The NFL is finally back on Thursday night, with the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs hosting the Ravens in a rematch of the AFC Championship game. That's where I begin my NFL Week 1 predictions and picks, although I don't have a bet on that game.
Week 1 features four exciting primetime games, including a matchup in South America for the first time as the Packers and Eagles face off in Sao Paolo, Brazil. Between divisional showdowns, playoff rematches and rookie quarterbacks making their franchise debuts, this slate has tons to offer.
Every week, I'll break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. Lines move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season. With that said, I'll be giving you the bets I'm betting now, leaning towards taking and passing on entirely. Here's to a great season!
NFL Week 1 Predictions, Picks
| Table of Contents |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Friday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 1 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
I’ll never understand the Ravens’ offensive strategy in the AFC Championship Game. Baltimore entered the game with the second-best rushing offense in the NFL during the regular season and was facing a Chiefs defense that ranked sixth against the pass and 23rd against the run by EPA on early downs.
And the Ravens called three early-down running back runs in the game. The world may never know what offensive coordinator Todd Monken was thinking in the game but with Derrick Henry now in tow, expect a heavy dose of the run against the Chiefs this time.
However, Kansas City’s offense has improved since that conference championship, thanks to the addition of dynamic rookie wideout Xavier Worthy. Fellow offseason addition Marquise Brown will miss this game, but Worthy gives Kansas City a downfield weapon it didn’t have amidst Patrick Mahomes’ worst passing season since entering the league.
I’m intrigued to see how Baltimore’s defense looks in this game. Former coordinator Mike Macdonald is now the Seahawks head coach after leading a historic great unit. Now, 32-year-old former linebacker Zach Orr is taking over, and facing Mahomes and Andy Reid in his first game calling defensive plays is a tall order.
I show a slight value on Baltimore here at +3 but not enough to bet it, especially with the Ravens integrating three new starters on the offensive line.
Verdict: Pass
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Friday Night Football
While the league continues to pursue globalization efforts, the Packers and Eagles are pursuing defensive improvement. Philadelphia hired Vic Fangio, and Green Bay hired Jeff Hafley to jumpstart defenses that ranked in the bottom 10 in early down success rate allowed over the second half of the season.
I’m expecting some red-zone regression from Green Bay after scoring a touchdown on 95% of goal-to-go situations, the best rate of any team since at least 2000, per Sharp Football. The Packers also have some potential issues on the offensive line, where their interior O-line looks to be at a significant disadvantage against an Eagles front led by Jalen Carter.
Philadelphia's defense should be much improved under Fangio, especially with a now-healthy Nakobe Dean ready for a breakout as the green-dot MIKE linebacker. The secondary also receives a major boost with a healthy Darius Slay and the addition of rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
I'm bullish on the long-term trajectory of a Kellen Moore Eagles offense, but it could take some time to gel, especially with the loss of Jason Kelce. Jalen Hurts must set protections at the line of scrimmage now without Kelce, and the Tush Push might also take a hit out of the gates. Hafley's aggressive 4-3 defense will give Hurts different blitz packages all night.
Green Bay's secondary gets a huge boost with the signing of Xavier McKinney, who was PFF's fourth-best safety last year, and a healthy Jaire Alexander, who played in just seven games last year.
I'm buying improvement for both defenses in this game. While Love and Hurts are capable of putting up numbers, this total has ticked up too high. With travel and elevation playing a role in an unfamiliar setting, take the under on Friday night.
Verdict: Bet Under 49.5
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Passes
The Steelers finished the year ranked first in Action Network's Luck Rankings last season, and that’s part of the reason I bet the under on their win total at 8.5. I’m not bullish on a Russell Wilson-Arthur Smith offense in the slightest, and the Steelers are already down multiple projected starting offensive linemen before the season has even begun.
However, the Falcons are integrating many new parts, including a new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, and a new coaching staff led by former Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. I show slight value on the Falcons here but it’s a pass since I want to learn more about this team.
Verdict: Pass
The status of Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips is crucial in this game, especially with Bradley Chubb on the PUP list. Trevor Lawrence has been one of the most sensitive quarterbacks to pressure in the NFL since entering the league, and the Jaguars bring back essentially the same group of offensive linemen that ranked 29th in pass-block win rate last year.
The Dolphins also have wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and defensive backs Jalen Ramsey and Jevon Holland on the injury report. They’re all expected to play, but you should monitor their statuses.
Keep an eye on the weather, too, with heavy rain potentially in the Miami forecast on Sunday. That would significantly hurt Lawrence, who leads the NFL with 21 lost fumbles over the last two seasons; no other player has more than 14.
Verdict: Pass
I have a lot of questions about this Bengals defense after ranking 30th in early down success rate allowed and losing uber-important D.J. Reader.
Over the last two years, the Bengals had the number one run defense by EPA with Reader on the field and the 31st-ranked defense without him. I’m also not sold on this offensive line that hasn’t ranked better than 27th in pass-block win rate in any of Joe Burrow’s seasons with the team.
This isn’t the game that will test those potential flaws. The Patriots might have the worst offensive line and skill position talent in the NFL on an offense helmed by Jacoby Brissett. New England also ranked 27th in pass-rush win rate last year and lost Matthew Judon.
Joe Burrow’s wrist injury introduces added uncertainty to this game, as does Ja’Marr Chase’s ongoing holdout. If the Bengals are firing on all cylinders, this game is a blowout, but I’m not rushing to the window to lay nine points with a team we’ve seen play with its food early in the season in the past.
The Bengals will be the most popular survivor pick this week, but I’m targeting a different game later on for my survivor pools.
Verdict: Pass
The Colts haven’t won a Week 1 game since 2013 when Andrew Luck was still the quarterback.
To change that this week, we need to see a different defensive strategy from Gus Bradley than his traditional Cover 3 scheme that C.J. Stroud terrorized last year. Stroud finished with an 8.8 yards-per-attempt average and four touchdowns to no interceptions in two games against the Colts.
I’m bullish on Anthony Richardson’s upside with Shane Steichen’s coaching. Still, I’m expecting some growing pains early this season as he develops better accuracy and decision-making beyond the scripted portion of the game.
The Texans hype is a bit out of control for a team with the toughest year-over-year increase in schedule difficulty, but I’m not confident that this is the spot to fade them.
Verdict: Pass
Bo Nix makes his debut for the Broncos this week in one of the league's most hostile environments. Lumen Field, the home of the 12s, will be rocking for the season opener. Seattle’s defense looks nasty this year, with former Ravens coordinator Mike Macdonald leading a group featuring Riq Woolen, Devon Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and more.
I’m also high on Seattle’s projected increased usage of play-action and tempo and a forecasted uptick in red-zone efficiency under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
I’m not rushing to lay the points against a Sean Payton team that could have some tricks up its sleeve in Week 1, but it would be the Seahawks or pass on the spread for me here.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
This is a lot of respect for the Bears. According to Evan Abrams, Chicago hasn’t been favored by 4+ points in Week 1 since 2014. The hype train has left the station as Caleb Williams debuts for the Bears. He’s the 19th first overall pick to start in Week 1 at quarterback, and the previous 18 went 3-14-1 SU and 5-12-1 ATS (29%).
Don’t sleep on a Titans defense that added seven new starters this offseason, headlined by cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who didn’t allow a single touchdown on 600 coverage snaps last year. Keep an eye on Chidobe Awuzie's status for the Titans. His presence is essential this week against a very talented Bears’ receiving corps.
Will Levis led the NFL in aDOT last year and is never afraid to push the ball downfield. Last year, his lack of accuracy was problematic, but new head coach Brian Callahan will empower him with a high pass rate on early downs and put him in positions to succeed. Chicago’s pass defense was improved last year, but even after Montez Sweat entered the fold, it ranked 24th in pressure rate.
Verdict: Lean Titans +4.5
The Lions won 12 games last year despite a defense that ranked 23rd in points per game allowed, and I expect that side of the ball to be much improved this year. Defensive lineman D.J. Reader is a massive addition to the run defense and pass rush. The secondary has also been remade with veterans Carlton Davis and Amik Robertson and rookie Terrion Arnold.
Meanwhile, I am concerned about a Rams defense that lost coordinator Raheem Morris, future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald and green dot signal caller Ernest Jones. Veteran additions Tre’Davious White, Darious Williams and Kamrel Curl could help the secondary. However, Los Angeles already ranked 21st in EPA per play allowed on early downs last year, and it’s unlikely it improved given those losses.
Keep an eye on the status of Penei Sewell, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta for the Lions, all listed as questionable for this game. The Rams also have offensive linemen Jonah Jackson and Rob Havestein listed as questionable, with left tackle Alaric Jackson already suspended.
Verdict: Lean Lions -3.5; monitor injury reports
The line for this game has been all over the place. It opened at 49ers -5.5 over the summer and then, with concerns over the availability of Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams, it got as low as -3.5. Those players are now settled in as far as their contracts go, and both will be on the field on Monday night.
I’m excited to see how the 49ers’ offense responds to a much more difficult schedule. Last year, they played the sixth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses. That starts immediately against the Jets, who led the NFL in early down success rate allowed last season. The status of Haason Reddick will be essential to monitor for New York as he continues to hold out after being acquired via trade this summer.
The 49ers struggled to defend the run last year, ranking 20th in early down rushing success rate allowed, and Breece Hall is poised to exploit that as one of the most talented backs in the NFL. That will help ease the burden on Aaron Rodgers, who is making his return for the Jets after last season's Achilles injury.
I make this game 49ers -3.5, even with Williams and Aiyuk active, so I show some value on the Jets +4.5 here. I’ll likely end up backing New York, but I’d love more clarity on Reddick’s status.
Verdict: Lean Jets +4.5; monitor Reddick’s status
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NFL Week 1 Picks
Sam Darnold is back at MetLife Stadium and starting for the Vikings in a bizarro multiversal Week 1 plot. However, I’m more interested in betting on the other side of this matchup as Daniel Jones returns from a torn ACL. He wasn’t cleared for contact until July and while he says he’s confident he’s ready to go, he only scrambled once on 19 dropbacks in his one preseason game. That’s a huge deal, given what we know about Jones and this offense.
In 2022, Jones had a productive season, leading the Giants to the playoffs. His best asset was his legs, as he finished with 708 rushing yards on a 9.8% scramble rate. He finished third in scramble EPA behind only Josh Allen and Justin Fields.
However, if he can’t produce on the ground, it gets ugly quickly. Jones doesn’t handle pressure well. Over the last two years, he has had a 22% pressure-to-sack rate (41st), and we know sacks are drive-killers. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores also knows this, and he’s likely to dial up the blitz early and often as Minnesota led the league with a 51.5% blitz rate last year.
Jones ranked 42nd out of 43 qualified QBs with a 31.8 PFF passing grade against the blitz last year, finishing with a staggering 8.3% turnover-worthy play rate (third-highest). That’s with two fully healthy knees. I expect this to be a difficult return to the field for Jones, so I’m fading the Giants’ offense.
Verdict: Bet Giants Team Total Under 20.5
I’m bullish on what Dave Canales can accomplish with Bryce Young this season. Young had a horrendous rookie season, but Carolina invested in him this offseason, bringing in three new starters on the interior offensive line. The Panthers added wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who is tied for the league lead in ESPN’s open score since entering the NFL in 2019.
Regression metrics also suggest an improvement for the Panthers this year. They ranked 30th in injury luck, 28th in EPA off turnovers, and 24th in field goal luck and they finished 2-6 in one-score games. They finished 31st in the Action Network's Luck Rankings last year.
It’s worth noting that the Saints finished 32nd, but that doesn’t deter me from fading them as a favorite. Derek Carr is 74-83-3 ATS as a favorite since entering the league in 2014, which ranks 165th out of 166 quarterbacks. He’s 10-26-2 ATS when favored by a field goal or more, going 3-14-1 ATS (17%) in his last 18 games in that spot.
It’s worth noting that the Saints' hiring of new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could also improve their offense. Pete Carmichael was graded as one of the worst play-callers in the NFL last year, ranking dead last in the use of play-action and pre-snap motion, and Kubiak should implement more of a Shanahan-esque offensive playbook.
I also lean the over in this game, with two improved offenses, but I’d love to get it under the key number of 41, so I’m monitoring that for now. However, I’ll happily back the Panthers to cover in New Orleans, where the Saints are 7-15 ATS since 2021, the second-worst rate in the NFL over that span.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +4 | Lean Over at 41 or Better
After taking over as offensive coordinator partway through last season, Joe Brady led Buffalo to a third-place finish in EPA per play from Weeks 11-18. Imagine what he can do with a full offseason to work with Josh Allen, who is coming off a career-low turnover-worthy play rate.
Yes, Buffalo lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. But Diggs averaged just 42 yards per game over the final ten games last year, and Davis was limited in his utility beyond an occasional field-stretching deep threat. Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir are ready to step into more prominent roles in the passing game.
More importantly, the Bills return four of five starters from an offensive line that ranked in the top seven in both ESPN’s pass-block and run-block win rates. Josh Allen was the NFL’s highest-graded passer from a clean pocket last year, and the Cardinals ranked 28th in pass-rush win rate. Overall, Arizona ranked dead last in pass defense by EPA and showed minimal improvement throughout the season.
Arizona’s offense improved over the second half of last season once Kyler Murray returned from injury, but they lived on third down (11th in EPA per play) and in the red zone (third in TD%). The Cardinals ranked just 18th in early down success rate from Week 10 on last season, which is more predictive of year-over-year success.
The addition of rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. helps the Cardinals, who will have a fun offense to watch this year. But this is a massive step up in weight class, with perhaps the NFL’s worst defense facing one of its best quarterbacks. Back the Bills to start their season with a statement win at home, and take the Bills in your survivor pools with limited future value on their difficult schedule.
Verdict: Bet Bills -5.5 (Bet to -6)
The Jim Harbaugh era kicks off in Los Angeles, and I expect a completely different look on offense compared to Kellen Moore’s up-tempo, pass-heavy offense. Harbaugh hired Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator and when those two worked together in San Francisco from 2011-14, the 49ers ranked 31st in passing plays per game (30.7).
The Raiders struggled on run defense last year, but defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is a transformative addition after grading as one of the best run defenders in the NFL over the past few seasons. The Chargers bolstered their offensive line by taking Joe Alt with the fifth overall pick, but he’s facing the maniacal Maxx Crosby to start his NFL career.
Like the Chargers, the Raiders are a run-heavy team that ranked ninth in early down rush play rate last year. That caused them to reach third downs on 56% of series, per Sharp Football, the second-highest rate in the NFL. That won’t change after Zamir White ranked 43rd in success rate at the running back position last year.
The Chargers’ defense should be much improved simply by losing Brandon Staley. New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter led the best defense in the country last season with Harbaugh at Michigan. A healthy Joey Bosa will be a problem for Thayer Munford at right tackle after he ranked 66th out of 89 qualified tackles in PFF’s pass-blocking grades last year.
Justin Herbert’s career trajectory has improved massively under Harbaugh, but he’s not projected to put up league-leading numbers with a pass-catching corps led by Josh Palmer.
With two new offensive coordinators implementing systems on Sunday and two divisional opponents who know each other well, I’m projecting a cagey start to this game and taking the first half under.
Verdict: Bet 1H Under 20.5 Points
The Buccaneers were a complete luckbox last season. They finished third in Action Network's Luck Rankings last season and had no business making the playoffs. They finished top ten in fumble luck, field goal luck, and injury luck. They gained +40.1 EPA from turnovers, which ranked sixth in the NFL.
Perhaps most criminally, they ranked 31st in early down success rate and lived on unsustainable third and fourth-down success all season. Baker Mayfield somehow jumped from 26th in EPA+CPOE on first and second down to 5th on third and fourth down. That type of split screams regression.
Dan Quinn, Washington’s new head coach, operates a havoc-minded defense that should ratchet up the pass rush for a defense that ranked dead last in pressure rate last year. Mayfield had a staggering drop from a 70.2% completion rate in a clean pocket to a 49% completion rate under pressure last season.
Yes, we’re backing a rookie quarterback on the road here. But Jayden Daniels isn’t your ordinary rookie quarterback. He’s the only quarterback in FBS history with 12,000+ passing yards and 3,000+ rushing yards. He averaged nearly 90 rushing yards per game over the last two years at LSU, giving him a high ceiling in a Kliff Kingsbury that will empower him to be a playmaker.
It will take some time for this Commanders team to come together, and the defense can’t be fixed overnight after ranking 30th or worse in seemingly every major metric last season. However, the Bucs are at the top of my list of teams to fade this season, particularly as a favorite — per Evan Abrams, Mayfield is 14-26-1 ATS (35%) as a favorite since being drafted in 2018, the third-worst quarterback in the league over that span.
Verdict: Bet Commanders +3.5
The Browns are coming off an excellent defensive season. According to Sharp Football, they ranked No. 1 in EPA allowed when removing sacks, the best of any team since 2019, despite ranking 27th in health. Cleveland did play a slew of backup/injured quarterbacks, inflating their metrics somewhat, but Jim Schwartz is a brilliant defensive mind who has had all offseason to prepare for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.
Dallas is integrating two new offensive linemen after losing Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz this offseason. Tyler Guyton is slated to start at left tackle despite starting one game at that position for a gimmicky, non-pro-style Oklahoma offense. The inexperienced Brock Hoffman takes over at center, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see some protection issues against a lethal Browns D-line featuring reigning Defensive Player of the Year Award-winner Myles Garrett.
If there was one weakness for the Browns last year, it was defending the run — they ranked 22nd in early down success rate allowed to the run. However, Dallas isn’t built to attack this flaw with Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged a career-low 2.53 yards after contact per attempt last year.
Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is making his return from a shoulder injury that hampered his offseason. He still hasn’t looked close to Texans Watson since joining the Browns, and he ranked 40th out of 49 qualified passers in success rate last season.
Jack Conklin is playing left tackle for the Browns this season for the first time in nearly a decade. He’s returning from a season-ending injury, while Jedrick Wills is not expected to be ready for the start of the season. That leaves Dawand Jones, a fourth-round pick last year, to start at right tackle. He impressed last year, but going up against Micah Parsons is a different beast.
Watson struggled mightily under pressure last season, and with this makeshift offensive line facing the Cowboys’ top-ranked pass rush from last season, issues could ensue. I expect the defensive lines to win the day here, and 15 mph winds in the forecast could make passing even more complicated.
Verdict: Bet Under 42.5 Points
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