Welcome back, football! The Action Network primer is here for another NFL season, and it's time to get into the action with 16 Week 1 games.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 1 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Sept. 10, at 1 p.m. ET.
A Big Leap
Rodgers, Jets Become Contenders
The Jets started last season with 150-1 odds to win the Super Bowl with Zach Wilson at quarterback. This season, they have 18-1 odds to win it all. This would be the fourth-biggest move for a team year-to-year inside 20-1 to win it all.
Biggest Super Bowl Odds Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Since Merger
- 1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200)
- 1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700)
- 1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200)
- 2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200)
The Jets are currently home underdogs against the Bills in Week 1.
In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field, but only eight of those came as a home underdog (7%). Rodgers is 6-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as a home dog in his career.
Tight As Ever
2023 Division Odds Race
Are these the tightest division races in years? Currently, no division betting favorite is -200 or higher ā the first time that is the case since 2004 and the second time since 2000.
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Angry Birds
What to Expect in Arizona
The Cardinals' win total is currently 4.5; the Buccaneers have the next lowest win total at six. This is the first time in the Wild Card era (since 1990) that the team with the lowest win total was 1.5 wins or lower than the next closest team.
How have teams with this low of a win total performed? Since 1990, the Cardinals are the 26th team to finish with a win total below five. Those teams are 14-9-2 to the over.
In Week 1, Cardinals as 7-pt underdogs are receiving only 18% of the tickets at the Commanders. They would be just the second team in the last six seasons to close with under 20% of tickets in Week 1 (Jets in 2022).
Black & Blue Division
AFC North Makes History
Between the Bengals, Ravens, Browns and Steelers, the AFC North win totals add up to 40, which would make it the best "on-paper" division entering a season from a win-total perspective since division realignment in 2002.
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Every NFL Game For Week 1
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Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Jared Goff, DET | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 56-48-1 | ATS: 57-46-2 | ||
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 75-19 | ATS: 49-43-2 | ||
Lions
Detroit's Man. Who's the most profitable quarterback against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 over the last 20 years?
The answer: Jared Goff, who is 6-0 ATS (4-0 SU ā straight-up ā and ATS with the Rams and 0-2 SU, 2-0 ATS with the Lions). Goff has been the most profitable QB ATS over the last five years (48-32-2 ATS, +$1,341).
It All Matters. With the Lions opening up the season outdoors at Arrowhead Stadium, this is how Goff has performed ATS indoors and outdoors.
- Indoor: 26-13 ATS (16-5 the last two seasons with Detroit).
- Outdoor: 31-33-2 ATS.
- Lions schedule from Weeks 1-7: three dome, four outdoors. Then, from Week 8 onward: nine dome, one outdoors.
A New Detroit. The Lions' win total is 9.5. They're the only NFL team without a double-digit win total in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Their win total of 9.5 is the team's highest in the Wild Card era.
- 20-1 to win the Super Bowl this year is the shortest SB odds for Detroit since 1996 (15-1).
- +140 to win the NFC North is the shortest division odds for Detroit over the last 20 years.
- The Lions are favored to win NFC North for first time since the current iteration of the division in 2002. The last time Detroit had the best odds for the division it played in was 1992.
Against Mahomes. Teams getting +3.5 points or more against Patrick Mahomes are 37-30-1 ATS, including 10-4 ATS last season and 28-15 ATS over the last three seasons.
Clean Sheet. If you bet on Goff to throw an interception in every game last season, you would be down 7.3 units (most of any QB). Second worst was Kenny Pickett at -6.3 units. (Interception data via Gilles Gallant.)
Early Overs. Week 1 Lions games have gone over the total 12 straight years (2011-22). They're 15-1 to the over since 2007.
Perfection. Lions went 6-0 ATS vs. the NFC North last season.
The Swift is Gone. Lions with DāAndre Swift last season: 9-5 SU, 12-2 ATS (0-3 ATS without him). He's now on the Eagles.
Chiefs
Never Dogs. The Chiefs are projected to be favored in every game this season. Their smallest projected spreads are in Week 4 at the Jets (-2) and Week 18 at the Chargers (-2).
"Do You Remember?" Mahomes is 13-3 SU and 9-7 ATS in September ā 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in openers (over is 5-0 in Mahomes Week 1 openers, going over by 10.9 PPG).
Record Breaker. Mahomes is 64-16 SU in the regular season (80 starts). Through 80 starts ā¦
- Most QB Wins: Mahomes 64; Brady, Lamonica, Stabler, Staubach 60
- TD Passes: Mahomes 192, Marino 181, Rodgers 177
By The Numbers. Mahomes starts by point spread ā¦
- Favorite: 84 (41-42-1 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
- -10 or higher: 23 (9-13-1 ATS) | -9.5 or fewer/or dog: 71 (40-30-1 ATS)
- -3.5 or higher: 68 (30-37-1 ATS) | -3 or fewer/or dog: 26 (19-6-1 ATS)
A Good Spot. Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory over the Eagles ā¦
- Week 1 Thursday night opener: Home teams are 12-7-3 ATS since 2000.
- Beginning in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champions have kicked off the NFL regular season by hosting 18 weekday primetime games. In those games, they're 10-6-2 ATS.
- The Super Bowl champs are 14-8-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.
Hard to Beat K.C. The Chiefs have won eight straight games dating back to last season, including seven straight home games.
- As Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is 7-3 ATS and 9-1 SU in season openers (won eight straight SU). The last loss? Back in 2014 at home vs. Titans and QB Jake Locker.
- Reid is 44-22 SU in September since 2003, including 16-3 SU since 2017-18. His 44-22 record has profited a $100 moneyline bettor $1,022, which is the most of any coach in the Bet Labs database.
Win Total. Chiefs are 9-1 to their win total over in the last 10 years. Reid win total results with the Chiefs and Eagles: 9-1 over with K.C. and 9-4-1 over with Philly (18-5-1 overall to over).
K.C. Special. Chiefs have won the AFC West seven consecutive years ā it's longest active division streak across the four major sports. The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots, with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
| Bryce Young, CAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Desmond Ridder, ATL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 2-2 | ATS: 2-2 | ||
Panthers
He's No. 1. Bryce Young will be the 18th first overall pick to start at QB in Week 1 of his draft year (since the merger). The previous 17 QBs went 3-13-1 SU and 5-12 ATS in that Week 1 game.
- Overall, No. 1 picks who start at QB are 4-21-1 SU and 7-19 ATS in their first career start.
- The last No. 1 pick to win his first start? David Carr in 2002. They're 0-13-1 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2003.
Hard To Overcome. Since 2011-12 ā the years Cam Newton and Andrew Luck were taken No. 1 overall ā 17 QBs have been taken in the top five of the draft.
- Not counting Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, the previous 14 QBs are 22 games under .500 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $4,496.
- Ten of the 14 QBs are .500 ATS or below in their career. The four QBs above .500 ATS are Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa.
Stature. Young measured at 5-foot-10, 204 pounds at the 2023 NFL Combine. Murray, who is recovering from a torn ACL, is the only QB under six feet tall drafted in the first round in the common draft era.
Below 6-feet Tall, Starting QB Rookie Year
- 2020 PJ Walker 1-0 SU
- 2019 Kyler Murray 5-11 SU
- 2012 Russell Wilson 11-5 SU
- 1986 Doug Flutie 1-0 SU
- 1976 Pat Haden 5-2 SU
Early Trouble. Frank Reich is 0-4-1 SU and ATS in Week 1 games as head coach (all with the Colts).
Road Trip! Between Weeks 12-14, the Panthers go on a three-game road trip. Teams on the third or more game of a road trip are 50-54-2 ATS in the last 20 years. In September-November, they're 23-20 ATS, and in December-January, they're 27-34-2 ATS.
Can It Continue? The Panthers went 8-3 ATS after trading Christian McCaffrey last season (third-best ATS record in NFL in that span).
Rollercoaster. The Panthers went over their win total last year (6.5 or seven). They havenāt eclipsed their win total in consecutive years since 2002-03.
Since 2002, there have been 31 instances of teams drafting a quarterback in the top 10 that then went on to start at least eight games as a rookie. Those teams combined to go 11-18-2 (37.9%) toward their win-total over. Over the last 10 years, theyāve been even worse, going just 4-11-2 (26.7%).
Highest Team Over/Under for a QB Drafted First Overall in WC Era (since 1990)
- 1992 Giants/Dave Brown ā 9 (Supplemental Draft)
- 2023 Panthers/Bryce Young ā 7.5
- 2016 Rams/Jared Goff ā 7.5
Falcons
Starting Slow. The Falcons havenāt won a Week 1 game since 2017 (five straight SU losses), and they've lost four straight Week 1 games at home SU.
- Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Week 1 games, but they covered ā and lost SU ā last year.
Schedule & Win Total. Atlanta went over its win total in 2022, breaking a four-year under streak. The Falcons are 7-3 to under in the last 10 years.
- The Falcons have zero games this season with positive rest differential compared to their opponent. They also play on the road before their game in London (Week 4).
- Seven of the Falcons' last 11 games are on the road. Atlanta went 1-7 SU on the road last season, which was its worst year since 2013.
Two Face. Arthur Smith is 5-11 ATS at home as a head coach compared to 10-7-1 ATS on the road or neutral field.
- Smith is the Falcons' worst head coach ATS at home over the last 20 years.
- Since being hired in 2021, Smith is the least profitable coach at home ATS in the NFL.
Bijan Value? In 53 seasons since the merger, six rookies have led the NFL in rushing: Earl Campbell (1978), George Rogers (1981), Eric Dickerson (1983), Edgerrin James (1999), Ezekiel Elliott (2016) and Kareem Hunt (2017). Bijan Robinson is about +1100 to lead the league in rushing this season.
The Ridder Difference. In a small sample size, Desmond Ridder has been a better QB at home.
- Home: 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) | 25 points per game | TD-INT (2-0) | 7.0 yards per attempt
- Road: 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) | 13.5 points per game | TD-INT (0-0) | 5.3 yards per attempt
| CJ Stroud, HOU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
| Lamar Jackson, BAL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 46-19 | ATS: 33-32 | ||
Texans
Double-Digit. We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The closest right now is the Ravens vs. Texans. The four-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.
If it does get there, double-digit favorites in Week 1 are 25-5 SU in the Wild Card era, with the biggest upset going to the Texans against the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs in 2003.
Lack of Size. If this closes as the only game with a spread of seven or more points, that would be the fewest games in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more since 2010, when we had no such games.
All Rookies. Since 2002, rookie head coaches are 56-39-2 (58%) ATS in their first road game (stat via Chris Raybon).
Schedule Note. The Texans donāt play in primetime this season, with 16-of-17 games starting at 1 p.m. ET.
Not Again. Houston has won four games or fewer in three straight seasons (2020-22). The last team to do it four straight seasons was the Bears from 1972-75.
Uphill Climb. Nineteen Ohio State QBs have been taken in the NFL or Supplemental Draft. One has been selected to the Pro Bowl thus far: Tom Tupa in 1999 for the Jets, who didn't draft him.
- Justin Fields will be the only drafted OSU QB to be the primary starter for two or more seasons.
- All drafted OSU QBs are a combined 42-88 SU, with Craig Krenzel (3-2) being the only one over .500 SU.
- OSU first-round QBs (Fields, Dwayne Haskins and Art Schlichter) are 8-36 SU.
Ravens
High & Early. The Ravens are currently the biggest favorite in Week 1. It's Baltimore's third opener as a double-digit favorite ā 2009 as a 13-point favorite vs. Chiefs and 2001 as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Bears (both wins and covers).
King of Prep. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 11-4 ATS in Week 1, making him the most profitable Week 1 coach in the Bet Labs database.
John Harbaugh With Extra Time To Prepare
- 10+ days: 24-8 SU, 18-12-2 ATS
- Week 1: 11-4 SU/ATS
New Man in Town. Todd Monken is Baltimore's new offensive coordinator. This is his fifth OC-type stint in NFL, and his teams' ATS results havenāt been great.
- 2019 CLE: 5-10-1 ATS
- 2018 TB: 5-9-2 ATS
- 2017 TB: 6-9-1 ATS
- 2016 TB: 9-7 ATS
- Total: 25-35-4 ATS
Powerhouse. Ravens are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl. They're 20-1 or shorter in that market for the fourth straight season, which is their longest streak since they moved to Baltimore in 1996.
First Half Charm? Lamar Jackson used to be the king of first-half (1H) ATS. Not so much recently.
- 2021-23: 10-13-1 1H ATS
- 2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
Jackson still tends to cover 1H early in the season. He's 11-4-1 1H ATS in the first four games of the season, including 4-0 Week 1 and 7-1 in the first two weeks.
Dog World. Over the past two seasons, Jackson is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog, but 5-14 (26%) ATS as a favorite, including 1-11 (8%) when favored by more than three points.
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 29-19-1 | ATS: 4-1 | ||
| Deshaun Watson, CLE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 32-30 | ATS: 29-31-2 | ||
Bengals
The Burrow Corner. Some Joe Burrow stats to get you ready for Week 1 and on:
- Burrow is 32-17 ATS (65.3%) in his career, making him the seventh-most profitable entering 2023 over the last 20 years: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Alex Smith and Burrow.
- The QBs with the highest ATS win percentages over the last 20 years (min. 25 starts): Bridgewater, Shaun Hill and Burrow.
- Burrow is 19-8 ATS road/neutral, including 16-5 the last two seasons.
- Burrow is 19-6 SU as a favorite and he's won eight straight games as a favorite. He's 12-1 SU as a favorite over his last 13 games.
- Burrow is 8-8 SU vs. AFC North and 21-11-1 SU vs. all other divisions.
- Burrow is 1-4 SU vs. Browns compared to 28-15-1 SU vs. all other teams.
- Since Burrow was drafted, the Bengals are 2-5 SU and 4-3 ATS without him. Using Ryan Finley and Brandon Allen, they've averaged just 16.3 points per game on offense.
Streak is Over. The Bengals' 11.5 win total is their first double-digit win total since 1989, which ends the second-longest drought without a double-digit win total in the NFL.
Keeping it Close. The Bengals have lost SU by more than three points once in their last 23 games, and they didnāt have Ja'Marr Chase in that game.
White Hot. The Bengals are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 regular-season games. The Browns gave them one of those two ATS losses.
Browns
New Era? The Browns won their opener last year and are now 1-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005, and 2-22-1 SU in openers since 1995. No team had lost even 10 straight openers prior.
Cleveland is 0-10-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 2005 and 1-15-1 SU in Week 1 home games since 1999. The Browns' only win was in 2004 vs. Kyler Boller and the Ravens.
QB1. Deshaun Watson is 29-31-2 ATS in his career and 12-17-2 ATS as a favorite. This will be his first game as a home dog with the Browns.
- Watson is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in Week 1 and 2-5 SU and ATS over the first two weeks.
- Watson hasn't finished above .500 ATS since his rookie year in 2017.
Struggle Bus. Browns are 5-13 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 142 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin.
Bad Omen? The Browns have odds of +3500 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to results.
Browns SU Record With 40-1 or Shorter Super Bowl Odds Since 1990
- 2022: 7-10
- 2021: 8-9
- 2019: 6-10
- 2008: 4-12
- 2003: 5-11
- 2002: 9-7
- 1995: 5-11
- 1993: 7-9
- 1992: 7-9
- 1990: 3-13
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 13-23 | ATS: 15-21 | ||
| Anthony Richardson, IND | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 | ||
Jaguars
High Expectations. The Jaguars went over their win total (6.5) last year. Jacksonville's win total under is now 10-2 over the last 12 years. The Jags' win total of 9.5 is their highest win total since 10 in 2008, when they won five games.
- Jacksonville finished the season last year 6-1 SU and ATS in last seven games.
- The Jags are tied with the 49ers and Chiefs for the lowest odds to win any NFL Division this year at -165.
Road Woes. Trevor Lawrence is 4-14 SU and 7-11 ATS on the road. He ended last year on a four-game ATS road win streak. This will be Lawrenceās third career game as a road favorite. The other two came at Houston, where he's 1-1 SU and ATS.
For what it's worth, the Jaguars have won four straight road games ATS entering this season.
Get to Know Trevor.
- Lawrence is 15-21 ATS in his career. He's 10-9 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
- Lawrence is 14-22 against 1H spread for his career. Since he was drafted in 2021, that's the second worst of 85 QBs, ahead of just Tom Brady.
- Lawrence is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in Indianapolis, having lost by six and seven points.
Like a Fine Wine. Pederson is 53-52 ATS in his head-coaching career. He's 29-37 from September-November and 24-15 from January on.
Here We Go Again. The Jaguars are 25-1 to win the Super Bowl. This is just the fifth time since 2000 that they're under 30-1 to win it all.
Jaguars With Under 30-1 Super Bowl Odds Since 2000
- 2019: 25-1; 6-10
- 2018: 14-1; 5-11
- 2008: 13-1; 5-11
- 2000: 12-1; 7-9
Frequent Flyer. This season, the Jaguars will become the first team to play back-to-back games in London.
Under the Sea. Lawrence is 22-14 to the under in the last two seasons, making him the most profitable QB to the under in the NFL.
Colts
Tough Start. Since 2008, the Colts are 2-12-1 SU and 1-13-1 ATS in Week 1.
Over the last 20 years, the Colts are 5-13-2 ATS in their season opener, making them the least profitable team ATS in the NFL.
Division Foe. The Colts are 14-24-2 ATS vs. Jaguars over the last 20 years (a $100 bettor would be down $1,555), which makes them the least profitable opponent in that span. Indy is 2-13-1 ATS vs. Jaguars since 2015, but the Colts haven't gone 2-0 ATS vs. the Jags in a season since 2014.
New Man. Anthony Richardson threw 24 touchdown passes in his college career, which is the fewest by a first-round pick since Michael Vick in 2001. He has the lowest completion rate (54.7%) by a first-round QB since Jake Locker in 2011 (54.0).
Fewest College Starts by First-Round QB Over Last 20 Years
- 2023 Anthony Richardson, 13 (set to start Week 1)
- 2017 Mitch Trubisky, 13 (started Week 5)
- 2019 Dwayne Haskins, 14 (started Week 9)
Same Old Colts. For Indy, it's a new quarterback every single season.
Most Consecutive Years With Different Week 1 Starting QB
- 1987-93 Chargers, seven
- 1997-03 Ravens, seven
- 2013-19 Browns, seven
- 2017-23 Washington, seven
- 2017-23 Colts, seven
As noted above, Richardson is the seventh different Colts Week 1 starter since 2017. Andrew Luck started in 2016. This is the eighth consecutive season with a different Week 1 starter than the previous season ā tied for the second-longest streak all-time (1998-06 Bears; 9).
Colts QB in Week 1 ā SU/ATS Result by Year
- 2023: Anthony Richardson
- 2022: Matt Ryan ā P/L
- 2021: Carson Wentz ā L/L
- 2020: Philip Rivers ā L/L
- 2019: Jacoby Brissett ā L/P
- 2018: Andrew Luck ā L/L
- 2017: Scott Tolzien ā L/L
Decent Road. Colts have some big schedule advantages this season.
- Only seven true road games (in London).
- Face two teams (LV/LAR) in second straight road game, on short rest (also their only West Coast opponent).
- Week 11 bye into Week 12, face TB on second straight road game coming from SF.
- Second game vs. JAC, they are coming off consecutive London games.
Back at the Bottom. Colts have the fourth-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 (ARI, TB, HOU, IND).
- The third time with 100-1 odds or higher to win it all since 2000 (2023, 2017, 2012).
- Their win total of 6.5 is the lowest since 2012.
| Baker Mayfield, TB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 32-39 | ATS: 29-41-1 | ||
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 73-66-2 | ATS: 69-70-2 | ||
Bucs
The Old Bucs. Tampa Bay has lost six straight road games ATS entering this season.
Bad Bowles. Todd Bowles is one of the worst coaches as an underdog.
- Bowles is 12-36 SU and 18-27-3 ATS as an underdog (22-15 SU as a favorite).
- He was 0-4 SU as a dog last season and is 10-34 SU since 2016.
- Of 144 head coaches, Bowlesā 18-27-3 ATS mark as a dog is 140th (-$994 for a $100 bettor).
Bad Baker. Baker Mayfield is 29-41-1 (41.4%) ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,323. Over the last 20 years, heās the seventh-least profitable QB ATS of 272 QBs. Since 2018, heās the third-worst of 116 QBs behind Matt Ryan and Carson Wentz.
Most Consecutive Week 1 Starts by QB With Different Team
- 2021-23 Baker Mayfield, 3
- 2020-22 Carson Wentz, 3
- 2009-11 Donovan McNabb, 3
- 2007-09 Brett Favre, 3
- 2003-05 Kurt Warner, 3
Beyond Brady. For the second time, a team will look to transition the year after losing Tom Brady.
- In 2023, Bucs win total is 6.5.
- In 2020, Patriots went 7-9 and under their win total of nine.
Vikings
Captain Kirk. Cousins is 69-70-2 ATS in his career. He was 30-28 ATS with Washington and is 39-42-2 ATS with Minnesota.
- The Vikings won only two games by more than one score last year, including 11-1 SU in one-score games. They ended up with a -10 point differential.
- Cousins is 10-16 ATS at home since 2020, which is 83rd of 85 QBs.
- Cousins has had his issues on Monday Night Football. This year, Minnesota is slated to play on Monday night against the 49ers (Oct. 23) and the Bears (Nov. 27). In his career, Cousins is 2-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football.
Over The Mark. The over is 22-12 in Cousinsā 34 starts since 2021 ā making him the most profitable QB to the over in that span (of 85 QBs).
Worst Point Differential Among 13+ Win Teams Since Merger
- 2022 Vikings -10 2023: 8.5 win total
- 1979 Oilers +26 1980: 11-6 SU (WC), 6-9-2 ATS
- 1990 Raiders +31 1991: 9-8 SU (WC), 8-9 ATS (U10 win total)
- 1993 Chiefs +31 1994: 9-8 SU (WC), 9-8 ATS (U9.5 win total)
| Ryan Tannehill, TEN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 80-68 | ATS: 72-72-4 | ||
| Derek Carr, NO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 63-80 | ATS: 68-73-2 | ||
Titans
Mike & the Mad Dog. Mike Vrabel is 48-34 (59%) SU and 42-38-2 (53%) ATS as Titans coach.
- As an underdog, Vrabel is 20-19 (51%) SU and 23-15-1 (61%) ATS, including 22-9-1 (71%) when the spread is +3 or higher.
- The Titans will be underdogs in each of their first four games, and they play the Browns in Week 3 when Cleveland is coming off a road Monday night game in Pittsburgh.
- Vrabel is 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in Week 1, but he's 11-6 ATS in games with more than a full week of rest during the regular season.
All About Ryan. In his career, Ryan Tannehill is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU vs. the Saints.
- Tannehill is 72-72-4 ATS in his career: 31-27-2 ATS with the Titans and 41-45-2 with the Dolphins.
- Tannehill is 53-43-2 ATS from September-November and 19-29-2 from December on.
- He's 29-18 to the 1H spread over the past three seasons, which is the best in the NFL.
- Tannehill has started three Week 1 games for the Titans, and he's 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, failing to cover by 11.8 points per game. With the Dolphins, he was 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in Week 1.
Saints
Familiar Territory. The Saints open the season at home as four-point favorites. New QB Derek Carr has struggled mightily as a favorite in his career.
- Carr is 17-29-1 ATS as a favorite, all with the Raiders, with a $100 bettor down $1,286. That makes him the fourth-least-profitable QB as a favorite in the last 20 years. Heās ahead of just Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan.
- Carr has a new HC-OC-QB coach regime for the fifth time in his career. He was 8-8 ATS in 2015, 5-8-2 ATS in 2017, 6-10 ATS in 2018 and 7-8 ATS in 2022.
Dennis the Menace. In his coaching career, Dennis Allen is 15-38 (28%) SU and 21-31-1 (40%) ATS. Allen-coached teams are 0-4 toward the over on their preseason win total.
Dennis Allen NFL Coaching Career
- Allen is 7-5 (58%) SU and 4-8 (33%) ATS as a favorite.
- As an underdog of more than a field goal, Allen is 5-23 SU.
Not So Fast. Since the NFL switched to the current divisional format in 2002, there have been 49 teams listed as the sole favorite to win their division at plus-money odds like the Saints this year. Only 15 of those teams, or 30.6%, went on to win the division (via Chris Raybon).
Easy Bounce Back? Saints went under their win total last year for the first time since 2015, and they now have a relatively easy schedule. They donāt face a single team with Super Bowl odds lower than 20-1.
No Voodoo. The Superdome isnāt scary anymore. The Saints are 6-9 SU at home over the last two seasons, and only three teams have won fewer than six home games in that span.
Saints QB Fantasy Ranking by Year With Taysom Hill
- āā2017 Brees 262 (ninth)
- 2018 Brees 303 (eighth)
- 2019 Brees 224 (21st)
- 2020 Brees 209 (21st)
- 2021 Jameis 117 (32nd)
- 2022 Dalton 174 (22nd)
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 7-1 | ATS: 6-2 | ||
| Kenny Pickett, PIT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 7-5 | ATS: 8-4 | ||
49ers
The Shanahan System. San Francisco is 20-11 ATS as a road dog under Kyle Shanahan (third best in NFL since he became head coach). As a road favorite, S.F. is just 10-11 ATS.
- San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in Week 1 under Shanahan (2-4 SU).
- The 49ers went 7-0 ATS vs. NFC West last season.
Efficient. The 49ers are 25-15 ATS over the last two seasons, making them the fourth-most profitable team in the NFL during the span (CIN, DET, DAL, SF).
- In games Christian McCaffrey started last season, the 49ers went 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS.
Next Step? At the moment, Brock Purdy is the third-most profitable San Francisco starting QB ATS over the last 20 years. The most profitable 49ers QBs over the last 20 years have been Jimmy Garoppolo (35-25-1), Shaun Hill (12-4), and then Purdy (6-2).
If We See Sam. Darnold is 22-32-1 ATS in his NFL career. In the last 20 years, he is one of just nine QBs to post a record at least 10 games under .500 ATS (Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer, Marc Bulger, Daunte Culpepper, Kerry Collins, Baker Mayfield, Colt McCoy and Sam Darnold).
- Darnold was 4-2 ATS in 2022, his first season above .500 ATS (below 2018-21).
- Darnold is 9-19 ATS on the road, which is the second-worst mark of 257 QBs over last 20 years, only ahead of Matt Hasselbeck.
Steelers
Rare Situation. Ā The last time the Steelers were home dogs in Week 1 was back in 2010 vs. the Falcons and Matt Ryan. They've only been a home dog in Week 1 twice since 2000 (2010, 2000 vs. Ravens). Not to mention, this is the Steelers' first Week 1 home game since 2014 (eight straight Week 1 road games).
Some Momentum. Ā The Steelers have a four-game ATS win streak entering this season, which is the longest of any team (won four straight games SU, second longest behind Kansas City).
- Pittsburgh has won three straight Week 1 matchups under Mike Tomlin (3-0 SU/ATS).
- Kenny Pickett posted a record of 8-4 ATS as a rookie last year, which included three straight ATS wins to close the season.
New Year? Diontae Johnson hasnāt scored a TD in 17 straight games (all of last season).
The Tomlin Way. The Steelers are 53-30-4 ATS (64%) as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,099, which makes him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years.
- The Steelers havenāt finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016, and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
- The Steelers are 16-4-3 ATS as home dogs under Tomlin (+$1,136, 14-9 SU).
- The Steelers are 30-19-3 ATS and have covered the spread by an average of 2.4 PPG since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger.
TJ Matters. The Steelers were 8-2 SU and ATS with T.J. Watt last season, and they were 1-6 SU without him (2-4-1 ATS).
- ATS cover margin with & without Watt last season: With: +5 PPG | W/O: -4.7 PPG
Steel Outlook. The Steelers are 66-1 to win the Super Bowl this season, their second-longest odds to win it all in the last 20 years.
- The Steelers have posted 19 consecutive non-losing seasons, which is tied with New England for the second-longest streak of that nature. Dallas currently holds the record with 21 straight under Tom Landry (1965-1985). The Steelers have posted 16 straight under Tomlin to begin coaching career (NFL record).
Longest Steelers Odds to Win Super Bowl Since Merger (Wins)
- 80-1 ā 2022 (9)
- 75-1 ā 2000 (9)
- 75-1 ā 1989 (9)
- 66-1 ā 2023
| Joshua Dobbs, ARI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-2 | ATS: 1-1 | ||
| Sam Howell, WAS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 | ||
Cardinals
Dog for Life. The Cardinals are projected to be underdogs in every game this season.
Lowest projected spreads for Arizona: Week 10 vs. Falcons and Week 11 at Texans.
Backup Time. With Kyler Murray sidelined, Arizona will start a backup ā either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune ā in Week 1. The Cards are 3-6 SU and 5-4 ATS with a backup QB in the Kyler Murray era (since 2019).
- Points scored in Arizona games last year without Murray: 13, 19, 16, 15, 10, 27.
Winter is Coming. The Cardinals play three cold-weather games on the road against Pittsburgh, Chicago and Philadelphia in December. Over the last 20 years, Arizona is 15-24 SU in temperatures that are 50 degrees or colder.
Long Shot. Over the last 20 years, only three teams have won their division with preseason odds of 20-1 or higher ā and two have done it since 2020 Washington (2020) and Cincinnati (2021). The only team 20-1 or higher this year? The Cards.
20-1 or Longer ā Win Division Last 20 Years
- 2021 Bengals, 25-1
- 2008 Dolphins, 25-1
- 2020 Washington, 22-1
Desert Drought. For the Cardinals, it has been a long time.
Longest Active Championship Drought ā Four Major Sports
- NFL ā Cardinals, 1948 (75 years)
- MLB ā Guardians, 1949 (74 years)
- NBA ā Kings, 1952 (72 years)
- NFL ā Lions, 1958 (65 years)
- NBA ā Hawks, 1959 (65 years)
Low, Low, Low. The Arizona Cardinals have the lowest win total this season at 4.5. Since 1990 (WC era), Arizona is the 26th team with a win total below five. The over is 14-9-2 as the 25 previous teams went over by 0.6 wins per season. This is the lowest Cardinals win total since 1992 (also 4.5).
Lowest Win Total in 17-Game Schedule Era (Since 2021)
- 4 ā 2021 Texans (3 wins)
- 4.5 ā 2023 Cardinals
- 4.5 ā 2022 Falcons (7 wins)
- 4.5 ā 2022 Texans (3 wins)
- 4.5 ā 2021 Lions (4 wins)
Commanders
Summer of Sam. With Sam Howell at quarterback, the Commanders are seven-point favorites in Week 1.
- The last two times Washington was at least a six-point favorite in Week 1 was in 2002 and 2005, and the last time it was higher than a six-point favorite in Week 1 was in 2000 (10.5-point favorites at home against the Panthers).
- It's Washington's first game as a seven-point favorite or higher since the Kirk Cousins/Eli Manning matchup in November 2017.
Riverboat Ron. Ron Rivera has been an NFL head coach for 12 seasons. His teams have finished .500 or worse in nine of 12 seasons. However, he's won Coach of the Year in two of the other three seasons.
Secretary of Defense. In the Commandersā last 24 home games, the under is 18-5-1, which includes an 18-7-1 record since 2020. Thatās No. 2 in the NFL behind the Giants at 18-6-1.
Similar Situation. Like the Colts, Washington has struggled to find stability at quarterback.
Most Consecutive Years With Unique Week 1 Starting QB
- 1987-93: Chargers (7)
- 1997-03: Ravens (7)
- 2013-19: Browns (7)
- 2017-23: Washington (7)
- 2017-23: Colts (7)
| Jordan Love, GB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 0-1 | ATS: 1-0 | ||
| Justin Fields, CHI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 5-20 | ATS: 8-17 | ||
Packers
Rare Dog. Matt LaFleur is 13-4 (77%) ATS as an underdog (12-4 with Aaron Rodgers and 1-0 with Jordan Love). LaFleur is 42-29 ATS in his career overall.
New Era. The Packers are +6600 to win the Super Bowl ā their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006.
- Green Bay is favored in just two of its first 13 games (Week 3 vs. Saints, Week 9 vs. Rams).
- A win total of 7.5 is the Packers' lowest since 2007 (won 13 games).
- Packers are plus money (+165) to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009 (+100) ā they made the playoffs that season.
Longest Packers Odds to Win Super Bowl over Last 40 Years (Wins)
- 200-1: 1989 (10)
- 100-1: 2006 (8)
- 75-1: 1988 (4)
- 66-1: 2023
- 60-1: 1992 (9)
Trouble Out Front. Green Bay went 4-5 SU as a favorite of over a field goal last season. Between 2010-21, the Packers went 96-19-1 SU in that spot. Their last year below .500 SU in that spot? 2004 (4-5 SU).
Bears
A New Start. The Bears went 3-14 SU last season (most losses in franchise history).
- They closed the season with a home losing streak of seven games, which is tied for the longest in the NFL with the Texans.
- Including away games, they've lost 10 consecutive contests.
Bye Aaron. This is the first time since 2019 that Chicago is favored to beat Green Bay (seven straight meetings as an underdog).
- Since the 2009 season, the Bears have been favored to beat the Packers three times in 27 meetings.
- Over the last 20 years, the Bears are 12-28-1 ATS (30%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,673. Washington is their second-worst matchup (1-7 ATS; -$608).
Bet the Under? The Bears havenāt gone over their win total since 2018. They are 2-9-1 to the under since 2011.
Worst of the Worst. The Bears have been atrocious against their own division, going 5-18-1 ATS vs. NFC North teams since 2019. A $100 bettor would be down $1,314. Chicago is the least profitable team vs. its own division in the NFL in that span.
Future Note. Chicago faces three dome teams in December or later (Lions, Cardinals, Falcons).
- The Bears are 20-9-2 ATS in freezing temperatures at home over the last 20 years (best in NFL).
| Jimmy Garoppolo, LV | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 44-19 | ATS: 37-25-1 | ||
| Russell Wilson, DEN | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 117-71-1 | ATS: 96-86-7 | ||
Raiders
Same Jimmy. New Raiders starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is 15-7 SU and 17-5 ATS as an underdog in his career.
In the last 20 years, 266 quarterbacks have been an underdog at least once. None of these QBs have been more than four games above .500. Garoppolo is currently eight games over .500 SU as an underdog.
- Garoppolo is 6-8 ATS in September and 31-17-1 ATS in all other months.
Old Vegas. The Raiders havenāt won their division in 20 seasons, which is tied for the third-longest streak in the NFL with the Jets.
- Since moving to Las Vegas, the Raiders have been average at home: 11-14 SU, 13-12 ATS.
Don't Lose Jimmy. Backup QB Brian Hoyer is 16-25 SU as a starter; he's lost 12 consecutive starts SU (1-14 SU over his last 15 games).
The Ole' Kliff. Josh McDaniels-led teams tend to fade late in the season.
- 10-11 SU from September through October.
- 7-17 SU from November onward.
Broncos
Sean of The Dead. This is Sean Payton's first season with Denver. In his first year with New Orleans (2006), the Saints went 10-6 SU/ATS.
- Payton ATS by QB: Brees: 122-104-3 | All others: 18-11 ATS.
- Most profitable coaches ATS last 20 yrs: 1) Bill Belichick 2) Mike McCarthy 3) Sean Payton
- Paytonās teams have finished above .500 ATS for seven straight years (2015-21).
- In 16 seasons, Payton's teams are 13-3 above .500 ATS and 9-5-2 to the over on their win total.
A Bad Streak. The under is 6-0-1 on the Broncos' win total since 2016.
Mile High. The Broncos play at home in Weeks 1 and 2 against the Raiders and Commanders.
- Denver is 32-8 SU at home in the month of September dating back to 2002.
- The Broncos are 13-1 SU in the month of September at home against divisional rivals.
Future Note. The Broncos go on the road for three straight games from Weeks 13-15. Teams on the third-plus game of a road trip are 50-54-2 ATS over the last 20 years ā September-November: 23-20 ATS | December-January: 27-34-2 ATS.
All About Russ. Russell Wilson is 5-7 SU at home over the last two seasons. He was 60-18 SU in his first nine seasons in the NFL.
- Wilson is 12-6 ATS in September (best of any month); heās 3-11 ATS in October (worst of any month).
| Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 21-13 | ATS: 19-14-1 | ||
| Justin Herbert, LAC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 25-25 | ATS: 27-22-1 | ||
Dolphins
Miami Motivation. The Dolphins have the hardest schedule this season, according to Sean Koerner.
- Entering the 2023 season, Miami has lost five straight road games.
- Miami hasn't won the AFC East in 14 seasons (fifth-longest active streak in NFL).
- The Dolphins are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl ā their lowest title odds since 2015 (20-1; closed under 20-1 in 2003).
- Their 2023 win total is 9.5 (highest since 2004).
- As noted, it's going to be a tough gauntlet. These are the quarterbacks Miami faces: Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen (twice), Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers (twice), Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson.
Starting West. This will be the Dolphins' 20th game in the Pacific Time Zone in the last 20 years. They are 12-7 ATS, but 0-2 SU/ATS under Mike McDaniel.
- Tua Tagovailoa is 0-3 ATS on the road in his PST career (1-2 SU).
- Overall, Eastern Time Zone teams are 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS in LAC vs. Herbert.
- EST teams on the road vs. PST teams in Week 1 are 8-5-1 ATS over the last 20 years.
A Different Tua? Tagovailoa is 19-14-1 ATS in his career (12-5 ATS at home; 7-9-1 ATS road/neutral).
- Tagovailoa is 17-7-1 ATS in EST | 2-6 ATS in all other time zones
South Beach Love. Miami hasnāt finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015.
- 33-20-3 ATS since 2016 at home. The Dolphins are the best home team ATS in that span.
Chargers
Tough Schedule. The Chargers donāt face a team with a win total below seven this season.
Road Warriors. Los Angeles has finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons.
Just in Time. Justin Herbert is 27-22-1 ATS in his career.
- Underdog: 12-6 ATS; 16-2 in 6-pt teasers.
- Favorite: 15-16-1 ATS; 22-8 in 6-pt teasers.
Herbert ATS by time zone
- EST/CST: 12-5 ATS
- MST/PST: 15-17-1 ATS
Canāt Hold. Herbert is 15-31-4 (32.6%) against the second-half spread in his career. Since 2005, heās 240th (of 245) QBs in 2H ATS profitability.
- Herbert is 7-21-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,455 ā worst in NFL since he was drafted).
Herbert 2H ATS Career
- 2022: 6-10-2 ATS
- 2021: 5-12 ATS
- 2020: 4-9-2 ATS
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 25-13 | ATS: 19-18-1 | ||
| Mac Jones, NE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 16-16 | ATS: 14-17-1 | ||
Eagles
Fly Eagles Fly. The Eagles own the easiest schedule this season, according to Sean Koerner.
- +700 to win the Super Bowl ā their lowest odds to win it all since 2005 (5-1).
- Finished with 70 sacks last season, which was the third most in the regular season (72 ā 1984 Bears; 71 ā 1989 Vikings).
- Favored in first nine games of the season (dogs at K.C. and Dallas; 15 of 17).
Sirianni & Jalen. Nick Sirianni is 18-19-1 ATS in his career; heās 5-7-1 ATS with extra time to prep (Week 1 & 8+ days).
- In his career, Jalen Hurts is 3-9 ATS as a road favorite. He's the second-least profitable QB as a road favorite since being drafted in 2020, ahead of just Derek Carr (2-9 ATS).
- Hurts is 9-3 SU as a road favorite in his career. He's won eight straight SU (7-0 SU as road favorite last season).
Jalen Hurts' Career
- Home: 13-5-1 ATS (second best of 85 QBs since 2020, behind Jared Goff).
- Road/Neutral: 6-13 ATS (worst of 86 QBs since 2020).
Patriots
The Wrong Foot. The Patriots' four-game ATS losing streak entering this season is the longest of any team.
Mac Center. Mac Jones is 14-17-1 ATS in his career. He's the least-profitable QB in the last 20 years under Bill Belichick.
- Jones is 0-2 SU/ATS in Week 1.
- Jones is 4-0 ATS vs. Zach Wilson, but 10-17-1 ATS vs. other QBs.
- Jones is 11-7-1 ATS as a favorite and 3-10 ATS as an underdog. He was 0-7 ATS as an underdog last season ā the rest of the NFL was 155-117 ATS as a dog.
New Territory. Recently, New England has struggled against quality teams. Since 2019, the Pats are 13-20-2 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents ā that's the fourth-worst ATS mark in the NFL.
- In that same span, they are 9-17-1 ATS vs. teams who made playoffs in the previous season ā that's the third-worst mark in the league (Seattle, Chicago).
Post Tom. This is the third time since 2004 the Patriots are underdogs in Week 1 (2022: +3 at Miami ā lost 20-7 | 2016 (Jimmy Garoppolo): +9 at Arizona ā won 23-21).
- Last time the Patriots were dogs in Week 1 of consecutive years? 2002-03.
Biggest Week 1 dog since 2000:
- +9 ā 2016 at ARI (W, 23-21)
- +4.5 ā 2023 vs. PHI
- +3 ā 2022 at MIA (L, 20-7)
- +3 ā 2000 vs. TB (L, 21-16)
Over 20 Years. Last time as an underdog in Week 1 at home? 2002 ā Tom Brady vs Kordell Stewart.
Biggest Week 1 home dog for N.E. since 1980:
- +4.5 ā 2023 vs. PHI
- +3 ā 2000 vs. TB (L, 21-16)
- +2.5 ā 2002 vs. PIT (W, 30-14)
New Era. The Patriots are +750 to win the AFC East. It's their longest odds to win the division since 2001 (+1200). New England's win total is set at 7.5 (lowest since 6.5 in 2001).
- The Patriots spent 18 years with preseason odds of 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl (15-of-18 below 10-1). They've had odds of 66-1, 40-1, 40-1 and 30-1 the last four years.
- Since Brady left, the Pats are 25-26 SU and 24-26-1 ATS.
Aura Gone. Between 2003 and 2020, Belichick was 42-16 SU in September, but recently, the trend has fallen by the wayside as heās 2-4 SU in September over the last two years.
Patriots since 2020 without Brady
- 5-1 ATS vs. Jets
- 3-10 ATS vs. Bills/Dolphins
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 93-104-1 | ATS: 87-106-5 | ||
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 22-30 | ATS: 26-24-2 | ||
Rams
McVay's Sweet Spot. Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 5-1 SU/ATS in Week 1 and have covered by 6.9 PPG. The Rams lost 31-10 at home vs. the Bills last year.
- McVay is a hot coach early on. He is 16-4 SU in September and has gone above .500 SU in all six seasons.
- McVay is 9-4 ATS vs. Pete Carroll ā his most profitable opposing coach (five straight ATS wins and 8-1 ATS in last nine contests).
End it Now. The Rams lost seven straight road games SU entering the season (longest streak in NFL).
Comeback Kid? Matthew Stafford hasnāt finished above .500 ATS in a season since 2018. He was 2-6-1 ATS last year, which was his worst season since 2013.
- Stafford canāt beat good teams. Heās 30-62 SU, but 7-5 SU with the Rams vs. teams above .500 SU (0-1 SU last year).
- Stafford vs. teams above .500 SU: 17-15 SU as a favorite | 13-47 SU as underdog.
- Stafford is 12-17-1 ATS with Rams. He's the second-least profitable QB for the franchise over the last 20 years (Marc Bulger).
Seahawks
In Pete We Trust. In Pete Carrollās 13 years as Seattle's head coach, the Seahawks are 8-4-1 toward the over on their win total. They always win at least seven games.
- The Seahawks are 8-5 SU and 6-6-1 ATS in openers under Carroll. They've won four straight SU and covered three straight SU.
- 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS when the opener is at home under Carroll, winning by 9.8 PPG.
- When Seattle's opener is at home, the Seahawks have won eight straight SU (6-2 ATS) since 2000.
Airplane Food. On four occasions, opponents will be playing in Seattle on the second leg of back-to-back road games this season.
- Teams on the second leg or later of a road trip when facing Seattle: 12-36 SU and 19-28-1 ATS.
Geno's World. Geno Smith has started three openers. They've all been at home and he's 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS despite never scoring 20-plus points.
- Smith is 19-14-2 ATS as a dog; 7-10 ATS as a favorite.
- Smith is 0-2 ATS vs. Rams, but 2-0 SU.
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 63-40 | ATS: 55-46-2 | ||
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 22-32-1 | ATS: 32-23 | ||
Cowboys
Long Term Success?Ā The Cowboys have gone over their win total the last two years. The last time they've gone over three years in a row? 1990 to 1995 (six years).
- Dallas hasn't won the Super Bowl in 27 seasons (1995) ā 14 teams have won since.
Mike Check. Mike McCarthy is 58-38 ATS vs. division opponents with Green Bay and Dallas (10-8 ATS with Dallas).
- Over the last 20 years, heās the most profitable coach vs. division opponents ATS (+$1,743).
- Against division opponents: 48-27 ATS as favorite; 10-11 ATS as underdog.
Tough Starts. Cowboys are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in Week 1 under McCarthy.
All About Dak. Dak Prescott at home in primetime: 13-4 SU and 11-6 ATS. He's 9-7-1 ATS in primetime on the road.
- Prescott is 20-13-1 ATS in primetime. He's the sixth-most profitable quarterback in primetime games over the last 20 years (Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz).
- Since he was drafted in 2016, Prescott is the second best in primetime behind only Wentz.
- Prescott has excelled against the rest of the NFC East in his career.
Dak vs. NFC East
- PHI: 8-3 SU and ATS.
- WAS: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS.
- NYG: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS.
- Total: 27-7 SU, 24-10 ATS.
Prescott is 24-10 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,283) | 31-36-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$662). Over the past 20 years, Prescott is the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. own division (Rodgers; 53-32 ATS; +$1,859).
Takeaways. If you bet on Prescott to throw an interception in every game last season, you would be up 8.6U (most of any QB). Second was Aaron Rodgers at +7.2U.
Elder Statesman. Aaron Rodgers moving to the Jets makes Prescott the NFLās longest-tenured starting quarterback. He has been the Cowboys' starter since 2016.
Giants
Living on Last Year. The Giants went over their win total last season for first time since 2016. They had gone under in five of previous six years ā since 2011, 9-2-1 to the under.
- The Giants havenāt gone over their win total in consecutive seasons since 2007-08.
Keeping Up With the Joneses. Daniel Jones career: 22-32-1 SU, 32-23 ATS
- Home: 13-15 ATS (-$313)
- Road/Neutral: 19-8 ATS (+$970) ā No. 1 of 95 quarterback since he was drafted
Fade at Night. Jones is 0-4 SU at home in primetime (DAL twice, TB, PIT) ā Heās 1-10 SU, 5-6 ATS in primetime in his career.
- Over the last 20 years, 58 quarterbacks have made at least 10 primetime starts. Jonesā 9.1% winning percentage is the lowest among that group ā next closest is Andy Dalton at 6-21 SU (22.2%).
Giants Go Low in New York. The under in Giants home games is 18-6-1 since 2020 ā best in the NFL.
Dog in the Apple. Brian Daboll led the Giants to an impressive 10-2 (83%) ATS record as an underdog in Year 1, going 6-5-1 (55%) straight-up (SU) in those spots.
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 56-28 | ATS: 44-35-5 | ||
| Aaron Rodgers, NYJ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Career Record | SU: 158-85-1 | ATS: 139-100-5 | ||
Bills
King Opener. Since 2003, the Bills are 14-6 ATS in Week 1 games ā the most profitable team in the NFL ATS (+$683 on $100/game).
More Expectations. Bills are under 10-1 to win the Super Bowl in consecutive years for the first time since 1991-92.
- Their third straight year with a double-digit win total (none before that since 1992).
Tough Route. Bills have a tough schedule in 2023:
- After Week 9, they face seven top-10 teams on the preseason Super Bowl oddsboard.
- They play in London Week 5 vs. the Jaguars; no bye until Week 13.
- Three of last five games after bye on are on the road (KC, LAC, MIA).
- The Bills also have the toughest schedule in the second half of the season (and it isnāt even close), take a look at the teams they play from Week 9 on (Super Bowl odds rank in parentheses): Bengals (5), Broncos (17), Jets (7), Eagles (2), Chiefs (1), Cowboys (6), Chargers (10), Patriots (21) and Dolphins (10).
More About Josh. Josh Allen has excelled against one AFC East opponent consistently in his career. Against the others, it's been hit or miss.
- NE: 7-2-1 ATS
- MIA/NYJ: 8-11-1 ATS
Prime Spot. Away from home (road/neutral) in primetime, Allen's Bills have played teams well. Allen is 7-4 SU/ATS in that spot. His only losses have come against the Chiefs and Titans (1-4 SU/ATS) ā heās 6-0 SU/ATS vs. all other teams.
Close Encounters. Allen is 16-8-1 ATS in āclose gamesā (games with a spread of three points or fewer).
Jets
Back in Green. In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers made 119 home starts at Lambeau Field, but only eight of those starts came as a home underdog (7%).
- Rodgers is 6-1-1 ATS as a home dog in his career.
Aaron Notes. Rodgers in the first two weeks of the season? 12-2-1 SU and 12-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents.
- Rodgers has scored 10 total points in his last two Week 1 games with Green Bay (2021 and 2022).
- Rodgers hasnāt thrown for 300 yards in 21 starts.
- Rodgers hasnāt finished a week top-five in standard fantasy points since Week 14 of 2021 season.
- Since Rodgers got his first start for the Packers in 2008, he is the most profitable starting quarterback ATS ā both in regular season and playoffs ā going 139-100-5 (58.2%) ATS in the regular season. Ironically enough, in Rodgersā 15 seasons, the Packers were just 7-8 to the over on their win total.
Monday Night Heater.Rodgers is 12-6 SU, 10-8 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football. He's won 9 straight MNF games SU. Last loss back in 2013 vs. Bears.
Not Easy to Start. Jets face the top-four scoring teams from 2022 in the first six weeks ā BUF, DAL, KC and PHI.
- New York has the toughest schedule through the first six weeks of the season. All of those games are against teams expected to win at least seven games this season ā five of those teams are projected to win at least eight games and four teams are projected win at least nine games.
Monday Dogs. Underdogs in Week 1 Monday Night Football games are 28-12-1 ATS since 1998.
Hate Their Own. Jets have struggled vs. AFC East. They are 5-25 SU, 10-20 ATS vs. their own division since 2018 ā the least profitable team both SU and ATS in the NFL.
Welcome Back. Jets are 18-1 to win the Super Bowl ā lowest odds to win it all since 2011.
- Jets are +250 to win AFC East ā lowest odds since 2011 (havenāt won since 2002).
- Jets havenāt made playoffs in 12 seasons ā longest drought in NFL.
Longest Active Playoff Drought (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL)
- 12 ā Jets
- 12 ā Sabres
The Big Move. Jets moved from 150-1 to win Super Bowl last year to 18-1 this year.
Biggest Super Bowl Odds Moves Year-to-Year to Inside 20-1 Since Merger
- 1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200)
- 1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700)
- 1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200)
- 2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200)
The Betting Markets
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ā¤µļø
| Biggest NFL Week 1 Public Sides | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commanders (-7) vs. ARI | 81% of bets | |||||
Jaguars (-4.5) at IND | 70% of bets | |||||
| Biggest NFL Week 1 Line Moves | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buccaneers (+6.5 to +4.5) at CHI | ||||||
Jaguars (-3.5 to -4.5) at IND | ||||||
NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ā¤µļø
| Most Bet Games By Ticket Count in Week 1 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
49ers at Steelers (+2.5) | 180k bets | |||||
Texans at Ravens (-9.5) | 175k bets | |||||
| Biggest NFL Week 1 Public Totals | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PHI-NE (O/U: 45) | 78% of bets to under | |||||
MIA-LAC (O/U: 51) | 74% of bets to over | |||||
NFL Betting Systems
System: High Winds. This one is simple, click the link to the left to see the current matches for this week. This system looks at middle temperature and high winds and sorts it for you. It has resulted in a +9.1% ROI since 2005.
Matches: Check System Matches
System: Early Season Upsets. Early in the regular season (first three weeks), we are looking for divisional games with small spreads. Take the moneyline. This system has a +22% ROI in 150-plus game sample size.
Matches: CLE, NYG, IND, CAR, GB, LAR, LV, NYJ
System: Nobody Believes. The public tends to overrate favorites and home-field advantage, no matter what time of year it is. And early in the season, the public also tends to overrate what happened the year prior.
Road underdogs in Week 1 are 105-94-8 ATS over the last 20 years. If you split those road dogs by whether that team made the playoffs the year prior, you see a drastic change:
Matches: DET/KC, ARI/WAS, TEN/NO, HOU/BAL, CAR/ATL, GB/CHI, LAR/SEA, LV/DEN
NFL Anytime TD & First TD Data
Below is the 2022 Anytime Touchdown sheet ā which encompasses every player to score a touchdown in 2022 and their total units for the entire season. After Week 1 of 2023, we will be tracking every teams touchdowns by player, including their unit profitability.
Now for the "First TD data." For the last two seasons (2021 & 2022), here is a quick run through of all players to score a touchdown in the first quarter. After Week 1 of 2023, we will be tracking every teams first touchdown by player, including their unit profitability.
The Big Picture
League Trends ā¤µļø
Tracking Backups
What to Expect/Look For in 2023
Before we begin, we should take a second to try and define what exactly a "backup QB" is. Between being benched, getting injured and numerous other reasons why a coach would switch to another quarterback, some of the difficulty in quantifying a "backup" is simply the situation.
For example, let's look at the 2019 Jaguars.
- Nick Foles started Week 1 and broke his collarbone.
- Rookie Gardner Minshew got the start in Week 2 ā that qualifies as a backup.
- Minshew starts eight games (all as a backup) then Foles comes back for the Jags' 10th game.
- Foles starts games 10-12 and is benched for Minshew, who starts games 13-16 ā those games do not qualify as a backup.
Backup stats:
- Since 2013 (last 10 years): 288-460-2 SU, 365-374-11 ATS
- Last five years: 149-250-1 SU, 207-188-5 ATS
- Last three years: 85-152-1 SU, 124-111-3 ATS
- Last year: 43-55 SU, 56-40-2 ATS
Week 1 Backups: Arizona Cardinals/Kyler Murray
Indoor Rollercoaster
Week 1 Overs
In Week 1, indoor games are hitting the over at a rate of 62% since 2015 ā 24-15 to the over, cashing by 3.8 PPG.
Week 1 Matches: Dolphins/Chargers, Buccaneers/Vikings, Panthers/Falcons, Jaguars/Colts, Titans/Saints.
Best of the Best
Double-Digit Win Totals
- Double-digit win totals are 10-6 to under since 17-game ā 20-12-1 to under last five years (41.2% since 1990)
- Win totals of 10 & 10.5: 75-44-7 to under since 1990
- Win totals of 11 or more: 29-26-3 to over since 1990
2023 Matches: Bengals, Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, Bills, 49ers.
Super Bowl Futures ā¤µļø
Biggest Super Bowl Riser
Seattle Seahawks: 35-1 (SEA was 66-1 to win SB when odds opened)
Biggest Super Bowl Faller
Los Angeles Rams: 80-1 (LAR was 30-1 to win SB when odds opened)
Win Total Tracker ā¤µļø
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL Win Totals, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Win Total Grid & Progress
| Trending Up š | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bengals | 0-0 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Chiefs | 0-1 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Eagles | 0-0 | Win Total: 11.5 | ||||
Ravens | 0-0 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
Bills | 0-0 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
49ers | 0-0 | Win Total: 10.5 | ||||
Jaguars | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Browns | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Cowboys | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Lions | 1-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Chargers | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Dolphins | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Saints | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Jets | 0-0 | Win Total: 9.5 | ||||
Falcons | 0-0 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Broncos | 0-0 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
| Trending Down š | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vikings | 0-0 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Seahawks | 0-0 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Steelers | 0-0 | Win Total: 8.5 | ||||
Giants | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Panthers | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Bears | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Packers | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Titans | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Patriots | 0-0 | Win Total: 7.5 | ||||
Rams | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Raiders | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Texans | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Colts | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Buccaneers | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Commanders | 0-0 | Win Total: 6.5 | ||||
Cardinals | 0-0 | Win Total: 4.5 | ||||
ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ā¤µļø
For more information on NFL Against The Spread standings, check out the Action Network page on the website.
Award Betting Progress ā¤µļø
Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL award odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets.
NFL Awards Matrix
 |  Leader |  2nd In Odds |  3rd In Odds |
| NFL MVP | Patrick Mahomes (+600) | Joe Burrow (+700) | Josh Allen (+750) |
| Offensive POY | Ja'Marr Chase (+1000) | Justin Jefferson (+1300) | Christian McCaffrey (+1500) |
| Defensive POY | Micah Parsons (+450) | Myles Garrett (+600) | T.J. Watt (+750) |
| Offensive ROY | Bijan Robinson (+250) | Bryce Young (+450) | Anthony Richardson (+700) |
| Defensive ROY | Will Anderson (+400) | Jalen Carter (+600) | Devon Witherspoon (+1000) |
| Comeback POY | Damar Hamlin (-275) | Tua Tagovailoa (+2000) | Lamar Jackson (+2000) |
| Coach Of The Year | Dan Campbell (+800) | Sean Payton (+1100) | Arthur Smith (+1400) |
| ** Updated as of August 29th | |||
Full NFL betting awards listed via BetMGM:
Trivia Instructions
To guess, click the answer at the bottom you think matches either the best (first place), second-best (second place) or third-best (third place) for the listed trivia question, going from left to right ā so you are guessing first place first.
When you have selected what you think is the best, hit submit. A green box means you are correct, a yellow box means that the answer is in another place in the game and a gray box means the answer is not on the list at all.
After completion, click the "share on Twitter" button to show off on social and share the question/answers.
Trivia Question
Welcome to Week 1. Which quarterbacks have been good early in the season? Name the three most-profitable NFL quarterbacks against the spread in the month of September over the last 20 years. Six choices below.
Guess the best QB ATS in September
What's Next: Week 2 Preview
Steelers
- Steelers are 5-0 vs. the Browns at home in the regular season over the last five years, SU and ATS. Average line was Steelers -2.4 and they won by 15.4 PPG with four of the five wins by double digits.
Vikings
- Kirk Cousins is 7-3 ATS vs. Eagles in his career ā his most profitable opponent (+$371 on $100 wager).
NFL Notes
- Anyone -7 or higher after a Week 1 loss? Favorites of 7 points or more who are under .500 SU on the season are 82-14 SU since 2016, winning by 11 PPG (incl. 36-5 SU last 3 seasons).
- Favorites of more than 7 points who are under .500 SU on the season are 22-0 SU last two seasons and 66-9 SU since 2016.
- One thing history has taught us about Week 1. Not all scoring is consistent and don't believe everything you just saw. Since 2005, teams that scored 28 or more points in Week 1 have gone 57-84-4 ATS (40%) in Week 2.
