Welcome back, football! The Action Network primer is here for another NFL season, and it's time to get into the action with 16 Week 1 games.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 1 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Monday, Sept. 2, at 11 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
A Big Leap
Stroud, Texans Become Contenders
The Texans started last season with 200-1 odds to win the Super Bowl with rookie CJ Stroud at quarterback. After making the divisional round last year, this season, they have 16-1 odds to win it all. This would be the third-biggest move for a team year-to-year to 20-1 or shorter to win it all.
Biggest Super Bowl Odds Moves Year-to-Year to 20-1 or Shorter Since 1977
- 1979 to 1980 WAS 300-1 to 8-1 (+29,200)
- 1990 to 1991 DAL 250-1 to 20-1 (+23,000)
- 2023 to 2024 HOU 200-1 to 16-1 (+18,400)
- 1999 to 2000 STL 150-1 to 3-1 (+14,700)
- 1983 to 1984 NO 150-1 to 8-1 (+14,200)
- 2022 to 2023 NYJ 150-1 to 18-1 (+13,200)
- 2021 to 2022 CIN 150-1 to 20-1 (+13,000)
- 1987 to 1988 IND 150-1 to 20-1 (+13,000)
7 teams have moved from 150-1 or longer to 20-1 or shorter in a year-to-year span.
3 made the playoffs, 2 won a playoff game, none have made the Super Bowl and five finished the regular season below .500 ATS.
Fade 'Em
49ers Look To Break Trend
Since 2000, the loser of the Super Bowl has had a tough time getting over its hangover in Week 1 of the following season. Super Bowl losers are 10-14 SU (straight up), and 5-19 ATS (against the spread).
When they are favored by over a field goal — 9-4 SU, 4-9 ATS. In 2020, the 49ers lost at home vs the Cardinals as 6.5-point favorites.
One Hype
Caleb Going For History
As of now, Caleb Williams is 40-1 to win the NFL MVP this year, which would be the shortest odds entering a season for any rookie in the last 15 years to win the award ahead of Saquon Barkley, who was 66-1 in 2018.
There have been 27 No. 1 pick QBs since the merger in 1970. In their first start, they are 4-22-1 SU, 7-20 ATS. David Carr in 2002 was the last SU winner.
Rookie Road
Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels Start Away
Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels will begin their NFL careers in Week 1 having to play on the road against veteran QBs.
Since the NFL merger in 1970, rookie QBs having to play on the road in Week 1 are 8-19 SU and 12-13-2 ATS, losing those games SU by an average of 4.3 PPG. The rookie QB's team averages about 18.8 PPG scored. The last win SU or ATS came from Sam Darnold back in 2018.
Back On Top
Jets AFC East Favorites
The Jets are currently the favorites to win the AFC East at +160 — it would be the first time they enter a year as division favorites since the playoffs expanded in 2002.
The Browns and Commanders are the only two other teams to not be a division favorite any year in that span.
Looking specifically at their opener on Monday Night Football — Aaron Rodgers is 13-6 SU, 11-8 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football. He's won 10 straight MNF games SU as a starter. The last loss was back in 2013 vs. the Bears.
Not to mention, underdogs in Week 1 Monday Night Football games are 29-12-1 ATS since 1998.
Familiar Home Dogs
Fade The Noise
The Colts are slight home underdogs vs. Texans in Week 1. It has been profitable to bet divisional underdogs in Week 1 historically.
Divisional home dogs are 22-7 ATS in Week 1 since 2010, including 9-2 ATS since 2018 and 17-4 ATS since 2012.
Divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS (71%) in Week 1 since 2014, covering the spread by 4.8 PPG (Panthers, Colts, Raiders), including 40-38-2 SU, +$2,580 on $100 bet (+32.2% ROI) since 2010.
Tight Spreads
Bengals, Patriots The Outlier
If this game closes as the only one in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more points, that would be the fewest games in Week 1 with a spread of seven or more since 2010, when we had no such games.
Jim Joins John
Harbaugh's In The NFL
Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL coaching game after winning the National Championship at Michigan and heading to the Chargers. In their NFL careers, both John and Jim Harbaugh have had betting success in the NFL.
NFL careers:
Jim Harbaugh: 49-22-1 SU, 42-27-3 ATS — three of four seasons .500 ATS or better
John Harbaugh: 172-109 SU, 146-127-8 ATS — 12 of 17 seasons .500 ATS or better
The Harbaugh brothers are a combined 16-4 ATS in NFL Week 1s and 53-23-1 SU coaching any NFL game on extended rest (eight days or more). Jim Harbaugh is 4-0 in season openers during his time as head coach of 49ers. The only coach who has more wins in openers without a loss or tie in NFL history is Raymond Berry (5-0).
The Bad List
Panthers Defy Odds
It's pretty hard to do this. The Carolina Panthers have the worst/longest Super Bowl odds of any team entering this season at 250-1. It marks the first time since the 2005-06 San Francisco 49ers that a team "picked" No. 1 in the NFL Draft and had the worst Super Bowl odds the following season.
They've been an underdog in 20 straight games (29 of last 30) — last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT)
Lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite
Every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021
Not favored in any game in 2024 as of now at DraftKings Sportsbook
Last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021
Low, Low, Low
Odds To Win It All
10 of the last 11 Super Bowl champions have been listed at +1200 or shorter to win it all in the preseason. This year, the Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens and Lions would be 12-1 or shorter with the Bills, Bengals, Texans and Eagles just outside that zone as of now.
Not only that, only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots did in 2001 (+2000): 2021 Bengals at +8000 (21 of the last 22 years). The teams 10-1 or shorter to win the AFC are the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Bengals and Texans with the Jets and Dolphins on the outside looking in.
Public Love
A Great 2023 Season
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
Beat Up
Lowest Combined Win Totals
The Falcons, Panthers, Saints and Buccaneers have a combined win total of 30 — the fewest for any division by 3+ wins this year. That gap of 3+ for the lowest division is the biggest since the AFC East in 2018.
 |  |  | |
Favored To Win
Division Odds Gamble
Looking specifically at the Falcons, Eagles and Texans…
25 teams have closed as odds-on below -150, only seven of those 25 teams won the division (18 didn’t).
12 teams have closed as odds-on at -120 or shorter, only four of those 12 teams won the division (eight didn’t).
In 19 of the last 21 seasons (91%), an NFL team has gone worst-to-first in its division.
Last four years: 2023 Texans +1100, 2022 Jaguars +750, 2021 Bengals +2500, 2020 Washington +2200
This year’s candidates: Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Chargers | Commanders, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals.
Over the last 20 years, only three teams have won their division with preseason odds of 20-1 or higher – and two have done it since 2020: Washington (2020) and Cincinnati (2021). The three teams at 20-1 or higher this year are: Giants, Patriots and Broncos
20-1 or Longer – Win Division Last 20 Years
- 2021 Bengals, 25-1
- 2008 Dolphins, 25-1
- 2020 Washington, 22-1
Every NFL Game For Week 1
 |  |   |   |  |   | | |  |   | |  |  | |   |   | |
➤Eight teams in Super Bowl history have gone for three-peat, they are combined 13 games below .500 ATS in that third season and none of the eight teams were 3-1 ATS or better in their teams' first four games that year.
➤Over the past two seasons, teams after playing the Chiefs and Ravens are a combined 47-21 SU, good for the first — (KC) and third — (BAL) best win percentage in that span.
➤Lamar Jackson returned to his first half ways in 2023. Here is his career first half against the spread:
- 2023: 13-5 1H ATS
- 2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
- 2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
Overall, Jackson is 51-30-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 257 QBs. No. 2 on the list? Joe Flacco. Jackson still tends to cover 1H early in the season. He's 13-6-1 1H ATS in the first four games of the season, including 4-1 in Week 1 and 8-2 in the first two weeks.
➤Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a dog, but 15-20 ATS as a favorite, including 7-17 ATS when favored by more than three points.
➤Mahomes is 15-4 SU and 11-8 ATS in September – 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in openers (over is 5-1 in Mahomes Week 1 openers, going over by 7.2 PPG). As Chiefs head coach, Andy Reid is 7-4 ATS and 9-2 SU in season openers.
➤The Chiefs are going for the illustrious three-peat this year after winning back-to-back titles. How have teams performed after going back-to-back when they have the same coach/QB as the seasons prior? The five teams went 54-22 SU, but just 30-46 ATS.
- 2005-06 Patriots
- 1990-91 49ers
- 1980-81 Steelers
- 1976-77 Steelers
- 1974-75 Dolphins
➤Since Tyreek Hill moved on to Miami, Mahomes has six pass TDs and six INTs when throwing 20+ yards downfield, compared to 52 TDs and 15 INTs with him from 2018-21.
➤The Chiefs own the NFL's longest ATS win streak entering the regular season at six games, with the Raiders in second at four games. Mahomes himself has an ATS streak of five games, which is also the highest of any QB entering this year.
➤Andy Reid win total results with the Chiefs and Eagles: 9-2 over with K.C. and 9-4-1 over with Philly (18-6-1 overall to over).
➤Chiefs are coming off a Super Bowl victory over the 49ers …
- Week 1 Thursday night opener: Home teams have been 12-8-3 ATS since 2000.
- Beginning in 2004, the reigning Super Bowl champions have kicked off the NFL regular season by hosting 19 weekday primetime games. In those games, they're 10-7-2 ATS.
- The Super Bowl champs are 14-9-1 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.
➤Chiefs have won the AFC West for eight consecutive years – it's the longest active division streak across the four major sports. The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots, with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
➤The NFL plays in Sao Paulo, Brazil on September 6th with the Green Bay Packers facing the Philadelphia Eagles, with the Packers as slight underdogs. Since getting the job in 2019, Packers coach Matt LaFleur is 53-37 ATS over five seasons. He's the second-most profitable coach ATS, behind just Dan Campbell of the Lions.
➤LaFleur's Packers have been underdogs 32 times. He has covered 22 of those 32, by an average of over four points a game. In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 13-2 ATS — not bad.
➤Entering this season, the Eagles have lost seven consecutive games ATS, the longest ATS losing streak in the entire NFL — with Jalen Hurts losing his last seven starts ATS as well, tied for the longest streak for any active QB in the NFL with Daniel Jones.
➤In his career, Jalen Hurts is 6-14-1 ATS as a favorite away from home. In the last 20 years, he's the fourth-least profitable QB as a favorite away from home. Hurts has lost three straight starts SU as a favorite away from home, including four of his last five.
Jalen Hurts' Career
- Home: 17-9-1 ATS (third-best of 99 QBs since 2020).
- Road/Neutral: 10-18-1 ATS (worst of 104 QBs since 2020).
Click here to return to the table of contents.
“It’s hard to win in Miami early in the season … Teams struggle in Miami when the temperatures are high.”
➤Since 2005, Dolphins are 13-19 SU at home in Weeks 1-4 — Tua Tagovailoa is 3-1 SU in that spot, Mike McDaniel is 3-0 SU.
➤When the game temperature is 80 degrees or higher, the Dolphins are 48-42 SU last 20 yrs, but 29-14 SU in that spot since 2016-17. Tua is 15-3 SU in that spot and McDaniel is 9-1 SU.
➤Also the “1P ET Dolphins home kick theory” – it worked lately, 42-23 SU last decade. Outside that window, just 8-7 SU.
➤Betting the Jaguars win total over? Good luck. Since 2000, Jacksonville is 6-18 to their win total over. They haven’t gone over a win total of more than 7 since 2007. No Jaguars coach is over .500 in their win total record since their first coach, Tom Coughlin.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 8-17 SU and 11-14 ATS on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $819 on the road in his career. Of the 93 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the road.
➤Lawrence is 23-29 ATS in his career. He's 18-17 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
➤Tua Tagovailoa is 29-22-1 ATS in his career (18-8 ATS at home; 11-14-1 ATS road/neutral). Tagovailoa is 26-13-1 ATS in EST | 3-7 ATS in all other time zones.
➤Miami hasn’t finished a season below .500 ATS at home since 2015. They are 39-23-3 ATS since 2016 at home. The Dolphins are the best home team ATS in that span, with the Packers coming in second.
➤The Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000 – the longest drought without a playoff win in the NFL and 3rd-longest in the four major U.S. sports.
MLB/NFL/NBA/NHL – Longest Droughts Without Winning Playoff Round
- Reds (1995)
- Dolphins (2000-01)
- Hornets (2001-02)
- Raiders (2002-03)
➤The Steelers have gone over their preseason win total in four straight seasons, the longest streak to the under in the NFL.
➤Steelers are Week 1 dogs at the Falcons. Steelers are 59-35-4 ATS (63%) as an underdog under Tomlin, making a $100 bettor $2,138, making him the most profitable coach as a dog in the last 20 years. Steelers haven’t finished a season below .500 ATS as an underdog since 2016 and it's only happened twice under Tomlin.
➤The Steelers are 20-14-1 ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the fourth-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions, Giants and Bengals.
➤Russell Wilson gets the nod to start Week 1 for the Steelers on the road in Atlanta. Wilson is 12-18 ATS on the road since 2020, which is the second-worst of 103 QBs, ahead of just Jalen Hurts.
➤Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.
Best SU W-L Mark in One-Score Games Since 2007
1. PIT 98-61-2 (.615)
2. IND 88-60-1 (.594)
3. NE 69-50 (.580)
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
➤Kirk Cousins makes his first career start for the Falcons in Week 1. He is 11-19 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 99 QBs in that span. Cousins hasn't covered a game as a home favorite since 2022.
Cousins has also had his issues on Monday Night Football. This year, Atlanta is slated to play on Monday night against the Chargers in Week 7. In his career, Cousins is 3-10 SU and ATS on Monday Night Football.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤In NFL history, seven teams have allowed 70+ sacks. Giants did so last year, second-most all-time. Here is how those O-Lines performed the year after the historically bad season. Four of six allowed 50+ sacks again, with all six teams allowing 35+ the next year.
Most Sacks Allowed by Team — Sacks Allowed Next Season
- 104 – 1986 Eagles –> 72
- 85 – 2023 Giants –> ???
- 78 – 1997 Cardinals –> 50
- 76 – 2002 Texans –> 36
- 72 – 2006 Raiders –> 41
- 72 – 1987 Eagles –> 56
- 71 – 2014 Jaguars –> 51
➤Since 2020, Giants home games have gone under the full game total at an alarming rate. They are 24-8-1 to the under, going under by 5.2 PPG. Of those 33 games, Daniel Jones is 17-6-1 to the under in his home starts.
➤The Giants went over their win total back in 2022 after going under their win total last season. Since 2011, New York is 2-10-1 to their win total over — the Giants haven’t gone over their win total in consecutive seasons since 2007-08.
➤Brian Daboll is 22-13-1 ATS (63%) in his coaching career with the Giants — his 63% ATS win pct is the highest among all head coaches over the last 20 years with a minimum of 10 games. Daboll has had four different QBs start a game for the Giants and all four are above .500 ATS with the team.
➤Sam Darnold is 22-33-1 ATS in his NFL career. He's the fourth-least profitable QB ATS since drafted in 2018: Ryan, Carr, Wentz, Darnold
He’s 21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU. He’s even 7-14 SU vs. teams below .500 SU.
Since 2000, 91 QBs have had 1,500 pass attempts — here is where Darnold ranks:
- Comp%: 66th
- Y/A: 72nd
- Sack%: 75th
- TD%: 77th
- Pass Rtg: 77th
- Pass success rate: 80th
➤The Dennis Allen coaching era has been a money-making machine for bettors. His teams are 5-0 to their preseason win total under and his record overall has left a lot to be desired.
Dennis Allen win total results as head coach
- 2-0 under w/ Saints (2022-23)
- 3-0 under w/ Raiders (2012-14)
➤In his coaching career, Allen is 24-46 SU (34.3%) – worst among all active head coaches. In just five years and 70 games of coaching, Allen is 22 games below .500 SU – here is a list of coaches since 2002 realignment to have 70 games or less under their belt and be 22 games below .500 or more:
- Dennis Allen
- Pat Shurmur
- Hue Jackson
- Steve Spagnuolo
- Gus Bradley
➤In terms of the Saints, they haven’t made the playoffs in three straight seasons – a miss this year would be their longest stretch since 2001-05. NO has made the playoffs 14 times in franchise history, nine of those came under Sean Payton and they’ve advanced past the Wild Card round eight times — seven of which came under Payton.
➤One big thing for the Saints will be Derek Carr’s ability to win and cover as a favorite – when they should win. Carr is .500 ATS or worse as a favorite in seven straight seasons (since 2017), where he is 48-62-3 ATS. Since Carr’s first season in the NFL in 2014, he’s ranked 165th of 166 QBs ATS as a favorite (74-83-3 ATS), ahead of only Matt Ryan.
➤Last year, the Panthers averaged just 4.11 yards per offensive play. That was not only the worst mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team since the Bengals back in 2008. Not only that, but their 4.11 Y/OP was the third-lowest for any time since 1990 with at least 1,000 offensive plays run that season.
➤The Panthers didn't snap the ball while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game last season – the first team to do so in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Dating back to last season, Carolina hasn’t snapped the ball in the fourth quarter with a lead since Week 17 last year – 18 games ago.
➤The Panthers were also shut out in their final two games of the year, the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shut out in back-to-back games (08 CLE also was shut out in their final two games of the season).
➤How bad was Bryce Young last year? Only three QBs in NFL history have had 11 pass TDs or less, 10 INTs or more, less than 60% completion pct with 50+ sacks:
- 2023 Bryce Young
- 2014 Blake Bortles -> 5-11 SU the next season
- 2002 David Carr -> 3-8 SU the next season
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Patriots are the biggest underdogs in Week 1. Underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 46-27 ATS in Week 1 since 2006 (18 seasons) – they are under .500 ATS in just one of those 18 seasons.
➤Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 35 times in four seasons (13-21-1 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
The Patriots spent 18 years with preseason odds of 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl (15-of-18 below 10-1). They've had odds of 300-1, 66-1, 40-1, 40-1 and 30-1 the last five years.
➤This is the fourth time since 2004 that the Patriots are underdogs in Week 1 and the third consecutive year. The last time the Patriots were dogs in Week 1 in three straight seasons came back in 1998 to 2000.
Biggest Week 1 dog since 2000:
- +9 – 2016 at ARI (W, 23-21)
- +8.5 – 2024 at CIN
- +3.5 – 2023 vs. PHI (L, 25-20)
- +3 – 2022 at MIA (L, 20-7)
- +3 – 2000 vs. TB (L, 21-16)
➤In Joe Burrow’s NFL career, he is 36-22-1 ATS (62.1%), but Burrow has had his ATS struggles early in the season. He’s 2-6 ATS in his first two games of the year, and 34-16-1 ATS in game three or later. That 2-6 ATS mark is tied with Kirk Cousins for the worst mark of 59 QBs since Burrow was drafted.
- Burrow is 8-11 SU vs. AFC North and 26-13-1 SU vs. all other divisions.
- Burrow is 1-5 SU vs. Browns compared to 33-19-1 SU vs. all other teams.
➤We haven't had a double-digit favorite in Week 1 since Eagles vs. Commanders in 2019. The closest right now is the Bengals vs. Patriots. The five-year run without a double-digit favorite in Week 1 is the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger.
If it does get there, double-digit favorites in Week 1 are 25-5 SU in the Wild Card era, with the biggest upset going to the Texans against the Dolphins as 14-point underdogs in 2003.
➤Jacoby Brissett is 31-17 1H ATS in his career. Of 257 QBs in the last 20 years, he's the 3rd-most profitable QB 1H ATS behind just Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson.
➤The Bears are 1-9-1 to their win total over since 2013 (went over 7.5 in 2018 with 12 wins).
➤Caleb Williams will be the 6th rookie QB to start in Week 1 with a point spread of -3 or higher since the merger, with those QBs just 1-4 SU and ATS in those games.
Rookie, Start Week 1, -3 or higher
- Mac Jones -3.5, 2021 == L 17-16 vs MIA
- Trevor Lawrence, -4.5, 2021 == L 37-21 at HOU
- Carson Wentz, -3.5, 2016 == W 29-10 vs CLE
- Jameis Winston, -3, 2015 == L 42-14 vs TEN
- Terry Bradshaw, -5, 1970 == L 19-7, vs HOU
➤Caleb Williams will be the 19th first overall pick to start at QB in Week 1 of his draft year (since the merger). The previous 18 QBs went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS in that Week 1 game.
➤The Bears haven't been favorites by four points or more in their opener since 2014 when they were laying seven against the Bills and lost outright.
➤The Bears have lost 17 consecutive games SU when trailing entering the fourth quarter. Their last win came on September 11, 2022, against Trey Lance and the 49ers.
➤The Titans have gone under their preseason win total in back-to-back seasons which in part led to the coaching change. Overall, the Titans haven't gone under their win total in three straight seasons in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
➤Will Levis accumulated over 300 total plays at QB last season (313). Of the 32 QBs to have at least 300 plays last year, Levis ranked 24th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, 32nd in completion percentage… and first in air yards at over 10.7 per attempt.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Who did the public bet on last year in the NFL? Here are the most games by team with the majority ticket count (51%+ of tickets) last year. The Bills were the only ones of nine teams with 11+ games to be under .500 ATS.
- Bills: 18: (8-10 ATS)
- 49ers: 16 (8-8 ATS)
- Rams: 13 (7-5-1 ATS)
- Chiefs: 13: 7-5-1 ATS)
- Ravens: 13 (7-6 ATS)
- Lions: 12 (10-2 ATS)
- Cowboys: 12 (7-5 ATS)
- Dolphins: 11 (8-3 ATS)
- Bengals: 11 (6-4-1 ATS)
➤For comparison, over the last three seasons, Josh Allen (20-19-3 ATS) and Patrick Mahomes (19-22-1 ATS) are tied atop the list of most QB starts with the majority ticket count with 42.
➤Josh Allen has closed as a favorite of over four points twenty-five times over the last two full seasons and the Bills are 8-16-1 ATS in those games. Of the 42 QBs to close over four points in any game in that span, Allen's 8-16-1 ATS mark is the worst.
➤Kyler Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 25-15-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind only Jared Goff.
➤When the Cardinals are bigger underdogs with Kyler they've seen even more success. They are 11-5-2 ATS as a dog of over 4 pts and 7-3-2 ATS as a dog of six or more.
➤Kyler has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST, he is 11-3 ATS, including 16-6 ATS playing in either EST or CST — covering the spread by over six points per game — and only 18-24-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
➤The Cardinals won just four games SU last year in Jonathan Gannon's first year in Arizona, which was followed up by also winning just four games SU in Kliff Kingsbury's last year. Arizona last won four games or less in back-to-back seasons in 1991-92 and hasn't won four games or fewer in three straight years since 1971-73.
➤Since 2008, the Colts are 2-13-1 straight up and 1-14-1 ATS in Week 1 – including 0-6 ATS vs. AFC South opponents. Since 2003, the Colts are 5-14-2 ATS in their season opener, the least profitable team ATS in the NFL. The Colts haven't won a Week 1 game SU since Andrew Luck in 2013.
This year, the Colts are facing the Texans in Week 1. Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning are the only two Colts QBs to win or cover a Week 1 game in the past 20 years. FWIW: The Colts are 6-1 ATS in Week 2 in the last seven years.
Colts QB in Week 1 – SU/ATS Result by Year
- 2023: Anthony Richardson – L/L
- 2022: Matt Ryan – P/L
- 2021: Carson Wentz – L/L
- 2020: Philip Rivers – L/L
- 2019: Jacoby Brissett – L/P
- 2018: Andrew Luck – L/L
- 2017: Scott Tolzien – L/L
➤Between Weeks 1 and 4 last season where Anthony Richardson started three games, he averaged 23.1 fantasy pts per game in STD, that mark was the 3rd-highest of any QB behind just Justin Herbert and Josh Allen.
This will be Richardson's 5th career start facing Texans in Week 1. He has yet to close as a favorite in his NFL career.
➤CJ Stroud has made 17 starts in his NFL career and he is 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-5 ATS as a favorite.
➤In 2023, Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons for a QB all-time. He's just the third rookie QB to have 20+ pass TD, 5 INT or fewer and 63%+ completion with 2016 Dak Prescott and 2012 Robert Griffin III. Dak had a nice second season with 22 pass TDs and 13 INTs, keeping his completion pct about even. RGIII on the other hand went 3-10 SU and had 16 pass TD to 12 INT in his second season.
➤The Texans are favored to win their opening game of the season for the first time since 2017 — which was a 29-7 loss to a divisional team in the Jaguars and Houston hasn't opened the season as a road favorite since 2013 against the Chargers.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Antonio Pierce took over for the fired Josh McDaniels in Week 9 last year and ended up going 7-1-1 ATS in his nine games – the best ATS record of any coach in the NFL during that span.
Best ATS W-L, Week 9 on in 2023-24
- Pierce 7-1-1 ATS
- Bowles 7-3 ATS
- Stefanski 7-3 ATS
➤New Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has followed his role as an underdog and favorite. Minshew is 9-4 SU in his career when listed as a betting favorite and 6-18 SU as an underdog. Minshew is 1-14 SU in his last 15 starts as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2020 season.
➤Justin Herbert has made 63 career starts in the NFL. He is 30-33 SU, 32-30-1 ATS.
When his defense allows 24 pts or fewer, he is 24-8 SU, 23-8-1 ATS.
When his defense allows more than 24 pts, he is 6-25 SU, 9-22 ATS.
When the game is played in EST or CST, Herbert is 15-8 ATS
When the game is played in MST or PST, Herbert is 17-22-1 ATS
➤Over the last two seasons, the under is 20-10 in Herbert’s 30 regular season starts – the second most profitable QB to the under in that span behind only Kenny Pickett (18-6).
➤Herbert is 18-40-5 (31%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the last 20 seasons, he’s 256th of 257 QBs in 2H ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford. Herbert is 8-26-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$1,864 — worst in NFL since he was drafted).
Herbert 2H ATS Career
- 2023: 3-9-1 ATS
- 2022: 6-10-2 ATS
- 2021: 5-12 ATS
- 2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤The Chargers have gone under their preseason win total in five straight seasons, the longest streak to the under in the NFL.
➤The Chargers were 3-6 ATS at home last season and have been a bad home bet for some time now. They are 30-48-2 ATS at home over the last decade, the worst ATS mark in the NFL.
➤The Broncos have gone under their win total in four straight years, but are 0-7-1 to their win total over since 2016. They last went over in 2015 when they won the Super Bowl with Peyton Manning.
➤In Sean Payton's 17 seasons as a head coach he's never finished back-to-back years under .500 ATS. Denver went 6-10-1 ATS last year breaking a seven-year over .500 ATS streak for Payton's teams.
➤Last year, the Seahawks lost at home in Week 1 to the Rams, 30-13. Before that loss, the Seahawks had gone 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS when opening the season at home, dating back to 2000. Seattle is 30-6 SU at home in their first three games of the regular season over the last 20 years.
➤The Seahawks haven't lost their home opener SU in consecutive seasons since 2001-02.
➤Geno Smith is 10-15-1 ATS as a favorite in his career and 22-17-2 ATS as an underdog. Of Geno's 10 career covers as a favorite, only two came when the opponent scored more than 20 points. As a favorite of over four points, Geno is 2-7 ATS in his career.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤Baker Mayfield is 14-26-1 (35%) ATS as a favorite since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $1,264. Since he was drafted back in 2018, Mayfield is the third-least profitable QB ATS of 94 QBs, ahead of only Derek Carr and Russell Wilson. Mayfield has never finished a season above .500 ATS as a favorite.
➤Mayfield is 1-4 SU in openers as an NFL starter, winning his career NFL opener last season with the Bucs. Of the 11 total QBs to start all five Week 1's since 2019, Mayfield is the only one with four-plus SU losses.
➤Over the last two seasons, the under is 19-10 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $733 taking the under in this spot, second-best of 89 QBs behind just Kenny Pickett.
➤Washington will start their eighth different Week 1 starting QB this season, which will set the record for most consecutive years with a unique Week 1 starting QB.
- 2024 – Jayden Daniels
- 2023 – Sam Howell
- 2022 – Ryan Fitzpatrick
- 2021 – Dwayne Haskins
- 2020 – Case Keenum
- 2019 – Alex Smith
- 2018 – Kirk Cousins
➤Hopefully for Washington, Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels can break the franchise's bad stretch as underdogs. Entering 2024, Washington has lost seven consecutive games straight up as dogs, including going 3-10 SU in the spot last season. Since 2019, they have ranked 28th in the NFL in moneyline profitability as dogs.
➤Dallas became the 28th team in NFL history to score 500 points in a season and the sixth team to score 500+ points but not win a playoff game, with the 2021 Cowboys, 2019 Ravens, 2011 Packers, 2010 Patriots and 2000 Rams.
Here is how those six teams performed the year after. All six won a playoff game, with two making (and losing) the Super Bowl.
- 2021 DAL -> 2022: 12-5, 467 pts, W WC, L Div
- 2019 BAL -> 2020: 11-5, 468 pts, W WC, L Div
- 2011 GB -> 2012: 11-5, 433 pts, W WC, L Div
- 2010 NE -> 2011: 13-3, 511 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
- 2000 STL -> 2001: 14-2, 503 pts, W Div, CC, L SB
➤Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,641) | 36-43-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$913). Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first). Against teams outside the NFC East, Dak has lost five consecutive games ATS entering this season and since he was drafted, he's the third-least profitable QB in this spot of 138 QBs, ahead of just Brock Osweiler and Derek Carr.
➤Dak and the Cowboys have lost 7 consecutive games ATS when listed as an underdog dating back to 2021. Their last win came against Justin Herbert and the Chargers in September of 2021.
➤New era in Cleveland? The Browns won their opener last year … and the year before. They are now 2-16-1 SU in Week 1 since 2005, and 3-22-1 SU in openers since 1995. Before 2022 and 2023, the Browns hadn't won back-to-back openers since 1994-95, with their last three-year win streak coming in 1988-90.
➤Deshaun Watson is 33-33-2 ATS in his career and 14-19-2 ATS as a favorite, which he will be in Week 1 vs. Cowboys. Watson is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in Week 1 and 3-6 SU and ATS over the first two weeks.
➤Browns are 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. Stefanski is 25-19-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
➤The Browns have odds of +4000 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to playoff results. Browns have had odds of 40-1 or shorter entering the regular season eleven times in the WC era and they've never won a playoff game that same season with a combined record of 72-107 SU.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL. By most standards, but for this concept it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
➤Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
➤The Lions are 35-16 ATS (68.6%) in regular season last 3 years — best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE.
- 2003-05 NE 71.1%
- 2004-06 LAC 68.9%
- 2016-18 NE 68.8%
- 2015-17 MIN 68.8%
- 1994-96 CAR 68.8%
- 2021-23 DET 68.6%
- 2011-13 SF 68.1%
➤We know the Lions are aggressive, but under Dan Campbell, they’ve been very aggressive.
Since 2021
- 118 4th down attempts – most in NFL
- 62 4th down conversions – most in NFL
- 12 2-pt conversions made– most in NFL
- 10 fake punts – most in NFL
➤Amon Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery became the first quartet of players to have 850+ scrimmage yards and 10+ touchdowns last season.
➤ The Lions' defense is the one that needs to step up for Detroit to be dominant. In the last 40 years, Detroit has finished top-10 on defense in points and/or yards just six times in 80 attempts.
➤The Lions beat the Chiefs 21-20 in their opener last year, going under the total, which broke a 12-year streak of overs in Detroit openers. They're 15-2 to the over since 2007 now.
➤The Lions' win total is 10.5 this year. They were the only NFL team without a double-digit win total in the Wild Card era (since 1990) entering 2024.
➤The Rams are 5-2 to their win total over under Sean McVay, including 3-0 when the win total is under 10 (8.5 this year).
➤Who is the most profitable QB against the spread in Week 1 over the past 20 years? The answer: Jared Goff, who is 7-0 ATS in his opener (4-0 SU/ATS with the Rams and 1-2 SU, 3-0 ATS with the Lions).
➤Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 6-1 SU/ATS in Week 1 and have covered by 9 PPG.
McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 4-10 SU as underdogs.
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor
Indoor: 35-17 ATS (25-9 ATS last three seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
Road games in 2024: ARI, DAL, MIN, GB, HOU, IND, CHI, SF
➤December 12th, 2021 — any guesses what this date represents? It will be over 1,000 days before the 2024 MNF opener…
Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears).
Since that 300-yard game: he's 12-11 SU, 10-13 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
Since the start of 2022, Rodgers has had the same pass success rate as Desmond Ridder, with the same number of interceptions in just 40 more attempts. His EPA per play figure is surrounded by Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield in the rankings.
➤Nathaniel Hackett enters his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. In those previous ten seasons, his teams were 93-78 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
- '23 NYJ: 7-10
- '22 DEN: 6-11
- '19-'21 GB: 27-27
- '16-'18 JAC: 25-26
- '13-'14 BUF: 13-19
➤The Jets schedule won’t do them any favors. In the first 11 weeks, the Jets will play six-night games and a game in London without a bye week. No other team plays more than four-night games in the first 11 weeks – in fact, in the last 20 years, the Jets’ six-night games within the first 11 weeks is the most of any team in the NFL.
➤Rodgers is just 3-13 SU as a dog of more than four points in his career.
Rodgers biggest Week 1 lines:
- +5.5 — 2024 at SF
- +5 — 2013 at SF (L, 34-28)
- +4.5 — 2014 at SEA (L, 36-16)
➤Since Rodgers got his first start for the Packers in 2008, he has been the most profitable starting quarterback ATS in the regular season and playoffs combined – going 140-100-5 (58.3%) ATS. Since 2020, Rodgers is 10-3 ATS as an underdog, covering the spread by 4.4 PPG.
➤The Bengals and Jets are in for a doozy this year. Since 2000, no team has had to play on a Thursday after back-to-back road games, with one of those two road games being a game played on a Monday.
In 2000, the Buccaneers had to do this, facing the Lions at home on Thursday, but they had a bye week before the game – not so much with Cincinnati and New York.
Jets: Week 1 at SF (MNF), Week 2 at TEN, Week 3 vs. NE (TNF)
Bengals: Week 14 at DAL (MNF), Week 15 at TEN, Week 16 vs. CLE (TNF)
➤The 49ers have lost seven consecutive home games against the spread entering the 2024 season with San Francisco losing three of the seven games at home as a favorite outright.
Before that seven-game ATS losing streak, the 49ers had won ten straight games ATS at home. The 49ers haven't lost seven consecutive home games ATS since their 10-game ATS home losing streak during the 1982-83 regular season.
➤In games Christian McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
➤No Trent Williams potentially for 49ers in Week 1 vs. Jets. Keep this simple: SF has lost five consecutive games SU where either Williams either hasn’t played or played fewer than 50% of offensive snaps.
SF pts scored: 20, 19, 17, 17, 14
SF is 21-2 SU in the games Williams has played over 50% offensive snaps during that five-game losing streak without him.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
NFL Betting Systems
System: Week 1 games that see the total drop at least a full point between the opening and closing lines tend to even stay under that lower closing total. They are 88-66-1 (57%) in the under last 20 years, including 18-5 last three years. If you include games 1 and 2 of the season, still 56% to the under last 20 years.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: The public tends to overrate favorites and home-field advantage, no matter what time of year it is. And early in the season, the public also tends to overrate what happened the year prior.
Road underdogs in Week 1 are 113-96-8 ATS over the past 20 years. If you split those road dogs by whether that team made the playoffs the year prior, you see a drastic change:
➤Made playoffs year before: 23-37-3 ATS
➤Missed playoffs year before: 90-59-5 ATS
Matches: TEN, CAR, WAS, DEN, JAC, LV, NE, ARI, NYJ
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: Last three years, NFL unders have been going crazy – 54.7% with +4.6% ROI. A $100 bettor would be up almost 4k (20+ games over .500 all three seasons). When both teams are on eight-plus days rest each, the under is 108-55-1 (66%) since 2018. Under is .500 or better in 11 of 13 years. That’s without Week 1s. Don’t worry though, Week 1 unders are 32-17 (65%) in that span.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Primetime unders have been the calling the last few seasons. Since 2019, they are hitting at 59.5% by a point and a half per game, including 79-48 the last two seasons.
Matches: BAL/KC, GB/PHI, LAR/DET, NYJ/SF
Click here to return to the table of contents.
System: Bet dogs with low totals — especially early in the season. Last year they were 26-12-2 ATS and have been above .500 ATS in six straight seasons.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Unders and wind have historically been a perfect marriage. In the NFL, unders are hitting at a 57.3% clip in "high wind" games based on the strength at kickoff. These such games went 30-11-2 to the under last season and 79-33-2 (70.5%) the last two seasons.
Matches: Check current weather.
Click here to return to the table of contents.
