Just like last season, every week during the 2024 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and betting card for every Sunday slate. For reference, my season-long sides record in this file last season went 37-17 (68.5%) for +18.35 units.
For my NFL Week 1 predictions, I'm targeting a pair of early afternoon kicks on Sunday and one that follows in the late slate. I have a bet on an underdog, a bet on a favorite against the spread, and a moneyline pick mixed in as well.
Let's start with the 1 p.m. ET kicks and then breeze into the late afternoon. Here are my expert NFL picks for Sunday as well as the latest NFL Week 1 odds.
Stuckey's NFL Week 1 Predictions
Underdog Pick Against Spread
Just like college football, the first week in the NFL always has its unique challenges where many factors come into play, including schematic and roster changes. Early on in the season, I'm looking for undervalued teams to back that I have strong conviction on compared to the market. The Panthers fit that bill as a Week 1 divisional 'dog, which have fared very well historically in Week 1. Here are some trends that back that up:
- Divisional underdogs are 37-15-1 ATS (71%) in Week 1 since 2014 (60% over past 20 seasons), covering by an average of nearly five points per game. And since 2010, they even have an overall winning record SU (40-38-2 SU, +32.2% ROI).
- Road underdogs in Week 1 that did not make the playoffs in the previous season have gone 90-59-5 against the spread since 2003.
In fact, my first and only win total bet that I placed before the draft was Panthers Over 4.5 Wins since I believe they will be significantly improved this season. Bryce Young can't be any worse than his rookie campaign and now, in year two, he gets to work with an upgraded supporting cast and offensive staff, led by known quarterback whisperer Dave Canales, who has recently done wonders for both Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Expect to see much more motion and play-action (which were non-existent in Carolina last year) with Young getting outside the pocket at a significantly higher rate to compensate for his lack of size.
The offensive line upgraded significantly at both guard spots, which were a disaster area in 2023, while the wide receiver room has more juice with the additions of Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette. Austin Corbett should serve as an upgrade at center over Bradley Bozeman. In his last fully healthy season in 2022, Corbett ranked in the top 25 among interior offensive linemen in pass blocking, as did both offseason guard additions. Combine that trio with a plus pair of starting tackles and this could be one of the most improved offensive lines in the NFL.
Defensively, the Panthers have suffered a bit of talent drain in the offseason, but I trust defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, who comes from the Vic Fangio coaching tree with a heavier cover-3 flavor. The major question mark for Carolina is, can it generate pressure off the edge with the spot opposite Jadeveon Clowney a glaring area of weakness?
Regardless, for this week, I think they can capitalize on New Orleans' offensive line, which profiles as one of the worst in the league. Without the injured Ryan Ramczyk and following the retirement of swing tackle James Hurst and loss of guard Andrus Peat, the situation up front looks pretty dire.
As a result, the Saints will start rookie Taliese Fuaga at left tackle (played on the right side at Oregon State) and moved Trevor Penning from the left to right side, but he has really struggled to adapt to the pro game. Along the interior, they brought in Lucas Patrick to man one of the guard spots, but that likely won't lead to much success. Per PFF, among 107 interior offensive linemen with at least 250 snaps in 2023, Patrick ranked 99th in pass blocking, while fellow starting guard Cesar Ruiz and center Erik McCoy both ranked outside the top 50 in that department.
Bottom line, the Saints offensive line should struggle mightily, especially early on in the season with all of the new pieces and a tackle position flip with one potential bust and a rookie. That could spell disaster for the immobile Derek Carr, who ranked fifth in passer rating among qualified quarterbacks when kept clean, but scuffled under pressure.
Similar to Carolina, I do expect the Saints to have better offensive structure after an offensive coordinator change, but the up-front blocking may really limit what Klint Kubiak can actually scheme up.
New Orleans boasts an above average defense but is dealing with a few potential injuries on that side of the ball. The Saints won't make things easy on Young, but I'll happily take the points in what profiles as a lower-scoring affair in a series that has gone under the total in seven straight meetings.
I like the Panthers to keep this game close with a decent chance we see their first fourth-quarter lead since the 2022 season.
Trending: Dennis Allen and Derek Carr have not had much success when laying points. Allen is just 8-16 ATS (33.33%) as a favorite, while Carr is just 23-37 (38.33%) against the number.
Week 1 Moneyline Pick
Backing Sam Darnold as a road favorite in Week 1 … what could possibly go wrong?
Similar to the Panthers, I'm higher than market coming into the year on Minnesota, in large part due to its excellent staff, led by head coach Kevin O'Connell (a tremendous overall leader and play-caller) and defensive coordinator Brian Flores.
I thought O'Connell really showed his prowess last year after losing Kirk Cousins to injury. He made do with a pathetic group of quarterbacks, so you can reasonably state Darnold serves as a decent sized upgrade from that situation. And while I won't argue Darnold is any good, he does at least possess ample experience and should benefit from working under Kyle Shanahan (apparently improved his footwork) and O'Connell in back-to-back seasons.
Plus, Darnold finds himself in a pretty good situation for the first time in his career as a starter. Not only does he have a competent play-caller, but he can also lean on new running back Aaron Jones, one of the league's top tackle tandems (Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill) and an excellent wide receiver duo.
Darnold will also benefit from facing one of the league's worst secondaries that really doesn't stand much of a chance against Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (who should play). As long as Darnold doesn't see any ghosts and make a critical mistake or two, this Vikings offense should move the ball effectively against a Giants defense that could see major regression after somehow leading the league in takeaways in 2023.
The only potential concern I have is Dexter Lawrence causing havoc up the middle against center Garrett Bradbury, which is exactly what transpired in New York's upset playoff victory over the Vikings in 2022. If he doesn't completely crater, the Minnesota tackles can neutralize the other New York defensive strength of edge pressure.
On the other side of the ball, expect Flores to cook up plenty of exotic looks and a heavy blitz rate (no team blitzed more than Minnesota in 2023) against an unsteady offensive line and quarterback who really struggles under pressure, especially now that opposing defenses don't have to worry about Saquon Barkley.
Last season, Daniel Jones finished 42nd out of 42 quarterbacks in passer rating when blitzed (min. 100 drop backs) with zero big-time throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Not great!
While I'm not in love with the Vikings secondary, they added a few veteran corners to pair with a very cerebral safety duo that will give Flores even more confidence to cook up some alien looks throughout this game.
Laying points on the road with Sam Darnold in Week 1 usually isn't my cup of tea, but I like some of the matchups, the coaches on both side of the ball and think Minnesota just has a clearly superior roster at almost every non-QB position group outside of defensive line, but the Vikings have a much better offensive line to help make up that difference. And, this is one of the few games on their schedule where they won't be at a severe disadvantage when it comes to quarterback play.
Lastly, if the Vikings need a big kick, they may have finally found a reliable option in Alabama rookie Will Reichard.
Trending: Amazingly, since 2020, unders in Giants home games have hit at a 75% clip (24-8-1).
NFL Spread Pick on a Favorite
Let's close things out with another wager based on preseason conviction.
I believe the Seahawks are coming into the season a bit undervalued; hence why they were the only other season win total over I bet along with the aforementioned Panthers.
A large part of that has to do with the hiring of new head coach Mike Macdonald, who brought in a very savvy offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. As a Ravens fan, I saw firsthand how much Macdonald excelled from a preparation perspective on the defensive end in Baltimore last year with spectacular matchup-specific gameplan tailored to each opponent on a weekly basis. You never knew what wrinkles or coverage mixes you were going to get, which made it much more difficult for opposing offenses to prepare and led to an abundance of mistakes by opposing quarterbacks.
I expect Seattle's stop unit to be fully prepared right off the bat. That potentially spells doom for rookie quarterback Bo Nix in his first career NFL start, which will come in one of the most hostile environments in the entire league. I expect Nix to make a critical mistake or two.
For what it's worth, since the NFL merger in 1970, rookie QBs have struggled on the road in Week 1 at 8-19 SU and 12-13-2 ATS, averaging under 19 points per game. A rookie hasn't won SU or ATS on the road in Week 1 since Sam Darnold did it back in 2018.
On the other side of the ball, Denver doesn't usually run much of the schematic stuff that scares me when backing Geno Smith and their improvement as the season progressed in 2023 had a lot to do with turnover luck, which could regress hard in 2024.
Plus, overall, the Seattle receiving corps holds a major edge against a Denver secondary that has exploitable areas outside of Patrick Surtain in addition to a very vulnerable group of linebackers in coverage. I expect Smith to have a big day, especially since I'm not as concerned about Seattle's biggest area of weakness (its offensive line) against this Denver front.
Give me the Seahawks to get it done at home against a rookie quarterback by a touchdown-plus.
Trending: Seattle has been a cash cow at home over the past two decades. Since 2005, the Seahawks have gone 85-63-5 (57.4%) in the Emerald City, including 23-10 (69.7%) against the closing number during the month of September with an average cover margin of just under five points per game.
NFL Week 1 Odds for Every Game
- Steelers vs Falcons: Falcons -3.5
- Jaguars vs. Dolphins: Dolphins -3.5
- Vikings vs. Giants: Vikings -1.5
- Titans vs. Bears: Bears -4
- Panthers vs. Saints: Saints -3.5
- Cardinals vs. Bills: Bills -6.5
- Bengals vs. Patriots: Bengals -7.5
- Texans vs. Colts: Texans -3
- Broncos vs. Seahawks: Seahawks -6
- Raiders vs. Chargers: Chargers -3
- Cowboys vs. Browns: Browns -2.5
- Commanders vs. Bucs: Bucs -3.5
- Rams vs. Lions: Lions -4.5
- Jets vs. 49ers: 49ers -4
Odds via our live, updating NFL odds page. Be sure to shop around for the best lines when making your bets.
