NFL Week 1 Picks for Our Free-to-Play Taylor Swift Contest: Ravens vs. Chiefs Spread, More

Thursday is The Best Day … football is back, Taylor Swift will be at the game, and it’s your first chance to enter the Tix Pick 6 for a chance to win tickets to the Eras Tour in Vancouver!

The effect Taylor Swift had on the NFL last season was immediate. More and more women were tuning in and excited to watch football. Two of my biggest passions are football and Taylor Swift, so I was beyond excited to have these two worlds colliding.

One of my favorite ways to enjoy watching the game is through betting, which I know can seem really intimidating and confusing. So I wanted to try to find a way to make betting less intimidating for newcomers, especially women! Betting really isn’t as complicated as the Chads, Brads, and Dads make it seem.

Plus, even if you don’t bet, betting is becoming more engrained in sports culture, and I want to make sure everyone feels they can understand what’s going on. So I spent the last year coming up with a plan, and just had to clear one final hurdle: convincing my boss to let me create a free to play game with the chance to win a trip to the Eras Tour.

And Long Story Short, it finally worked — what can I say? I’m a Mastermind. (Also, I feel it’s important you all know that my boss’ name IS Chad, but he’s not one of those Chads.)

So … what’s the game?

For a detailed explanation of how to play our Eras Tour tickets NFL picks contest, click here! For a quick overview, keep reading!

Each week, you’ll make six picks.

The first two picks will be related to Taylor — they could be related to her attending the game, or her shows once she’s touring again, or even some trivia.

The last four picks will all be questions related to the Chiefs game that week, intended to teach you some basic betting concepts — spreads, totals, and player props. Don’t worry if you don’t know what any of that means. That’s what I’m here for! Consider me your betting translator for the next 10 weeks. I’ll also include analysis from our experts so you can make informed choices. You can earn up to 13 points a week, which will turn into entries in the grand prize drawing.

If I can give you one piece of advice to start, it would be to wait until game day to put your picks in. That way, you have all the information you need to make an educated guess. Sometimes, injuries or weather can have a large effect on a game, for example. And if I know anything about Swifties, I know you’ll want to give yourself the best possible chance to win.

I’ll be updating the article as needed with analysis from our experts, news and information, weather updates, pretty much anything that might impact the choices you make.

Okay so let’s dive into Week 1 of the contest – Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 1.

The reigning Super Bowl champions are taking on the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson, and his Ravens at Arrowhead Stadium, and odds are pretty good that Taylor will be there.

So let’s get into some of the fun stuff. There’s not too much analysis to be done here — I trust you all can make these picks yourself — but I’ll at least let you know what I’m thinking.

First up, you have to guess two people that will be shown in Taylor’s suite. I’m playing it safe this week and guessing Jason and Kylie Kelce. The Chiefs will be unveiling their Super Bowl banner, and I expect Travis’ family to be all together for that.

Next question: Will the broadcast play a Taylor song going into/coming out of commercial breaks?

I’m going to go with yes on this one. The game is airing on NBC, and if you remember, NBC used one of her songs for an Olympic promo just this summer. I’d be shocked if they didn’t get a song or two cleared to kick off the NFL season.

Pick 1: The Spread

The first game related pick you’ll have to make is choosing a team against the spread. You might be asking, "What’s a spread?" The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers almost like a ‘handicap.’ It’s basically the expected final score difference. Teams with a + number are the underdogs, and a – number means they’re the favorite. This week, your two options are Baltimore +3 or Kansas City -3.

So, what do you have to do? You pick a team. If you pick the Ravens, you’ll add 3 points to their final score. If you pick the Chiefs you’ll subtract 3 points from their final score. Once you do that, does your team have more points than the other team? If so, they covered the spread and you win a point! What if they tie? In the betting world, that’s called a "push," and you’d receive your money back. In the Tix Pick 6, that means everyone gets a point.

I’m lucky enough to work with incredibly smart experts who do so much research, and I typically listen to their thoughts before I make any picks.

Early on in the NFL season, we typically look at a lot of trends to help inform decisions. Per our Director of Research, Evan Abrams, John Harbaugh, the coach of the Ravens, is the most profitable coach against the spread (ATS) in Week 1. Over the past eight years, Harbaugh and the Ravens have failed to cover the spread in Week 1 just one time! Plus, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 12-1 ATS as an underdog.

So for those reasons, this week I’m backing Baltimore +3. And as a reminder, that means I think Baltimore will lose by less than three points or they’ll win.

My boss, Chad Millman, and Simon Hunter broke down this game on The Favorites yesterday in case you want to hear more.

Pick 2: The Total

The next pick you’ll make is the total. This is referring to the total combined points scored by both teams, and you’ll decide whether you think it’ll be over or under the number the oddsmakers set.

The total for this game is 46.5 points. You’ll pick Over or Under.

Since 2018, Week 1 games have gone under their projected total 65% of the time. Because of that, I’m going with under 46.5 this week.

Picks 3 & 4: Travis Kelce props

Finally, you’ll get to make picks about how Travis Kelce performs in the game. Bets on a player's performance are called player props.

First, you’ll choose whether or not you think Travis Kelce will score a touchdown. This week, his odds are around +105 to score a touchdown. But what does that mean?! Basically, if I bet $100 on him to score a touchdown and he did, I’d win my money back plus $105.

The oddsmakers think this is pretty likely to happen — and I’m going to be totally real with you, I will probably always say yes to a Travis Kelce TD for this game, knowing he’s Patrick Mahomes’ go-to.

And for the last football-related question of the week, you’re going to decide whether Travis Kelce will have more or less than 56.5 receiving yards. Travis had solid performances with his Lover in the crowd last season. He went over this number in 11 of the 14 games she attended last year, so I’m sticking with that, and I’m taking Travis Kelce over 56.5 receiving yards.

Final Thoughts

I just know I’m going to be feeling So High School watching these two on my screen again this football season. I hope you’ll have some fun playing along with me over the next ten weeks. As a reminder, here are my picks for the week:

• Will they play a Taylor Swift song going into/out of commercials? Yes
• Who will be shown in the suite with Taylor Swift? Jason & Kylie Kelce
• Spread: Baltimore +3
• Total: Under 46.5
• Will Travis Kelce score a TD? Yes
• Travis Kelce Over/Under 56.5 receiving yards: Over

Best of luck to everyone. 1… 2… 3… LGB! (For complete terms and conditions, click here. Please note, this game is not affiliated with Taylor Swift.)