The NFL regular season kicks off an annual marathon of betting, and with the emergence of player props, there’s no market that has exploded more in popularity than Anytime Touchdown Scorers.
As the Anytime Touchdown Specialist here at The Action Network, I’ll be betting TD props for every primetime game of the 2022 NFL season and sharing my analysis on how I’m approaching each pick.
For the non-primetime NFL games on Sundays at 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET, make sure to watch “The Touchdown Show,” which is co-hosted with Dr. Nick Giffen and airs every Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET on The Action Network YouTube channel. This will have my top TD picks of the week.
Most importantly, download the Action Network App to get all my touchdown picks in one place and as soon as I bet them at my sportsbook. If I’m betting on touchdown props, this is the place to find them so get it ASAP.
T.J. Hockenson
ATD (+200, FanDuel)
Hockenson is the clear top target in the Lions’ offense. When he played the Eagles in 2021, he caught 10 of 11 targets. Philly may have improved its defense, but going off last season, it was awful defending tight ends, giving up 14 TD to the position (last in the NFL). For what it’s worth, Hockenson has also scored in three consecutive Week 1 games. His odds ranged from +175 to +220 all of last season.
Adam Thielen
ATD (+185, FanDuel)
Ever since Kirk Cousins became quarterback of the Vikings (2018), his connection with Thielen has been undeniable. Through Weeks 1-4 of the last four seasons (16 games), Thielen has racked up 12 TDs. Last season, his TD odds ranged from +110 to +140 at best, so we’re getting decent value here.
The Packers allowed 19 TDs to WRs last season. In the same span with Cousins, Thielen has faced Green Bay six times since 2018 and has 5 TDs. Thielen had 10 TDs in 2021, seven in the red zone and six inside the 10-yard line. He’s a clear RZ target for Kirk.
Josh Palmer
ATD (+340, FanDuel)
Palmer caught four touchdowns as a rookie, but he really came alive in the final leg of the season. Three of those TDs came in his final five games and he was also second in targets in that span. This past preseason, Palmer showed good explosiveness and he has clearly lapped Jalen Guyton as the Chargers’ WR3.
From Weeks 12-17, his TD odds ranged from +250 to +300. There might be some Canadian bias here, but I don’t care. Palmer has emerged as a legit scoring option for the Chargers.
Trevor Lawrence
ATD (+450, FanDuel)
Lawrence only scored twice last season, but you can’t forget this offense under Urban Meyer was a trainwreck from the jump. Now, the Jags have a revamped offensive line. Lawrence had 12 RZ carries last year, which was seventh among all QBs. I project that to increase this season as he has the ability. He faces a Washington team that gave up 5 rushing TDs to QBs last season and the most rushing yards.
When Lawrence scored last year, his odds dropped to +300 and then +260 in the subsequent games. His over/under on rushing yards is setting at 16.5 – he cleared that in 10 of 17 games.
Tommy Tremble
ATD (+750, FanDuel)
Tremble enters his sophomore season with no real competition other than Ian Thomas, who has 4 TDs in 65 career games (one in his last 33 games). He averaged 43 snaps per game as a rookie and scored once when he had insane odds of +1200.
Having Baker Mayfield throwing him passes helps, as 10 of Mayfield’s 17 passing TDs in 2021 were to tight ends – and 36% of his career passing TDs have gone to TEs as well. Mayfield’s old team, the Browns, have ranked in the bottom five in TDs allowed to TEs in each of the last 3 seasons.
I dare you to find another TE1 for TD props with value that high. I’ll save you the search. It doesn’t exist.
