Week 1 is always interesting because we've yet to see each team play in its current iteration. That may be especially true for the game between the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots, which is the matchup I'm targeting for my first NFL side of Week 1.
Bengals vs Patriots Odds, Pick
Bengals-Patriots Spread: Bengals -7.5 (-115) | Patriots +7.5 (-105)
Bengals-Patriots Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-110 / -110)
Bengals-Patriots Moneylines: Bengals -390 | Patriots +310
When I bet this on Tuesday, the spread was Patriots +9.5, although that was gone that night.
Bengals-Patriots Preview
There's a lot of uncertainty for both teams here.
Starting with the Bengals, quarterback Joe Burrow returns from an unusual wrist injury that sidelined him for the latter half of 2023 and star wideout Ja'Marr Chase, at the time of this writing, is still a potential holdout for Week 1. Fellow receiver Tyler Boyd has departed for Tennessee, and running back Joe Mixon is now with Green Bay.
The defense had less turnover but did add safety Vonn Bell from Carolina. Bell was previously part of a 2022 Bengals defense that ranked in the top 10.
For New England, the big change, of course, is that long-time head coach Bill Belichick has parted ways with the team, and that former Patriots player and linebackers coach Jerod Mayo is now filling that role. The Patriots also drafted quarterback Drake Maye in the first round, but are opting to start veteran Jacoby Brissett.
There's also significant turnover at wide receiver and along the offensive line for New England.
Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett vs. Joe Burrow
The number one key in any game is which quarterbacks are starting. In this case, we have Burrow vs. Brissett, and clearly the edge goes to Burrow.
Our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, ranked each QB's value against the spread. He makes Burrow worth around +5.5 points to the spread, while Brissett comes in at 0.0 — about your low-end starter or high-end backup.
If we use this as a starting point, we end up with Cincinnati as a 5.5-point favorite before looking at anything else (the rest of the offense, defense, coaching, special teams, home-field advantage, injuries, weather and intangibles).
Offenses
The question here: How much extra is the rest of the offense worth for each team?
This certainly hinges on Chase's availability, but most individual players aren't worth more than a point or two to the spread. So, while Cincinnati has an advantage along the offensive line and at wideout, it's hard to argue this totals up to more than at most a field goal's worth of an extra edge.
Defenses
On the other side of the ball, New England has a clear advantage. This is a top-10 unit that returns mostly intact. Linebacker Matthew Judon is the key departure, but the Patriots get bolstered by the return of 2023 first-round pick Christian Gonzalez, who played in just four games last year.
Cincinnati, meanwhile, was a bottom-10 unit in 2023 despite being the fifth-luckiest defense by our Expected Score metric, which powers our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings, where the Bengals had the fourth-worst defensive Expected Score.
That unit also ranked 23rd in defensive DVOA, 27th in defensive EPA and boasted the third-best defensive injury luck.
The Patriots also outspent Cincinnati on defense in terms of net defensive salary, so the gap between these two defenses could potentially widen. At worst, it doesn't point to much narrowing between these two units from last year to this season.
There is a clear edge to New England here that should negate most, if not all, of the Bengals' additional offensive edge beyond quarterback.
Bengals vs. Patriots Preview
The key matchup for me is the Bengals' defensive front against the Patriots' offensive line. While the Patriots have a horrendous offensive line, Cincinnati's strength should be through its secondary.
Last year, the Bengals ranked 28th in defensive DVOA against the run, and this front seven continues to age. As a pass-rushing unit, Cincinnati generated just the 14th-highest pressure rate and the 15th-best sack rate. That could be due for regression as sack leader Trey Hendrickson projects for the second-largest pass regression of all NFL players in 2024, per Koerner.
By facing one of the weaker defensive fronts, New England's shoddy offensive line gets a bit of a break. Expect the Patriots to focus on the run and chew clock where possible.
Bengals-Patriots Intangibles
To me, the biggest intangible is Burrow's wrist.
The specific injury he suffered was a tear of the scapholunate ligament. That injury has never been documented for an NFL quarterback and there could be some concern long-term. Only 75-to-80% of surgeries to repair this tear are successful. Injuries to this ligament impact the ability to grip objects (such as a football) and make sharp movements with the wrist — like dart-type throws of a football.
While Burrow did look solid in his lone preseason outing, he threw just seven pass attempts and didn't put the wrist to the test for a full game. All five of his completions were short. His lone deep ball fell incomplete and a second deep incompletion was negated by pass interference.
So while he looked solid in preseason, anything less than 100% for a full game means that 5.5-point difference between him and Brissett could narrow. And if the Bengals have to focus on the short passing game, which would also subsequently eat the clock.
Another intangible comes from a trend using BetLabs: Teams that won six or fewer games the previous year are 84-52-6 (60%) ATS as underdogs in Week 1.
Bengals vs. Patriots Pick
I'm having a difficult time getting to 9.5 points for the Bengals when accounting for all the factors at play here. I'll take the +9.5 that FanDuel is offering at -115 odds. I also want to grab this while the current buzz is that Chase is trending toward reaching an agreement with the Bengals, and thus playing.
If a deal is reached, that could end up pushing this line upward, but it appears most of that is baked into the market given recent developments. Since the market mostly lies at +8.5 or +9 right now, I wouldn't expect huge movement, with +9.5 likely the new consensus.
On the flip side, if Chase doesn't play, Patriots +9.5 could be gone come kickoff.
