Turkey, pumpkin pie and football. The NFL is a Thanksgiving tradition. This year’s three-game slate includes two divisional matchups, plus a key showdown between the Bills and Cowboys will playoff implications.
- Chicago Bears (-6) at Detroit Lions (12:30 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys (4:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
- New Orleans Saints (-7) at Atlanta Falcons (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
If you are going to bet on these games, and you are, here are a few strategies to know.
A word to the wise: Most of the sample sizes on these trends are small, so use the research below as a starting point and not the only factor in your decision-making process.
NFL Thanksgiving Betting Trends, Predictions
NFL Thanksgiving Favorites
Favorites on Thanksgiving have gone 30-11 (73.2%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003 per Bet Labs. Teams favored by six or more points have gone 16-3 ATS.
This is a small sample, but it follows a larger trend. On a short week — four days between games — favorites are 100-71-4 (58.5%) ATS since 2003.
The Thanksgiving holiday is the shortest week of preparation of the season for the teams playing day games. With less time to prepare, the more talented and better coached teams (usual the favorites) have an advantage.
Betting the chalk on Thanksgiving not only works for the full game but for first-half and second-half bets as well. Since 2005, first-half favorites have gone 26-13-2 ATS, while second-half favorites are 28-12-1 ATS.
Odds as of Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.
Don’t Fade the Public
One contrarian sports betting strategy is to fade the public. The idea is simple, whichever team casual bettors are loading up on, simply bet the other team.
Unfortunately, this tactic is not profitable during the holiday. Favorites tend to receive the majority of spread tickets and the chalk has crushed on Thanksgiving.
Teams getting little public support on Thanksgiving:
- <50% of spread bets: 14-26 ATS
- <40% of spread bets: 6-16 ATS
- <30% of spread bets: 1-9 ATS
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Divisional Unders
Unders are more profitable in high-total games (more than 44 points) featuring division rivals.
What’s the theory behind this trend? Increased familiarity between teams tends to favor lower-scoring games.
Betting division unders late in the season (Week 11 or later) has returned a profit of $6,193 for a $100 bettor since 2003.
We have two divisional matchups on Thursday, but only Saints-Falcons has an over/under of more than 44 points.
