NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 1: 13 Sunday Afternoon Games Covered

Week 1 NFL Odds & Picks

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Eagles

vs.

Lions

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Kody Malstrom: This Lions team simply has a glaring issue on defense. It leads me to take a different betting approach, one that may be a common theme throughout this season. Full game overs.

As previously stated, this offense has drastically improved with playmakers all over and an elite offensive line. Is it enough to take down the most talented roster in football? Most likely not. But it is talented enough to do their part in getting our over ticket to the window.

With one of the worst defenses in football, the Eagles should have no issue moving the ball. Second overall draft pick Aidan Hutchinson can't improve a unit that finished 29th in Defensive DVOA alone.

For now, expect Lions games to be shootouts with a defense that can make anyone look elite and an offensive to keep pace, especially after showing time and time again they will play to the final second under Dan Campbell.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Over 48 | Bet to 49

Saints

vs.

Falcons

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Landon Silinsky: The Falcons allowed the fourth-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers in the league last season and also gave up the seventh most touchdowns to the position. That is bad news for Atlanta since New Orleans will likely lean pass-heavy on offense with Winston back healthy.

Not only does Atlanta have to deal with the trio of Saints receivers, but we haven't even discussed pro-bowl running back Alvin Kamara, who is one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL.

In addition to being woeful against receivers last year, Atlanta also gave up the ninth most rushing touchdowns, ninth most running back receptions and 12th most running back receiving yards.

The Falcons are at a severe disadvantage at every level and should get dominated in this game. I will lay the points on the road here.

Pick: Saints -5.5 | Bet to -6

Ravens

vs.

Jets

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Blake Krass: Jackson will have a chip on his shoulder all season, and against an inexperienced Jets defense, he should come out of the gates on fire. I think New York's defense will improve as the season goes on, but Jackson's dual-threat abilities pose a real threat against them.

For the Jets' offense, the offensive line is a major question mark, which could spell trouble for Flacco. With Peters and Humphrey back together in the Ravens' secondary, Flacco may struggle to find open receivers in the limited time he will be given.

The Ravens took their foot off the gas late last season, but head coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to play. With so many injuries, young players and an unexpected starting QB, the Jets could take some time to gel. I think that gives the Ravens a major edge to take a lead of a touchdown or more into halftime.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Ravens 1H -3.5 | Bet to -5.5

Bengals

vs.

Steelers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Phillip Kall:The Bengals were surrounded by question marks entering last season and their gameplans reflected that. Once Zac Taylor saw what his offense could do, he pushed the envelope with it more and more.

Now, Taylor has had a whole offseason to make adjustments and put together a game plan around his offense’s strengths. Their offseason moves fixed what was their only weakness offensively. They now have the potential to break into the conversation of the best offense in the NFL. I expect them to try and assert their presence early in this game and prove that what they did last season was not a fluke.

This means the Steelers will either have to score to keep up or have opportunities in garbage late in the game. Either way, they have the weapons to be productive offensively and take advantage of those situations. With three threats on the outside, one is guaranteed to be matched up against Eli Apple — a matchup any of the Steelers trio should be able to win consistently. 

When looking at the totals across all games, this was one that stood out. Other teams with high-powered offenses all have totals for their games of at least 46, but here the Bengals sit with just a total marked at 44.5. 

Cincinnati’s defense may not live up to the level it set last year. However, their offense will prove it belongs in the conversation with the Bills and Chiefs for the best offense in the NFL.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Over 44.5 | Bet to 45.5

Patriots

vs.

Dolphins

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

John LanFranca:While this line opened at Dolphins -2.5 — and it’s never fun to play a game that has crossed the biggest key number in NFL handicapping — the books have responded after seeing big money come in on Miami. 

Everyone can see the writing on the wall in this divisional matchup: The Dolphins will make a statement against a team in transitional turmoil.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Dolphins -3.5 | Bet to -4

Jaguars

vs.

Commanders

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: Your perception of this line is heavily tied into how highly you rate the two quarterbacks relative to the market. Lawrence had a terrible rookie season in a bad situation, but I'm of the belief there's a reason he was scouted so favorably and that plenty of quarterbacks went from bad rookie campaigns to have solid NFL careers. Now with a better coach and more stable environment, Lawrence could flourish.

This will be a much more difficult environment for Wentz to thrive in. His accuracy issues have persisted throughout camp.

This game is a classic example of why getting the best of the number is so important in a market as efficient as the NFL. If you liked Jacksonville, there were 3.5s available early in the week and a few available in the market as of writing on Saturday.

If you like Washington, you had plenty of opportunities to snag a -3 on the Commanders. Given that the Commanders will win this game by exactly three points about 10% of the time, that's a massive value add to your wager.

I'm not much of a trends person in general, but road underdogs who failed to make the playoffs the year prior are 73-46-1 against the spread in week 1. It's a classic example of the market overreacting to a poor season the year prior.

I'd bet Jacksonville, but only at +3 or better. Anything less than that is no longer worth a bet.

FanDuel QuickSlip: Jacksonville +3 | Bet to +3

49ers

vs.

Bears

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sam Farley: The beginning of the Lance era is particularly exciting if you hold any Aiyuk shares in fantasy. Lance is a significant upgrade on Garoppolo when it comes to the deep ball, thanks to his superior arm strength and accuracy.

Last season, we saw Lance throw for an average of 10.5 Air Yards per attempt, in comparison with Garoppolo's 7.4. Lance also has a higher percentage of passing attempts over 20 or more yards and a higher completion percentage.

All of that is great news for Aiyuk, who has the ability to thrive in those situations. His downfield speed and quick feet should mean he can exploit matchups against the Bears secondary and take advantage of Lance's arm.

Aiyuk should smash his line for receiving yards in Week 1 at 49.5, and there's value on his receiving yards total up to 59.5 yards.

FanDuel Quickslip: Brandon Aiyuk Over 49.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 59.5 yards

Browns

vs.

Panthers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Cody Goggin:The line on this game is pretty much a pick'em, so this shouldn’t be a game script where the Panthers are trailing and having to throw to catch up in most situations.

The more likely scenario is that they are in either a neutral game script or a positive game script for most of the day, which would favor McCaffrey.

Over the last two years, in games that McCaffrey has started and finished, he has averaged almost 71 yards per game and 16.77 attempts per game. If his workload on the ground either stays the same or increases against this poor Browns run defense, McCaffrey could be in for a big day on the ground.

Pick: Christian McCaffrey — Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) | Bet to 74.5

Colts

vs.

Texans

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Sam Farley: Backing the Colts against the spread feels like the smartest bet here. It's the biggest spread on the board Sunday, though, and the Texans turned up defensively enough times last season that it's probably wise to wait and see how they look this season. We'll go elsewhere for our bet.

The big buzz in Houston is around rookie running back Dameon Pierce. The former Florida RB flew up fantasy draft boards after receiving glowing reports from training camp and thriving in the preseason.

I'm a card-carrying member of the Pierce Fan Club. We saw what he was capable of in preseason as he averaged 6.2 and 9.8 yards per carry in each of his two appearances. He was so good that the team cut Marlon Mack and named Pierce the starter ahead of Rex Burkhead and Dare Ogunbowale. The coaching staff really trusts this guy.

Although the Texans will likely be playing from behind, I'm expecting Pierce to get enough carries to easily surpass his rushing line of 48.5.

FanDuel Quickslip: Dameon Pierce — Over 48.5 Rushing Yards | Bet to 54.5

Raiders

vs.

Chargers

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Great Foosini: Let's look at the line functionality of this game. Last year, the Chargers were three-point favorites home and away, winning by 14 at home and losing by three in overtime on the road.

Why didn't the line change in those scenarios? Well, because the Chargers (and Rams) don't have a home-field advantage. This will effectively be a home game for the Raiders.

Week 1 of the NFL season is a difficult wagering week given the lack of data, but we do have some line information and general logic to apply here that makes taking the underdog a favorable bet.

Books last year viewed the Chargers as three points better than the Raiders, give or take a point or two for home field. Both teams got better in the offseason and even if we assume the changes are a wash (I personally think the Raiders improved more than the Chargers), we are getting a half point of value on the line here.

There isn't a reason to think the Chargers increased their against-the-spread value by half a point, outside of the assumption that the offense will take a leap in Herbert's third year. However, we don't have data to support that just yet.

We know both teams improved and the Raiders' changes should help them keep up with any jumps the Chargers take this year. I have this as a field goal game, so give me the hook on the Raiders.

FanDuel Quickslip: Raiders +3.5 | Bet to 3.5

Packers

vs.

Vikings

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: It seemed as though the entire discourse surrounding Green Bay last year was about injuries. However, the Packers were actually above average in overall health last season and it was Minnesota that finished in the bottom third in adjusted games lost to injury, per Football Outsiders.

With home field dwindling to less and less with each passing season and it being worth even less in divisional games, you have to think Minnesota and Green Bay are within two points of one another to bet Minnesota here.

There's also this clear trend that likes the Vikings: Divisional dogs are profitable almost all season long, but especially in Week 1. Since 2005, divisional dogs have gone 58-36-2 against the spread (61.7%), covering by an average of nearly two points per game.

Minnesota had the better defense by early down success rates and EPA/play and although it's a reach to say they'll be better offensively, a fully healthy Vikings' offense can be just as good as a Packers' offense without Adams and Lazard.

I'd bet Minnesota at +1 or better.

FanDuel Quickslip: Vikings +1.5 | Bet to +1

Giants

vs.

Titans

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Dylan Wilkerson:It is no secret that the Titans love to run the ball, I mean their season's mantra is, "We Run It." Any Titans game will consist of clock-killing drives, and who is complaining? We all need a bathroom break during the 4:25 p.m. ET slate before Sunday Night Football.

This paired with an unproductive Giants offense and a Titans defense that can pressure a quarterback will make for a low-scoring affair.

Pick: Giants Team Total Under 19.5 | Bet to 17.5

FanDuel Quickslip: Under 43.5 | Bet to 42.5

Chiefs

vs.

Cardinals

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Cody Goggin: This play is mostly based on the heavy number of cluster injuries at key position groups that Arizona is experiencing. The spread for this game was around three points but has risen to six at the time of writing.

Four and five aren’t key numbers so this isn’t a huge move, but it’s still worth noting. I want to get this line before it gets to seven or higher in the event that the injury report is bad for the Cardinals, so I would recommend grabbing this soon.

Pick: Chiefs -5.5 | Bet to -6.5