NFL Odds & Picks
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Derek Farnsworth: We think we know more about these teams than we really do, but I see the Steelers and Bengals trending in opposite directions.
The Steelers seem to get a little worse defensively each season and they also have one of the worst offensive lines. I'm not sure Mitch Trubisky is a downgrade from the corpse of Ben Roethlisberger, but he's been given so many opportunities to start in the NFL and never taken advantage of it. I love Pittsburgh’s receivers, but I don't trust the quarterback or the offensive line.
Now, the Bengals are primed to have another outstanding season. We shouldn't expect them to reach the Super Bowl again, but it's not out of the question. This will be Joe Burrow's second season back from his knee injury and management fixed the most glaring weakness on the team — the offensive line, which could be the most improved in the league from last season. Burrow has all of the weapons in the world and Cincy’s defense can get pressure on the opposing quarterback.
I'll take the Bengals to cover 6.5 at home.
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Derek Farnsworth: Like the entire football industry, I am worried about the Patriots.
Their offense has never had so many question marks. They lost one of the best playcallers in football in Josh McDaniels and replaced him with Matt Patricia (!?!). Perhaps he's a great offensive mind that's been kept a secret all these years, but he's essentially worked on the defensive side every season since 2005. The running game can still be good and the defense has a ton of talent, but I'm worried about this team.
Rather than taking the 3.5-point spread on the Dolphins, I'll grab the adjusted spread of 6.5 and take +135 odds. We aren't going through any key numbers and we are getting much better odds.
Miami revamped its roster and coaching staff. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert give Tua Tagovailoa some of the best weapons of any quarterback. Add in some new schemes from head coach Mike McDaniel – and likely a good defense – and we have a team with one of the widest ranges of outcomes.
I like Miami, but this is more of a bet against New England in the early part of the season.
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John LanFranca: One of these teams is ascending and the other is in transitional turmoil.
The Patriots lost their offensive architect (Josh McDaniels) and replaced him with a coach who has not been an offensive assistant in 17 years. I am speaking of Matt Patricia, of course. That isn't the only major question the Patriots have to answer. Jalen Mills will take over the top corner spot on the roster after J.C. Jackson, the 11th-best CB in coverage success rate, moved on to the Chargers. Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy are gone as well for a defense that was already giving up 4.5-plus yards per carry a season ago.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, no longer have to completely handcuff their offense to compensate for a porous offensive line. Going from a bottom-five left tackle who gave up the most pressures in football, Liam Eichenberg, to a top-five-graded pass blocker (according to PFF) in Terron Armstead cannot be overstated. Also added to the mix is top-ten guard Connor Williams, who allowed one sack the entirety of 2021. The idea of explosive plays are now attainable with the playmakers added at the skill positions.
Sportsbooks have responded to the big-money wagers on the home team here, moving the line all the way to -3 since opening. They can see the writing on the wall: The Dolphins are going to make a statement in Week 1.
Play the Dolphins -3.5 up to -4.
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John LanFranca: The Bears do not have to be a good football team to cover this number. Trey Lance is starting his second career NFL road game behind an offensive line that has a lot of question marks outside of Trent Williams. Without the 49ers winning up front when they possess the ball, any confidence in them winning by double digits should wane.
There have only been six Week 1 games since 2012 in which a home underdog was getting seven or more points – grabbing the points was the correct position in all but one instance.
Justin Fields being better than Lance at this stage of their careers is in the range of outcomes heading into 2022. It is rightfully assumed due to a substantial advantage in supporting cast that Lance is in a better position for sustained long-term success, but we are only focused on this game, in this exact spot. I will gladly fade San Francisco – sans George Kittle – laying a touchdown on the road in a low scoring affair.
Play the Bears +6.5.
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Anthony Dabbundo: Indianapolis has been a notorious slow starter under head coach Frank Reich, and I think a lot of that has to do with turnover at the quarterback position.
The Colts have lost every Week 1 since 2014, but in 2018, Andrew Luck wasn't 100% healthy in his return from injury. In '19, Jacoby Brissett just became the starter after Luck's shock retirement. The Colts then entered '20 and '21 with new quarterbacks and struggled offensively in those games, losing to Jacksonville and Seattle.
Not only do the Colts have a new quarterback this year, but they have a new left tackle, a new defensive coordinator and now will be without star defensive playmaker Shaq Leonard.
It's hard to say anything nice about the Texans, who are the league's worst team on paper and will likely be so throughout the course of the season. But the same was true last year when Houston thumped Jacksonville at home in Week 1. Divisional underdogs are a very strong Week 1 trend and the Colts are probably not the offense to exploit Houston's secondary deficiencies the most given their average receiver group.
The Colts may snap their Week 1 losing streak, but the spread is a tad inflated, especially when you consider the familiarity of the opponents and the tendency for divisional games to play tighter. Anything at +7 to better and I like Houston.
