NFL Thanksgiving Betting Trends: Don’t Ignore Thursday’s Favorites

NFL Thanksgiving Betting Trends: Don’t Ignore Thursday’s Favorites article feature image
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Pictured: Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy and Trent Williams. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

Thanksgiving is one of the best NFL betting days of the year.

There's nothing quite like sweating some bets out of the corner of your eye while Aunt Karen is trying to ask you questions about your job.

The favorites have historically been the profitable pick on Thanksgiving, and there are plenty of big favorites to bet on Thursday.

Since 2004, favorites are 46-8 straight up (SU) and 36-18 against the spread (ATS) on Thanksgiving. A $100 bettor would be up $1,620 by betting every favorite — against the spread — on Thanksgiving.

The 49ers are the only road favorite on Thursday. Road favorites are 24-1 straight-up and 19-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2004. The 49ers are 7.5-point favorites against the Seahawks.

Speaking of favorites of seven points or more, they are even more profitable on Thanksgiving. Touchdown favorites are 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2006.

As of now, all three of Thursday's favorites are favored by a touchdown or more. If that holds, this will be the first time all three games have had touchdown favorites since 2006, when the NFL added a third game. The last time all games had a touchdown or more favorite was 2001 — Brian Griese vs. Ryan Leaf and Brett Favre vs. Charlie Batch were the quarterback matchups that day.

If you are enticed by taking an underdog to win outright on Thursday, there have been two outright upsets by underdogs of seven or more points since 1993. It was the Bears (+7.5) over the Packers in 2015 and the Raiders (+7) over the Cowboys in 2021.

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About the Author
Chase is a news writer at The Action Network. He specializes in college sports, golf and soccer but will watch anything you can bet on. Catch him on the golf course either carrying a bag or playing with his buddies.

Follow Chase Howell @chasehowell__ on Twitter/X.

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