Happy Thanksgiving, NFL bettors!
If you’re running out of angles on your Holiday NFL card, check out PrizePicks, an app that allows you to parlay together different props and wager real money in 30 states, including states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are my two favorite PrizePicks plays for the Thanksgiving slate, one from the Buffalo vs. Detroit and another from the New York vs. Dallas.
Jamaal Williams
Over/Under 14 Rush Attempts
Surprisingly, D’Andre Swift has not been a big part of the game plan in Detroit. Maybe it’s because he's constantly hurt and hasn’t been fully reintegrated, or maybe it’s because the offense has been cooking with Jamaal Williams as the lead back.
Either way, Williams has been getting fed the lion’s share of touches.
Williams has gone over 14 rush attempts in seven of his last eight games. Against Green Bay and Minnesota, he had over 20 attempts.
I don’t see the game plan changing on Thanksgiving. Especially on a short week, expect head coach Dan Campbell to establish the run early and often with his power back.
Chris Raybon projects Williams for 15.5 carries on Thanksgiving, per the Action Network Player Props tool, giving us a sharp enough edge to take this PrizePicks line.
Pick: Over 14 Rush Attempts
Saquon Barkley
Over/Under 76.5 Rush Yards
It looks like we’re calling for a rush-heavy Thanksgiving. This is likely not bad, given most primetime games have stayed under the listed total this season.
However, how can we not back Saquon Barkley? He shines in these spots.
The Giants are still run-first as they rank 30th in pass rate over expectation. Barkley gets almost every carry, boasting a 62.8% rush attempt marketshare while the No. 2 back (Matt Breida) has a 9% mark.
As a result, Barkley is averaging 98 rush yards per game and sitting second in the NFL in total rushing yards. Although he saw little action last week, Barkley crushed this number in six of the prior eight games.
Dallas has a devastating defense, but is slightly vulnerable against the run. The Cowboys are currently second in pass defense DVOA vs. 10th in rush defense DVOA.
Opposing offenses seem to know this. While good from an efficiency standpoint, the Cowboys have allowed the seventh-most rush attempts and the sixth-most rushing yards per game. Instead of targeting the Cowboys' secondary, opponents have targeted the front seven.
The Action Labs Player Props tool projects Barkley to go over his rush attempt total and, consequently, his rushing yards total, marking him for 83 on Thanksgiving.
Pick: Over 76.5 Rush Yards
