Even when Tommy DeVito faces Cooper Rush, Thanksgiving is one of the best days on the NFL calendar.
This year, we're treated to the Super Bowl favorite hosting the No. 1 overall pick, two backup quarterbacks (OK, less exciting), and a pair of playoff hopefuls with potentially electric offenses facing off at the NFL's most storied stadium.
We're here to help you get ready for the football feast on Thursday.
NFL Predictions for Thanksgiving
Our experts have you covered on Turkey Day. Billy Ward and John LanFranca combined for picks on the spread and total for all three Thursday games.
On the spread, they're betting two road underdogs, and they're also on the under for those games.
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Bears vs. Lions
Lions -9.5 (-112, DraftKings)
Billy Ward: The 10-1 Detroit Lions have outscored their opponents 360 to 183 this season. That’s good for a net differential of a ridiculous 177 points, or about 16 points per game.
Now, they’re home favorites of just 9.5 against the Chicago Bears, losers of six straight after starting the season hot.
It’s been pretty clear this year that Detroit isn’t playing to protect leads, with three wins of at least 38 points this season. Five of their last seven games have been double-digit wins, with only the 9-2 Vikings and 7-5 Texans making it closer than that.
On top of that, Detroit sounds extra motivated to prove a point, given its poor record on Thanksgiving recently. Jared Goff was quoted this week saying, “I think we have this Thanksgiving thing where we haven't won (on) Thanksgiving in a while, and that's something we want to change."
Detroit has been big on making statements this year, following up each of their closer wins with massive blowouts. This should be another statement from the Lions.
All of which made me very happy to see the spread drop to 9 points on DraftKings for this one. The Lions should roll here, but I love getting this one in the single digits. I’d take -10 for lower juice, but shop for -9 or -9.5 if possible.
Over 47.5 (-110, BetMGM)
John LanFranca: Five of the last seven games involving Detroit have seen the total score go over the posted total, including their last three at home. Scoring 42 or more points in their own building each of those last three home games just shows how comfortable this team is on their home turf, no matter the opponent. I am not going to be scared off by a Bears defense ranking 25th in yards per play allowed and 19th in total defensive DVOA.
The Lions' offensive coaching staff knows that the Bears will be playing predominantly cover-3 on the back-end of their defense, and it shouldn't surprise anybody when this team turns in another explosive offensive performance. Chicago's two other divisional foes, the Packers and Vikings, averaged 15.4 and 9.7 yards per pass attempt, respectively, over the last two weeks when facing this defense. The Bears defense will have to pick their poison, because they also struggle defending the run. Chicago is 28th in the league in yards per carry allowed, giving up 4.8 yards per rush.
Caleb Williams has played much better the previous two games with new offensive coordinator Thomas Brown running the show. His completion percentage is above 70% and his CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) is 4.5%, ranking him 11th-best league-wide over those two games. Brown is designing the offense around getting the ball out of Williams' hands quickly, with the majority of attempts coming within 2.5 seconds of the snap. I expect this positive trend to continue down the stretch of Williams' rookie season.
Both offensive units are in a good position to put up points here. Even if it's the Lions doing most of the heavy-lifting to get this score over the total, it is good to know a potential 40-point outburst by one team is always on the table inside of Ford Field.
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Giants vs. Cowboys
Giants +4 (-110, BetMGM)
LanFranca: A whopping 81% of all wagers thus far are on Cooper Rush and the Cowboys. Nobody is wanting to back the Giants after their embarrassing performance last week, yet the line continues to trend in the direction of New York. This is a situation we run into quite often when betting the NFL, so let's dive into some trends of why holding your nose and backing the Giants is the right move.
If you simply bet every team in the entirety of Action Labs database (since 2003) catching more than 3 points, coming off a loss of more than 21 points, you'd have netted a positive 10.1% ROI on more than 400 games. If that matchup happens to take place against a divisional opponent, the underdog is 91-68 (57.1%) against the spread. More recently, given this exact situation over the last five years within the division, the underdog is 26-14 against the number, covering at a 65% rate.
The key to the Giants having a good performance revolves around their ability to get pressure on the opposing quarterback. New York still boasts the No. 1 adjusted sack rate in the NFL. Cooper Rush turned in a good performance last week in Washington, but he was pressured on just 11% of his dropbacks. When Rush is faced with pressure, his yards per attempt drops to an abysmal 4.2 yards per attempt.
I am expecting a low-scoring slog of a game, similar to the one Dallas and Washington played through 3.5 quarters this past Sunday. Points will be at a premium. If the Giants end up inserting Drew Lock for a significant chunk of this game, I like their chances of pulling the upset. If it's Tommy DeVito for all four quarters, I still like having 3.5 points in my back pocket.
Under 37.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Ward: Before both teams lost (either through injury or by choice) their starting quarterbacks, this game had a total of around 45. Now it’s down all the way to 37.5, as we have Cooper Rush of the Cowboys taking on Tommy DeVito of the Giants.
We’ve got a small sample size on both players this year, with this being the third start for Rush and second for DeVito. Rush has led the Cowboys to 44 points in his two starts, but 34 of those came against the Commanders.
For all the Giants' faults, they’re a better overall defense than Washington by DVOA. They also have the best pass rush by Adjusted Sack Rate in the league. That’s a problem for Rush, who took five sacks against the Texans in his first start.
DeVito was bad last week, taking four sacks and throwing for under 200 yards as the Giants lost 30-7 to the Bucs. Dallas has Micah Parsons back on defense and should give DeVito similar problems here.
The best path for each team to score is probably the ground game, which is led by relatively unexplosive backs Rico Dowdle and Tyrone Tracy. Plus, both teams will likely be without at least one offensive line starter.
Thus, I’m taking the Under 37.5 at -118 on FanDuel. With 37 as a somewhat key number, try to get the extra half point there – but I’d still take the 37s available elsewhere.
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Dolphins vs. Packers
Dolphins +3.5 (-112, DraftKings)
LanFranca: The narrative surrounding this game will revolve around Tua Tagovailoa playing in cold weather, but we shouldn't overlook Jordan Love being just 2-2 in games below 40 degrees. Speaking of Love, there is cause for concern, especially with the potential absence of his go-to third-down weapon in Romeo Doubs.
Love is now ranked 32nd in the league in completion percentage at 61.8%, ahead of just Trevor Lawrence, Bryce Young, and Anthony Richardson of all qualifying passers. Matt LaFleur seems to have settled on this offense being run based, especially on early downs.
Witnessing this post-bye offensive attack draws comparison to the current Kansas City offense, which puts an immense of amount of pressure on the quarterback to move the chains on third down. The problem is, Love is not Patrick Mahomes. In fact, Love's turnover-worthy throw rate is above 4% — and if you watch every one of his attempts, you'd be hard-pressed to not think that number is even higher. Love has missed two games, and parts of others, yet still has thrown 11 interceptions on the season.
Playing this style of offense is great when you are trying to protect your quarterback from making mistakes, or you are just trying to limit the impact he has on the outcome of a game. It is very difficult to win with margin playing this way, and if your quarterback is mistake-prone, you are going to lose some closely contested games.
Love's passer rating on third down this season is 29th league-wide and he will be taking on a Dolphins pass defense ranked as the fourth-best in yards per attempt allowed. Miami is also defending the run much better since its Week 5 bye, allowing just 3.8 yards per rush. The Dolphins defense is going to have opportunities to get takeaways.
I love the idea of getting points with the quarterback playing better football right now. I expect the Dolphins to pull off the upset on Thanksgiving night, so I'll back them at +3.5.
Under 47.5 (-110, bet365)
Ward: The Packers have been playing their typical ball-control football this season. They rank 30th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 29th in pace of play, with occasional deep shots mixed in when opposing defenses get complacent.
They've also found a run game, with Josh Jacobs third in the NFL in rushing yards. The bulk of their success should come on the ground, with Miami ranking 26th in DVOA against the run.
On the Miami side of the ball, they’ve transitioned from the explosive offense of years past to a checkdown passing attack. Since his return from a concussion, Tua Tagovailoa has targeted running backs and tight ends on roughly 50% of his passes.
His 5.2 average depth of target (aDOT) is the lowest in the NFL among players with more than one pass attempt in that span.
That means the key to the offense is turning those extended drives into touchdowns instead of field goals. They've been able to do that during their current winning streak, averaging more than 30 points per game.
However, those games all came against bottom-10 defenses by DVOA. Two were at home in Miami, and one was in Los Angeles. This game is at Lambeau, where temperatures are expected to be below freezing, with wind chill around 20 degrees.
Tagovailoa has famously struggled in cold weather, plus the Packers defense is a big step up in competition. Add in the relatively slow pace and methodical nature of both teams, and that's enough for me to take the under.
The best line is 47.5 (-120) at FanDuel. I prefer spending the extra juice for the half point here, since 47 is a relatively important number. I'd play the 47 lines at -110 if necessary, though.
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