had the same idea, and making that pick is now a sub-1.00 EV decision.
In general, teams with the most Future Value tend to project as big favorites in multiple games throughout the season, but also have high pick popularity in an early week or two. In those cases, players who overvalue safety, don't understand EV, or think the future is completely unpredictable will lean toward taking the "sure thing" early.
That bias can set up high-EV future pick opportunities for players willing to take on a bit more elimination risk in the beginning of the season.
Strategy Study 1: San Francisco Last Year
Now that we've reviewed the objective data that sharp survivor pool players use to maximize their edge (pick popularity, win odds, EV, and Future Value), let's explore a few case studies from last season to see how these metrics interact and factor into decision making.
For a mid-sized survivor pool with standard rules, the table below highlights the win odds, pick popularity, and EV for the San Francisco 49ers in all games where they were favored by at least a touchdown last season. San Francisco had high Future Value in survivor pools, often emerging as one of the top favorites in multiple weeks.
(As a reminder, an EV above 1.00 signifies a pick that will increase your expected pool winnings. Although picking San Francisco carried an EV above 1.00 in many weeks last year, you can see how the EV increases in later weeks, after many entries had already used them.)
| Week | Matchup | Odds | Pick % | EV | EV Rank | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | -7.5 vs. LA | 74% | 9% | 1.11 | 1st | W |
| 3 | -10.5 vs. NYG | 81% | 16% | 1.05 | 3rd | W |
| 4 | -14.5 vs. ARI | 88% | 31% | 1.13 | 1st | W |
| 6 | -10 @ CLE | 79% | 3% | 1.02 | 3rd | L |
| 7 | -7 @ MIN | 72% | 4% | 1.25 | 1st | L |
| 11 | -13.5 vs. TB | 86% | 0.09 | 1.21 | 2nd | W |
| 12 | -7 @ SEA | 73% | 3% | 1.23 | 5th | W |
| 14 | -14.5 vs. SEA | 87% | 4% | 1.40 | 1st | W |
| 15 | -12 @ ARI | 84% | 8% | 1.32 | 1st | W |
| 16 | -14 @ WAS | 87% | 5% | 1.27 | 1st | W |
The Week 4 matchup against Arizona was tied for San Francisco's easiest expected win all season, with the 49ers favored by a whopping 14.5 points. Especially since it was a relatively early week when lots of players still had the 49ers to burn, it's not surprising that San Francisco's pick popularity was also the highest it would be all year, at 31%.
However, Week 4 wasn't the optimal week to pick the 49ers last year. Despite being a solid pick with a strong EV (sky-high win odds more than outweighed relatively high pick popularity), San Francisco ended up having even higher EV in six other weeks.
Factors driving the higher EV weeks included San Francisco's much lower pick popularity later in the year (a big one) as well as the alternative picks available to survivor pool players each week, most of which were much riskier in terms of win odds.
Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and taking on extra elimination risk to avoid using San Francisco in Week 4 didn't end up benefiting everyone. For example, entries that took advantage of fantastic EV for the 49ers in Week 7 were eliminated by an upset loss to Minnesota.
At the same time, using a similar rationale to save San Francisco to pick in Week 11 or 14 proved highly rewarding for players that survived that far. In Week 11, 35% of survivor entries nationwide were eliminated after picking riskier Washington. In Week 14, nearly 60% of entries still alive in a typical pool were wiped out when three other more popular picks all lost.
Strategy Study 2: Fade Or Follow Popular Picks?
Last season, the five most popular NFL survivor pool picks, in terms of the percentage of still-alive entries nationwide picking them in particular week, were:
- Week 5: Miami (vs. NY Giants), 40% pick popularity
- Week 5: Detroit (vs.Carolina), 37% pick popularity
- Week 7: Seattle (vs. Arizona), 55% pick popularity
- Week 9: Cleveland (vs. Arizona), 53% pick popularity
- Week 10: Dallas (vs. NY Giants), 44% pick popularity
Here is a breakdown of the win odds, popularity, and EV for each of those teams:
| Week | Matchup | Odds | Pick % | EV | EV Rank | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | MIA (-13) vs. NYG | 85% | 40% | 1.07 | 1st | W |
| 5 | DET (-10) vs. CAR | 79% | 37% | 0.97 | 5th | W |
| 7 | SEA (-10) vs. ARI | 84% | 55% | 0.92 | 13th | W |
| 9 | CLE (-10) vs. ARI | 84% | 53% | 0.98 | 13th | W |
| 10 | DAL (-17.5) vs. NYG | 92% | 44% | 1.16 | 1st | W |
You might think that very high pick popularity makes the argument to avoid all of these picks. But that is not the case, since other factors like relative elimination risk and Future Value also matter. Considering both risk and reward, Dallas in Week 10 actually ended up being a high EV pick despite its high popularity.
In fact, Dallas was the most frequent survivor pick recommendation that we made to PoolGenius subscribers in Week 10. Up to that point, our week-to-week advice to most subscribers had recommended saving Dallas at a high rate, partly with Week 10 in mind.
However, we mostly advised subscribers to avoid Detroit in Week 5, and our recommendations were well below the public pick rate for both Miami in Week 5 and Seattle in Week 7. The reasons why differed:
- Detroit and Miami both being super popular in Week 5 created a dynamic where you potentially could avoid not one, but two popular teams in the same week, and reap insane upside if both of them got upset. Detroit's lower EV and lower Future Value made them a near-total fade.
- Miami, on the other hand, had a pretty good EV in Week 5, but their Future Value was high enough that it warranted consideration, especially in pools expected to run longer and/or require more future picks. So Miami was a "good for some, not for others" case.
- Seattle had extremely high popularity, and they weren't a massive favorite. That made some other riskier but less popular teams solid EV plays, to potentially exploit a situation where one unlucky loss could eliminate more than half of your pool opponents.
As it turns out, all five of the most popular survivor picks of 2023 won. But that doesn't change the fact that they each had a unique strategic profile, and going in, one of them was actually a great pick despite its popularity. In Week 10, following a "golden rule" to always avoid the most popular pick of the week would have been to your detriment.
Sometimes, the boring and obvious pick does make sense, especially in a week with no compelling alternatives. A lot of factors play into survivor pick analysis, and the only way to identify your best options is to crunch the numbers.
How To Get Expert 2024 NFL Survivor Picks
Survivor pools are easy to play, but maximizing your odds to win is complicated, and the payoffs still may take years to materialize. Only you can decide if you have the patience and mental fortitude to stay committed to optimal strategy over the long term.
The other major challenge is collecting all the data and doing all the math required to analyze each week's potential picks in the most intelligent way. Most people either don't have the skills or the time to perform the level of analysis we laid out in this article, so in most cases, it's not even a choice. The good news is, that problem is solvable.
NFL Survivor Picks from PoolGenius provides all the data (win odds, pick popularity, EV, Future Value, and more) that you need to establish a long-term edge in survivor pools. The product also offers many more unique features that help you save time and play like a pro:
- Weekly pick recommendations customized for your pool's size and rules
- Customized picks for an unlimited number of pools
- Multi-entry pick optimization (up to 30 picks/week)
- Historical pick tracking for all your survivor pool entries
- Season Planner tool to model and compare future pick strategies
- Optimal Path tool to identify pick paths most likely to survive the season
- EV Calculator tool to use your own win odds or popularity estimates
- Weekly strategy content, Q&A forum, and live chats with PoolGenius experts
Last but not least, all the data in the product updates multiple times per day, so you base your pick decisions on the latest info. Data like win odds and pick popularity can often shift over the course of an NFL week, so staying up to date is critical. Best of all, it can also help you exploit value opportunities that your opponents miss.
Good luck in your 2024 survivor pools, and just click the links below to check out the product and get some great discounts:
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| NFL Survivor Picks from PoolGenius |
| Season Discounts via Action Network |
| Free Trial Offer (Survivor, Pick'em, Betting) |
