Happy Thanksgiving, dear readers! Thanksgiving means family, food, football … and potential fiscal gains.
There's plenty to be thankful for this football season. I'm thankful for family and friends, a warm home, and a big-screen TV to watch and bet games every weekend.
I'm also thankful that we hit the DJ Moore escalator and dominated the primetime games to save our weekend — down just 0.5 units on 17.65 invested despite a 7-17 record. It's a good reminder that our goal isn't to win bets — anyone can do that, with the right juice — our goal is to have some fun and win money.
NFL Thanksgiving Predictions
It's all about ROI baby, and at 15% on the season as we hit the holiday stretch, that's more than enough reason to be thankful and settle in for a Thanksgiving feast.
So buckle up — or maybe loosen that belt — and let's grab a side on all three Thanksgiving games (Bears vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys, Dolphins vs. Packers), plus a trio of props and a few alt lines and escalators, too.
Let's eat.
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Bears vs. Lions Spread Pick
The first game of the day is also my favorite side of the entire week.
I already recommended Lions -10 on the Lookahead, and we've seen this line creep as high as -11 already — and it should be at least -13, in my opinion.
Chicago has the worst road offense in the league by DVOA. Caleb Williams is coming off maybe the best game of his career but faces a tough assignment against the No. 1 pass defense.
The other side of the ball is an even bigger problem. Chicago's run defense has cratered to 30th by DVOA — that's bad news against an elite Lions rushing attack that should be able to control the clock all game.
I'm more of a trends bettor than usual on Thanksgiving, and this is a Turkey Day trend smash:
- Detroit has covered eight of its last 12 games on Thanksgiving, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite
- Non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 30-10 ATS (75%) since 2007 by almost a full TD per game
- Thanksgiving favorites of 7+ points are 19-7 ATS (73%) by almost a TD per game
- Public non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 23-5 ATS (82%)
On Thanksgiving, we side with the public and bet on the favorites, and there's no bigger favorite — or more public side — this Turkey Day than the Lions. Detroit is getting almost three-fourths of the spread bets as of publish, and Thanksgiving favorites getting at least 74% of the bets are 7-0 ATS since 2007.
Everyone and their estranged uncle will want action on this hot Lions team — and for once, they're all right.
This is a bad spot for the Bears on a short week after a divisional game with a margin of three or less, with such teams just 43% ATS. And Chicago played overtime too, another bad spot.
Jared Goff remains nigh invincible playing indoors as a member of the Lions, now 32-10 ATS (76%). He's covered 13-of-15 games in that spot since last Thanksgiving.
The Lions are 9-2 ATS against the first-half spread, second best in the league while the Bears are third worst.
Expect Detroit to do what it's been doing all season — get out ahead and roll.
Pick: Lions -10
Jameson Williams Player Props
The Bears rank top 10 in pass defense DVOA, but much of that is Jaylon Johnson. Chicago is bottom five against WR2s this season and vulnerable to the deep ball, top five in single-high safety coverage.
In just the last two weeks, Jordan Addison (8 catches for 162 yards) and Christian Watson (4/150) had monster WR2 games, with each catching a pass for 60+ yards.
That bodes well for Jameson Williams, a similar type of speedy deep threat. Amon-Ra St. Brown had under 100 yards in two games combined against the Bears last year with Johnson covering him, but Williams had a 32-yard TD against Chicago and has now stepped up as Detroit's clear WR2.
Williams looks unpredictable by the numbers — two games with over 120 yards, two others with under 10 — but the home/road splits tell a different story.
In five road games, Williams averages just 2.6 catches for 34 yards on four targets. On his home fast track, that spikes to 4.0 catches for 101 yards on seven targets, with at least one 50+ yard catch in all four home games and seven of his eight longest receptions at home.
Williams isn't a guy to play traditional lines on. If Williams has a good game, he usually has a great game, so I won't bother with over 46.5 receiving yards or over 23.5 longest reception. Skip the median outcomes and play more aggressively.
I'll play 70+ receiving yards at +235 (DraftKings) — Williams has 79+ yards in all four home games — and nibble 100+ yards at +750. Let's also sprinkle 50+ longest reception at +950 (bet365) and hope we get one of those long balls.
If you want a day-long bet, I also like Williams at +1200 to record the most receiving yards on Thanksgiving (BetMGM).
If you want to get really spicy, try Williams with Jared Goff and Josh Jacobs to lead Thanksgiving in receiving, passing, and rushing yards at +7000 (FanDuel).
Picks:
- Williams 70+ Yards (+235)
- Williams 100+ Yards (+750)
- Williams' Longest Reception 50+ Yards (+950)
- Williams Most Receiving Yards on Thanksgiving (+1200)
DJ Moore Player Props
As I mentioned in the intro, I cashed the D.J. Moore receptions escalator last week, hitting the traditional receptions over 4.5 with a late push to get to 7+ catches (+350) in overtime — so let's run it back!
It's a similar case as last week, and it's all about the way Moore is being used in Thomas Brown's offense.
Over the first 10 weeks of the season, with Shane Waldron calling plays, Moore had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.3 and averaged under 20 yards after the catch per game.
In his first game with Brown, that flipped to a 0.9 aDOT with 56 YAC. Last week's ADOT was a little higher at 3.6 thanks to a deep pass to end regulation, but the continued short passes also saw Moore get to 81 YAC.
In Waldron's offense, Moore caught 61% of his targets. Under Brown, he's caught 14-of-14 targets. It's not necessarily that Moore is getting extra targets — his targets are just shorter, easier receptions that are designed to get the ball into his hands and let him cook.
The Lions have had an elite pass defense, but they're ahead so much that they also allow the most receptions to receivers in the NFL. They also play the highest rate of man coverage in football, which lends itself to Moore's YAC abilities.
This isn't quite as ideal of a matchup as the Vikings one since the Lions tend to fare worse against true downfield-threat WR1s, but this is still a good spot for Moore.
Books haven't adjusted for Moore's new role yet, giving us a receptions line at 4.5 (-114, FanDuel) matching last week, even though he's had seven catches in both games with Brown as OC.
I'm less bullish on the escalator this week, but I still love the traditional over 4.5.
Place some of your bet on 7+ catches at +310 (bet365), which is still a bad number, and you can sprinkle 9+ receptions at +1100 if you like.
Picks:
- Moore Over 4.5 Receptions (-114)
- Moore 7+ Receptions (+310)
- Moore 9+ Receptions (+1100)
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Giants vs. Cowboys Spread, Moneyline Predictions
This game stinks, but it's the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, so we may as well bet what we'll be watching anyway.
It's gonna be ugly.
The total is 37.5 and dropping, and we're getting some unknown combination of Cooper Rush, Trey Lance, Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock at quarterback. Both teams are at the bottom by DVOA on both offense and defense. The only thing good about either team might actually be Brandon Aubrey and Dallas' special teams.
Actually, that may not be true. The Giants have quietly become a borderline top-five rushing offense by DVOA over the last six weeks, and Dallas has been terrible against the run. Tyrone Tracy Jr. could have a big game, perhaps both running and catching.
I looked at Tracy props but don't need them, and I felt the same way about CeeDee Lamb receiving overs with the Giants bottom three against WR1s and deep passes.
I'd love to bet on a couple Micah Parsons sacks if DeVito gets the start since he's been sacked almost once every six drop backs for his career. You can bet on both Parsons and ZaDarius Smith to get a sack at +350 (FanDuel), a fun one since Caleb Williams leads the league in sacks himself.
When in doubt, the safest bet is just fading the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Dallas has failed to cover 11 of its last 13 Thanksgiving games, with an ATS margin of -9.2 PPG over that stretch. The Cowboys have also allowed at least 25 points in five straight games this season — teams like that are 18-33 ATS (35%) since 2018.
These teams also have reverse home/road splits, with the Cowboys horrendous at home and the Giants defense much better on the road.
Are we sure the Cowboys are better than the Giants? I'm not, and the Thanksgiving trends speak for themselves.
Dallas is still America's team, at least at sportsbooks. Let everyone else bet on the Cowboys and take Giants +4 instead — and play that +180 moneyline, which is badly mispriced for so short a 'dog.
Picks: Giants +4, Giants Moneyline (+180)
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Dolphins vs. Packers Spread Pick
This might be the only good game on Thanksgiving. Public consensus seems to be that these are both sneaky offensive teams on their way up, but I don't see these teams as equals.
Miami's offense dropped 34 on the Raiders and Patriots, but who cares?
The Dolphins are still effectively a league-average offense with Tua Tagovailoa on the season, outside the top 10 in passing with a poor running game.
Green Bay's offense, not Miami's, is the elite one. The Packers rank top four by DVOA both rushing and passing and third overall, far ahead of the Dolphins.
The schedule makers were not kind to Miami. It looks like a wintery game, with temperatures in the 20s or below and double-digit winds to boot.
Tagovailoa is winless in his career in games under 40 degrees (0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS). Miami scored just three and seven points in two of those games.
If you just want to fade a cold Florida team, the Dolphins' team total under 13.5 is +350 at bet365; they're +625 at Caesars to be the lowest scoring team on Thanksgiving.
In cold-weather games, you need to run the football. Miami still can't do that, and Green Bay can.
Josh Jacobs has been terrific and the Packers have won a handful of games just dominating on the ground. Miami's run defense ranks bottom 10, and that's a big problem in this matchup.
Green Bay ranks top three on early downs while Miami's defense is bottom five on first down. The Packers can chew up the clock and run, run, run all night.
This is a great Thanksgiving trends spot for Green Bay as well.
Non-Dallas Thanksgiving favorites are 30-10 ATS (75%) by almost a touchdown a game since 2007, and Thanksgiving night favorites are 13-4 ATS all time (77%).
Green Bay could end up the public side, too, another good Turkey Day harbinger. Mike McDaniel is 5-9 ATS (36%) against teams over .500.
If you want a total, I typically play Thanksgiving night unders. They're 11-6 all time, including seven of the last nine by 7.7 PPG.
Miami is 9-2 to the first-half under, and wind helps too, but there's just enough offense here that I'll stay away, especially with the total dropping below the key number of 47.
Books are treating these teams as equals on an upswing, but I don't see them as peers on either side of the ball.
Give me Packers -3 before we lose the key number.
Pick: Packers -3
Jonnu Smith Player Props
Last week on The Action Network podcast, we talked about playing tight ends against the Packers.
Green Bay ranks bottom five by DVOA both against tight ends and short passes. The Packers have only faced three top-20 fantasy tight ends this season, but they've still allowed 42+ receiving yards in over half their games, including to no-name guys like Colby Parkinson, Josh Whyle and Brenton Strange. Last week against the Packers, George Kittle had 6/82 and a TD even with Brandon Allen at quarterback.
Jonnu Smith has been balling out. He's caught 15-of-19 targets for 188 yards and three TDs in the last two games. He's suddenly a serious weapon in a Miami offense that's been far less explosive, relying on Smith and De'Von Achane for short passes to move up and down the field.
Smith has had at least 45 receiving yards in six of his last seven games, averaging 5.6 catches for 65 yards over that stretch. This is a spot where books are a bit behind on the line.
Give me over 40.5 receiving yards, and let's nibble 80+ yards at +650 (bet365) as a small escalator. Smith has 87+ yards in three of his last six games.
Picks:
- Smith Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
- Smith 80+ Yards (+650)
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