Welcome to Thanksgiving week! The NFL has four games on tap for Thursday and Friday to lead us into the weekend slate.
Let's look at this week's Thanksgiving slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Here's the Thanksigiving, Week 13 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Nov. 26, at 12 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Restore The Roar
Lions Big Fav on Thanksgiving
The Lions are currently 10.5-point favorites on Thanksgiving over the Bears. This would be Detroit's biggest favorite on Thanksgiving since 1968, as a 12-pt favorite against the Eagles
Unfortunately for the Lions, Thanksgiving hasn't been a winning day lately. Jared Goff and Dan Campbell are 0-3 SU together on the holiday (2-1 ATS).
Chalk City
Favorites Reign on Turkey Day
Favorites have historically dominated on Thanksgiving.
- Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 48-9 straight up (SU) and 38-19 against the spread (ATS).
- Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
- In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS.
Big Dog Time
More Upsets Than Ever
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are 36-23-2 ATS this season. A $100 bettor taking each on the moneyline would be up $1,000 for a +16% ROI (19-43 SU).
Through 12 weeks, the 19 SU wins for teams +6 or higher is the most since there was also exactly 19 back in 2004.
Home Cooking
All Favorites
In 2024, there are no road favorites on Thanksgiving. All three home teams are listed as a favorite as of now – the first time since 2013 and 2014 there are no road favs on Thanksgiving.
Crowd Movement
Public Feast
Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.
Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 23-9 ATS
Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 34-19 ATS
Public sides, who are favorites, are 30-14 ATS
Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and 11 of the past 12 years
Since 2005, eight teams have closed with 74% or more of the spread tickets on Thanksgiving and those sides went 9-0 SU and ATS.
Biggest Public Sides on Thanksgiving Since 2005
82%: 2023 49ers, -7 at SEA (W, 31-13)
80%: 2019 Saints, -7 at ATL (W, 26-18)
79%: 2005 Falcons, -3 at DET (W, 27-7)
77%: 2012 Patriots, -7 at NYJ (W, 49-19)
77%: 2008 Cowboys, -11.5 vs. SEA (W, 34-9)
75%: 2010 Patriots, -6 at DET (W, 45-24)
75%: 2008 Titans, -11 at DET (W, 47-10)
74%: 2016 Steelers, -8.5 at IND (W, 28-7)
74%: 2007 Colts, -13.5 at ATL (W, 31-13)
Deep Rooted
Cowboys Covering Issues
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thanksgiving games after covering vs. Washington last year. They are 2-11 ATS in their past 13 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 — failing to cover the spread by 9.2 PPG.
Dallas won and covered on Thanksgiving last year, they haven’t won and covered consecutive games on Thanksgiving since 2008-09 behind Tony Romo.
Favorites are 36-19 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005. The Cowboys are 6-9 ATS as favorites, the rest of the NFL is 30-10 ATS on Thanksgiving.
A Cold Night
Dolphins Travel To Lambeau center=
Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°, with about 7-10 MPH winds.
Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times with the Dolphins, Miami is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 18 PPG.
In 32° temperatures or colder in franchise history, they are 11-28 SU, including losing their last nine games in cold temperatures, since beating the Steelers in 2013 behind Ryan Tannehill.
Favorites in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since they started the 3-game holiday series back in 2006.
Low Totals
Giants-Cowboys Low O/U
In the last 20 years, only three games on Thanksgiving have closed with an over/under below 40:
2019: Bears at Lions, 37.5 (24-20 final)
2006: Broncos at Chiefs, 39 (19-10 final)
2006: Bucs at Cowboys, 39 (38-10 final)
Can't Cover
Chiefs Historic Stretch
As a favorite of 6 pts or more, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS this season. As a favorite of above a full TD (7.5 or more), they are 4-0 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Forget the fact KC is undefeated SU and defeated ATS, since 1990, only one team has played at least six games as a 6+ point favorite in their first 11 games and had no covers ATS, the 1997 Packers, who were coming off a Super Bowl win in 1996, made it back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and lost to the Broncos.
A Bear Market?
Chicago's Big Line
A Bears upset of the Lions on Thanksgiving depending on the closing line could make history.
Biggest Upsets on Thanksgiving since 1980
1993 — Dolphins +10 over DAL
2023 – Packers +8.5 over DET
2015 — Bears +7.5 over GB
1986 — Seahawks +7.5 over DAL
Every NFL Thanksgiving and Black Friday Game
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Bears Face the OT Grind
➤The Bears and Vikings played an overtime game in Week 12. Historically, teams off an overtime game, playing on 7 days rest or less, who face a team who isn't off the extra session, win just 43% of games over the last decade, covering just 44% of them.
Thanksgiving Blowouts: Double-Digit Favorites Shine
➤Favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005 and 11-0 ATS in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Teams favored by 10 pts or more are 10-2 ATS since 2005 and 15-4 ATS since 1980.
Lions’ ATS Thanksgiving Record Shows Recent Improvement
➤Lions are 8-12 ATS on Thanksgiving over the last 20 years. Recently, they’ve been better, going 8-4 ATS since 2012.
Big Favorites Feast on Thanksgiving Success
➤In Wild Card era (since 1990), favorites of 7 pts or more on Thanksgiving are 29-5 SU and 25-9 ATS.
Public Fade of Lions ATS on Thanksgiving is Costly
➤Since 2005, the public has faded the Lions ATS 12 times on Thanksgiving (spread % of 51% or more on opp) — DET is 0-12 SU in those games (3-9 ATS).
Detroit’s Thanksgiving Favorites Club
➤This is the Lions 2nd straight game as a favorite on Thanksgiving, first time they’ve done that since 2013-16.
DET QBs favored on Thanksgiving since 2000: Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford and Charlie Batch.
Public Favorites Dominate Thanksgiving Spreads
➤Public favorites on Thanksgiving, or teams with 51% of the tickets or more who are listed as a favorite, are 30-14 ATS (68%) since 2005 and they are .500 ATS or better in nine straight seasons.
Lions Break Thanksgiving Favorites Trend
➤Last year the Lions lost as favorites on Thanksgiving to the Packers breaking this trend.
Lions on Thanksgiving since 2004:
as Favorite: 4-1 SU
as Underdog: 0-15 SU
Lions Thanksgiving Odds: Favorites vs. Underdogs
➤Lions are 1-17 SU as an underdog on Thanksgiving since 2000.
Lions are 3-19 SU, 8-14 ATS as a 'dog on Thanksgiving in Wild Card era (since 1990)
DET is 8-1 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the past 30 years
DET is 10-2 SU as a favorite on Thanksgiving in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
The over is 8-4 in the past 12 Lions games on Thanksgiving.
Goff’s Thanksgiving Record: Close but No Wins
➤Goff on Thanksgiving: 0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS
Lost by 7 pts in 2023
Lost by 3 pts in 2022
Lost by 2 pts in 2021
The Lions are 0-3 SU on Thanksgiving under Dan Campbell.
Bears Riding a Thanksgiving Win Streak
➤Bears have won four consecutive games SU on Thanksgiving over the last decade. Prior to that stretch, Chicago was 4-8 SU on Thanksgiving between 1950-2014.
Rookie QBs Struggle on Thanksgiving Outside Cowboys and Lions
➤Caleb Williams will be the 11th rookie QB to start on Thanksgiving since 2000. Those rookie QBs are 4-6 SU, but if you take out the Cowboys and Lions, they are just 1-3 SU in those games.
Goff’s Mixed Success on Short Rest
➤Goff has played 16 games on short rest in his career, he is 7-12 SU, 11-8 ATS. He’s covered 7 of his past 9 starts on short rest, but he’s just 2-6 SU on short rest with the Lions and 3-9 SU on short rest in his past 12 starts.
Goff’s Dominance in NFC North Matchups
➤With the Lions, Jared Goff is 15-5 ATS vs. NFC North. Since 2018 with the Lions and Rams, Goff is 25-11-1 ATS vs. his own division, 2nd-best mark of 123 QBs behind just Dak Prescott.
Lions are 2-0 ATS vs. NFC North this season, with this week being their first home division home game.
Goff’s 15-5 ATS mark vs. NFC North is 2nd-best of any QB last 20 years behind just Aaron Rodgers.
Goff’s Home ATS Streak Keeps Rolling
➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 4-1 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 34-19-2 ATS (64%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Double-Digit Favorite Goff: Solid Record
➤In his career, Goff has closed as a double-digit favorite 12 times. His teams are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS. This would be the 3rd time since joining the Lions he closes as a double-digit favorite after beating the Titans 52-14 and the Jaguars 52-6.
Bears Improve ATS in Recent NFC North Battles
➤The Bears are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games vs. NFC North.
Bears’ Divisional Fade Continues Despite Recent ATS Wins
➤Historically, the Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going 9-21-2 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,242.
Bears’ Home Success vs. Road Struggles
➤Since the start of 2022, the Bears are 14-31 SU. They're 4-4 SU at night and 10-27 SU in all other spots.
The Bears' recent historic road woes have now been noticed by bettors. They’ve lost 19 consecutive road games SU on a Sunday. They are 0-4 SU on the road this year and 3-18 SU last three years.
This year, the Bears are 3-3 SU at home and 8-6 since the start of last season.
Caleb Williams Sacked and Scoring Trends
➤Caleb Williams has been sacked 44 times through 11 games — most for any QB this season.
Through 11 games, it's the most any Bears QB since sacks tracked. Since 2000, only 2020 Carson Wentz and 2005 David Carr had 44+ sacks in 11 games with a lower Y/A than Caleb’s 6.3.
When Caleb gets sacked 4+ times, they are 0-4 SU, scoring 41 pts in four games.
When he’s sacked 3 or less times, they are 4-3 SU, averaging 26.7 PPG and scoring 20+ in 6 of 7 games.
Eberflus Struggles Against Winning Teams
➤Matt Eberflus has faced 17 teams who are above .500 SU with the Bears and Chicago is 2-15 SU. Both wins came 13 days apart, both vs. divisional opponents in the Lions and Vikings last year. He is 1-15 SU vs. teams with a 60%+ win pct – that is the fewest such wins in a 15+ game sample for any head coach over the last 20 years.
Cooper Rush Shines on Short Rest
➤Cooper Rush has made two career starts on short rest. Both have come against the Commanders and both were outright wins SU/ATS.
It is very rare for a team to win as an underdog on short rest in their previous game and then play on short rest again – this would be the first time since 2016 Jets and just the 2nd time since 2011. Last 20 years, teams in this spot are 0-3 SU, not scoring more than 17 pts in any of the games.
Cowboys Break Losing Streak, Face Tough Odds
➤The Cowboys ended their 5-game SU/ATS losing streak last week vs. Commanders, their longest such streak since 2010.
Teams are 15-31 SU after breaking a 5+ game SU/ATS losing streak since 1990 – but 7-4 SU/ATS when listed as a favorite in that game.
Cowboys' Third Quarter Troubles
➤Cowboys have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 2-9 ATS in the third quarter, the worst mark in the NFL. Since the start of last season, Dallas is just 7-21 ATS in the third quarter.
Cowboys' Thanksgiving Struggles ATS
➤Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five Thanksgiving games after covering vs. Washington last year. They are 2-11 ATS in their past 13 Thanksgiving games dating back to 2011 — failing to cover the spread by 9.2 PPG and 7-12 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.
Cowboys are also 1-6 against the first half spread on Thanksgiving, covering last year vs. Washington. They are 2-12 1H ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.
Consecutive Thanksgiving Wins Elude Dallas
➤Dallas won and covered on Thanksgiving last year, they haven’t won and covered consecutive games on Thanksgiving since 2008-09 behind Tony Romo.
Thanksgiving Overs: A Cowboys Trend
➤Over has been the play for Cowboys on Thanksgiving. Over has won 4 straight, Dallas’ 1st 4+ game over stretch on Thanksgiving since 1980. The over is 10-4 in past 14 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving since 2010.
Thanksgiving Totals Trend Above 40
➤No game on Thanksgiving has closed with a total of 40 or less since 2019 and only one Thanksgiving game closed under 40 since the 2007 season – that 2019 game between Bears and Mitch Trubisky and Lions and David Blough.
Favorites Dominate Thanksgiving ATS
➤Favorites are 36-19 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005. The Cowboys are 6-9 ATS as favorites, the rest of the NFL is 30-10 ATS on Thanksgiving.
McCarthy's Thanksgiving QB Performance
➤On Thanksgiving, Mike McCarthy was 3-1 ATS with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers and 1-4 ATS with all other QBs.
McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his QB. He's 18-20 ATS with all other QBs.
Dallas Faces Unique Post-Win Short Rest Spot
➤Two ways to look at Dallas’ win in Washington.
Cowboys are off a win as underdogs last week vs. Commanders. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 94-128 SU and 98-119-5 ATS, with the under cashing at a 56% clip.
Most would assume a letdown from Dallas’ side. Since 2018, teams off a SU win as a road dog vs. divisional opponent the week before are actually 68-46-4 ATS (60%) in their next game.
Cowboys’ Historic Home Struggles
➤The Cowboys have really struggled at home entering this game. They’ve trailed by 7 pts or more at the half at home in six straight games, being outscored 141-51.
Worst point differential by a team through their first 5 home games of a season:
-123 by the 2013 Jaguars
-119 by the 1966 Falcons
-118 by the 2024 Cowboys
Winless Home Cowboys Join Thanksgiving History
➤The 2024 Cowboys will be just the 4th team since 2000 to play at home on Thanksgiving without a SU home win that season with the 2021, 2008 and 2001 Lions – all three lost outright on Thanksgiving. The last Cowboys team to do this was back in 1989.
Giants’ Thanksgiving Woes
➤Giants have played four times on Thanksgiving over the last 40 years and they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, the one cover did come from Brian Daboll in 2022, who lost 28-20 to the Cowboys. The Giants last win on Thanksgiving came back in 1982 against the Lions, Lawrence Taylor had a 97-yd INT return for a TD to win the game.
Giants Seek to Bounce Back After Offensive Collapse
➤Giants scored just 7 pts last week and got routed by the Bucs, 30-7. Last 15 years, only five teams have entered Thanksgiving scoring 7 or less in their previous game, they are 4-1 SU/ATS.
Giants’ Non-Sunday Struggles Continue
➤On games played outside of a Sunday, the Giants have been terrible. They are 2-22 SU since the start of the 2017 season. Daniel Jones was 0-16 SU in that spot, including a 1-5 SU mark from Eli Manning, while Tommy DeVito is 1-1 SU with one of those wins.
Overall, the Giants have lost nine consecutive games played on a Thursday – with their last win coming back in 2015 by Eli Manning.
DeVito’s Underwhelming Advanced Metrics
➤Since the start of the 2023 season, we’ve had 64 QBs have at least 100 plays. DeVito is 56th in EPA/play, sandwiched between Zach Wilson and Bryce Young. He is 63rd in success rate, sandwiched between Bailey Zappe and Drew Lock and he’s 59th in aDOT, too.
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Packers' Thanksgiving Legacy
➤Packers have played on Thanksgiving eight times since 2000. They are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS. Green Bay beat the Lions as big underdogs last year – the 2nd-biggest upset on Thanksgiving since 1980.
This will be just the 2nd time Green Bay plays at home on Thanksgiving in the last 100 years. They lost in 2015 at home vs. the Bears. Green Bay last won at home on Thanksgiving back in 1923 under coach Curly Lambeau against the Hammond Pros.
Thanksgiving Night Unders Trend
➤Unders in Thanksgiving night games are 11-6 since 2006, going under the total by 4.2 PPG. When the total is 43 or higher, they are 8-3 to the under in that span.
Favorites Thrive in Thanksgiving Night Games
➤Favorites in night games on Thanksgiving are 13-4 ATS since they started the 3-game holiday series back in 2006.
Dolphins' Perfect Thanksgiving ATS Record
➤This will be the Dolphins first game on Thanksgiving since 2011, when they faced the Cowboys. Since 2000, Miami has played three Thanksgiving games, they are 3-0 ATS in those games.
LaFleur’s Short Rest Challenges
➤Matt LaFleur has coached 14 total games with the Packers where they are on short rest. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 2-6 ATS as a favorite. They are 6-1 ATS on the road and just 1-6 ATS at home in Lambeau.
Jordan Love has played two home games on short rest with Green Bay, losing exactly 34-20 in both games vs. Lions and Bucs.
NFC North's Dominance ATS
➤The NFC North is now 23-11 ATS (68%) entering Week 13 — the 3rd-best ATS win pct for any division through 12 weeks in the Wild Card era (since 1990), behind the 2022 and 2016 NFC East.
Jordan Love’s Mixed Results as a Favorite
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 5-7 ATS as a favorite in his short career and 10-7 ATS as an underdog.
Love has played at home 13 times, he is just 7-6 ATS, but when a warm weather team comes to GB – ARI, HOU, LA, NO, SF, TB – he is 5-2 ATS, covering the spread by over 5 PPG.
Dolphins Face Chilling Lambeau Conditions
➤Average temperature in Lambeau Field Thursday night is expected to be just under 30°, with about 7-10 MPH winds.
Tua has played in 40° temperatures or colder four times with the Dolphins, Miami is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 18 PPG.
In the 3 of those 4 games that also had wind, Tua has scored 39 total pts in 3 games.
Last 20 years, Dolphins have played 27 total games in 40° temperatures or colder, they are 8-19 SU, including 1-10 SU in their last 11 games.
In 32° temperatures or colder in franchise history, they are 11-28 SU, including losing their last nine games in cold temperatures, since beating the Steelers in 2013 behind Ryan Tannehill.
Tua’s Night Game Struggles
➤Tua Tagovailoa has played in 13 night games (5-8 SU, 4-9 ATS), 2 morning games (0-2 SU/ATS) and one Friday game (1-0 SU/ATS) in his career – a total of 16 “primetime” or standalone games. He is 6-10 SU, 5-11 ATS in those games.
Overall, Tua has struggled overall in night games. He’s 4-9 ATS in his career and he’s never covered consecutive night games within the same season – which is notable since he covered vs. Rams at night in his last start earlier this season.
Tua vs. Winning Teams in Night Games
➤Tua has faced nine teams at 50% win pct or higher in night games, he is 3-6 SU/ATS, going 1-6 SU in his last 7 games, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in night games vs. teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher.
On the road or a neutral site, Tua has started 13 games vs. teams above .500, he is 2-11 SU and 4-8-1 ATS, losing 8 consecutive games outright.
Tua’s Travel Time Zone Troubles
➤In November, Tua won and covered on the road in L.A. vs. the Rams. He’s never covered in two straight games outside of EST in his career.
Tua by time zone: 29-16-1 ATS in EST | 4-7 ATS all other time zones
NFL’s Second Black Friday Game
➤This is the 2nd-ever Black Friday game in the NFL. Last year, the Jets played at home vs. Dolphins and lost 34-13 as 9.5-pt underdogs. The Jets ended up losing all four quarters vs. Miami and got dominated.
Chiefs Struggle to Cover as Big Favorites
➤As a favorite of 6 pts or more, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU and 0-5-1 ATS this season. As a favorite of above a full TD (7.5 or more), they are 4-0 SU and 0-4 ATS.
Forget the fact KC is undefeated SU and defeated ATS, since 1990, only one team has played at least six games as a 6+ point favorite in their first 11 games and had no covers ATS, the 1997 Packers, who were coming off a Super Bowl win in 1996, made it back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and lost to the Broncos.
Mahomes’ Historical ATS Struggles as a Big Favorite
➤Mahomes has historically struggled as a big favorite.
-7 or greater: 22-31-3 ATS (7-14-2 ATS last 3 seasons, 15-26-3 ATS since 2020)
123rd ranked ATS of 124 QBs last 20 years
-7.5 or greater: 19-27-2 ATS (6-12-1 ATS last 3 seasons, 13-22-1 ATS since 2020)
113th ranked ATS of 114 QBs last 20 years
As a favorite of over 10 pts, he is 9-14 ATS, 9-10 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS on the road.
Mahomes’ Biggest Upsets as a Big Favorite
➤Here are Mahomes’ biggest upsets in his career when he’s been a big favorite.
-11 vs. Raiders, 2023 (L, 20-14)
-11 vs. Raiders, 2020 (L, 40-32)
-10.5 vs. Colts, 2019 (L, 19-13)
Mahomes is 25-3 SU, 11-15-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career with two of his three losses coming vs. Raiders. Mahomes is 13-0 SU as above an 11-pt favorite in his career.
Raiders Can’t Stay Close
➤The Raiders are having a tough time staying close in games this year. They have fallen behind by double-digits in each of the first 11 games of the season. They are just the 3rd team ever to do that and first since the 1986 Colts (‘72 Patriots).
Raiders’ Turnover Woes
➤Raiders have a turnover differential of -17 through eleven games, the worst for any team since 2018 and the worst for the Raiders in franchise history.
Raiders' Losing Streak History
➤Raiders have lost 7 consecutive SU entering this game against the Chiefs. Only the 5th 7+ game losing streak in Raiders history:
1962: 13 straight
2014: 10
2006: 9
1987: 7
This will be just the 3rd time Mahomes will face a team on a 5+ game losing streak, he’s scored 30+ in both of those games.
Teams on a 7+ game SU losing streak are 130-96-7 ATS (58%) last 30 years.
Antonio Pierce’s ATS Performance
➤Antonio Pierce is 11-8-1 ATS as coach of the Raiders, only the 2nd of 12 Raiders head coaches above .500 ATS with the team, joining Hue Jackson, who was 9-6-1 ATS.
With Gardner Minshew at QB, Pierce is 3-6 ATS, failing to cover by 4.5 PPG.
With Aidan O’Connell at QB, Pierce is 8-2-1 ATS, covering by 7.5 PPG.
Mahomes' Back-to-Back Double-Digit Favorite Record
➤Mahomes has played back-to-back games as a double-digit favorite seven times in his career prior to this week. He is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 2nd leg of that series of games. Both of his losses have come against the Raiders.
Raiders’ Christmas Day Revenge
➤The Chiefs last played at home vs. Raiders on Christmas day of last year – also a weekday, early in the day game. It was played on Monday at 1p ET. Raiders beat the Chiefs, 20-14 as 11.5-pt underdogs. The Raiders led 20-7 entering the 4th quarter in that game.
Chiefs Seek to End Raiders ATS Streak
➤Chiefs have lost two straight ATS vs. Raiders entering this matchup. They haven’t lost three straight ATS since 2011-12.
Mahomes on Short Rest
➤Mahomes will make his 18th start on short rest this week against the Raiders. He’s 10-7 ATS in that spot, winning 7 in a row and going 6-1 ATS in those games.
Chiefs Defense’s Second Half Dominance
➤The Chiefs defense try to end games quickly in the second half. Since the start of last season, the second half under is 24-8 in Chiefs games, going under the 2H total by 5 PPG.
Last year, the Chiefs were 18-1 to the 4th quarter under, but they are 7-4 to the 4Q over this season.
Double-Digit Favorites in Low Total Divisional Matchups
➤Last week, the Commanders closed as 10.5 pt favorites against Dallas with the total sitting at 44.5. This week, the Chiefs are also a double-digit favorite vs. a divisional opponent with a low total.
Double-digit favorites vs. a divisional opponent with a total of 45 or less are 72-95-4 ATS (43%) since 2003.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Last 20 years, teams who lead at the half on Thanksgiving are 31-20-1 (61%) against the second half spread. When those teams are listed as favorites on the 2H spread after leading, they are 24-12-1 2H ATS.
Matches: Check lines at halftime.
System: This system tells you to fade good teams on bad ATS losing streaks, which is the definition of what the Chiefs are on right now.
Matches: LV
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System: Teams off a loss entering Thanksgiving are 16-22 ATS since 2003 and 25-39 ATS since 1990. When that team is off a loss of 7 or more entering Thanksgiving, they are 8-15 ATS.
Matches: CHI and NYG
System: This system looks to bet divisional unders later in the season, especially when the total is higher.
Matches: DET/CHI
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