Welcome to the first full Sunday of the NFL season.
As you're firing up RedZone and listening to Scott Hanson’s sweet voice, check out the PrizePicks app, which allows you to pair up and legally wager on player props.
Here are my two favorite PrizePicks plays for Week 1’s main slate.
Mecole Hardman
Under 4 Receptions
Mecole Hardman is going to get more love with Tyreek Hill in South Beach, right?
I disagree.
Hardman is a fine receiver, but is he any better than JuJu Smith-Schuster or Marquez Valdes-Scantling? Moreover, all three of those guys are behind Travis Kelce.
Hardman failed to collect four receptions in 10 of his final 12 games of 2021 and finished with less than 10% of Kansas City’s target share in six of the final eight games. I don’t think he’ll see a sustained increase in targets in the new scheme.
Plus, Arizona held 14 of the final 24 pass catchers it faced underneath their receptions total last season. Say what you want about Kliff Kingsbury, but there is still talent in Arizona’s secondary.
With the Chiefs switching out Hill for multiple other options, that just means Mahomes has more guys to spread the ball around to. That decreases everyone’s potential output. I’ll be betting Kansas City reception unders all season long and that starts here.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Hardman for just three receptions. That’s a good enough edge to bet.
Pick: Under 4 Receptions
Cordarrelle Patterson
Under 9.5 Rush Attempts
Cordarrelle Patterson is one of my favorite players in the NFL. He makes electric plays and his ability to play multiple roles in an offense is fun to watch.
However, as a natural wide receiver, he’s unreliable. When things were working, Patterson got plenty of touches out of the backfield. He managed over 10 rush attempts in six games last season.
However, Patterson failed to cash this number in the other 10 games he played. Two of those came against the Saints, when Patterson finished with a combined 13 carries.
The Saints have one of the best defenses in the NFL. Arthur Smith will have to get creative to beat Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis. Running the ball up the middle with Patterson is not the way to do that.
In fact, the Saints held 14 of the past 18 rushers with an attempts line under that number at the end of 2021. The league has figured it out: You don’t want to run on the Saints — especially with a converted wide receiver.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Patterson for 8.2 rush attempts, which provides plenty of value against this PrizePicks number.
Pick: Under 9.5 Rush Attempts
