NFL Week 1 Recap, Reactions: An Overreaction for All 32 Teams

The first NFL week of the new 2024 season is in the books!

Week 1 felt like Christmas came early, with 16 games and 32 new presents of team data to unwrap and enjoy.

There's nothing quite like the time-honored tradition of overreacting to everything we saw on Opening Day, so let's overreact to one thing from all 32 teams, then reach an early verdict on whether that overreaction is a real or not real takeaway from Week 1.

Arizona Cardinals

Overreaction: The Cardinals are exactly what we thought — all offense, no defense!!

Arizona led 17-3 near halftime, but the only Cardinalstouchdown after that was scored on the first kickoff return TD of the new dynamic kickoff era, and the defense got trucked by Josh Allen.

Kyler Murray looked like his vintage self but also took four sacks and finished with only 162 yards, and it was disappointing to see Marvin Harrison Jr. secure only one catch for four yards on three targets.

There's no shame in losing by six to the Bills, and the offense showed some promising signals, but it's clear the defense has a long way to go.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Atlanta Falcons

Overreaction: Falcons fans and bettors should PANIC about Kirk Cousins!!

Cousins made his debut for Atlanta after not even playing a snap in the preseason, and he looked the part. He threw two interceptions, fumbled a snap, got sacked twice and had two other strip sacks taken away by penalty.

Cousins was horrendous. He finished at -0.32 EPA per play and completed only five passes for 41 yards combined to Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Most importantly, he never even looked remotely comfortable in the pocket.

Atlanta ran all but two plays out of pistol or shotgun, but every shotgun play was a pass while 21 of 26 pistol plays (81%) were runs. That's a huge, glaring tell to any competent defense, and it's unacceptable at the professional level. The Falcons didn't run a single snap of play action all game and Cousins barely left the pocket.

It could not be clearer that Atlanta is not comfortable with Cousins moving right now, and Atlanta's presumed great offensive line looked shaky in pass protection at times. T.J. Watt and Pittsburgh are a tough first test, but Cousins does not look ready right now.

The Falcons are still plus money to miss the playoffs at +125 (BetMGM), and they play the Eagles and Chiefs up next while they figure this out. Those odds will have a minus in front of them after that.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Baltimore Ravens

Overreaction: The Ravens can be better than ever with Lamar Jackson playing like this!!

Game 1 of 272 was an absolute banger, coming down to one-half inch on Isaiah Likely's foot on the final play of the game. Lamar Jackson was incredible, repeatedly scampering around to avoid pressure and coming up with huge play after huge play on third downs and on what might have been the winning drive.

Baltimore's offensive line was a sieve, but Jackson played like an MVP with his right arm and his legs. He was electric as a runner, racking up 122 yards on 16 carries, and the hidden yards he saved avoiding sacks and mistakes may have been even more important. Jackson reportedly lost 12 pounds and looks lighter and faster than ever.

All of that is fine and great, but the Ravens are a worse team if they need this level from Jackson to compete. He simply cannot run 16 times a game all season, especially at his size, and he needs much more than 13 carries and 46 yards from Derrick Henry and more help from guys like Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews.

The truth is that Jackson carried Baltimore. The defense let the Chiefs move the ball all night long. The weapons did nothing outside of Likely. Even the special teams came up short when Justin Tucker missed a kick. Last year's formula was elite defense and special teams and just enough Jackson as needed.

On Opening Night, Lamar Jackson finally looked and played like an MVP — and that's bad news for Baltimore. The Ravens are much better as a whole team effort, not a one-man show.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Buffalo Bills

Overreaction: After all that, it's still the same old Josh Allen show!!

It was another slow start to the season as Buffalo trailed 17-3 near halftime, and at that point, Allen had attempted just three passes. It was clear OC Joe Brady was leaning into the power run game the Bills tried to establish down the stretch last season, but it wasn't working.

Then Allen took over.

He finished with four touchdowns, two each throwing and running, and did everything for Buffalo, as is usually the case. The Bills allowed 28 to the Cardinals, but Allen was too much anyway. Buffalo finished with over six yards per play and the offense was only really stopped twice outside of a fumble.

This is still the Allen show, for better and for worse — and he already had a big wrap on his non-throwing hand by the end of the first game. Buckle up. It's gonna be a long season.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Carolina Panthers

Overreaction: ABANDON PANTHERS ISLAND[!!

Well, that was not an ideal start to our Panthers +1300 worst-to-first division bets.

The Panthers gave up a bomb to Rashid Shaheed before you even settled into your Sunday afternoon La-Z-Boy, Bryce Young threw an interception on his first throw of the season, and the rout was on.

The Saints won 47-10, and the score wasn't even that close. Derek Carr had his best game in a Saints uniform, unfettered by Carolina's defense, and the Panthers lost their best defender, DT Derrick Brown, for the season.

Most worrying, Bryce Young and the Carolina offense were awful. Young completed just 13-of-30 passes and threw two picks, and the way he was utilized didn't even make sense. His 12.4 aDOT ranked second in the NFL, with a terrible -15 CPOE, so why are you chucking deep all game for a QB whose best skill is short, accurate passes?

The Panthers finished with under 200 yards and went 1-of-10 on third down. It was an abject failure.

Sometimes with island long shots, it's worth digging in our heels, like we did with the Texans last year when they started 0-2 but had good underlying signals. This is not one of those times. I'm abandoning Panthers Island and never looking back.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Chicago Bears

Overreaction: Caleb Williams stinks!! Wait, Caleb Williams is undefeated, 1-0 baby!!

The Bears went down 17-0, then came back and won anyway, thanks mostly to a pair of touchdowns by the special teams and defense.

It was a real roller coaster ride for Bears fans, and so was Caleb Williams. There were a few flashes and big-armed throws, but Williams mostly looked tentative in his decision-making and was wildly inaccurate all game.

The Bears finished 2-of-13 on third down with only 148 yards, an ugly 2.8 yards per play. Williams completed under half of his 29 passes for just 93 yards.

But Williams also didn't turn the ball over, and he took only two sacks despite near constant pressure. Though he wasn't the reason the Bears won by any stretch, he also wasn't the reason Chicago lost, breaking any number of trends against No. 1 pick QBs making their NFL debut.

Williams isn't a franchise hero just because he's 1-0, but he's also not as bad as he looked. The truth is somewhere in between, and that's probably okay for Bears fans for now.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Cincinnati Bengals

Overreaction: Uh oh, here we go again with the early-season Bengals woes!!

Ja'Marr Chase played, but the rest of the team sat out in his honor and the Bengals lost ostensibly their easiest game of the season in disastrous fashion, 16-10 with nary a peep from the offense.

It's an all-too-familiar feeling for Cincinnati, which started 0-2 each of the past two seasons, and Joe Burrow is now just 2-7 ATS in his career in the first two games of a season. Burrow had an ugly 5.6 aDOT and was terrible on late downs, so is that injury still bugging him or was it a fault offensive line or no Tee Higgins or something worse?

Whatever it is, this was likely the easiest game on the schedule for Cincinnati, at home facing a debut head coach for a team expected to contend for the No. 1 pick. That's a full 0.8 expected wins off the team's expectation, and we've seen this from the Bengals before. Even when they get going late, this early hole is too much to overcome.

Up next for Cincinnati is a trip to Kansas City, so the Bengals are staring 0-2 in the face once again. I bet the Bengals to miss the playoffs at +210 before the season, but they're still +125 at BetMGM. Unless you think they go to Arrowhead and win, that's probably a minus number one week from now, with plus odds to make and a chance to immediately hedge out for profit before games against the Commanders and Panthers.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Cleveland Browns

Overreaction: Deshaun Watson is absolutely C-O-O-K-E-D!!

There's just no sugarcoating it anymore: Deshaun Watson doesn't even look like an NFL quarterback, let alone a franchise QB worth $230 million.

Watson completed less than half of his 45 passes, threw two interceptions and ate a league-high six sacks. He looks uncomfortable out there, and Cleveland's entire offense managed just 118 yards and 2.4 yards per play until two meaningless garbage-time drives.

It was easy enough to explain away Watson's failures the last two Cleveland seasons — once fighting a throwing shoulder injury, once returning to football midseason after two years away. We're out of excuses at this point.

Sure, the line is in flux and Dallas has a talented defense, but Cleveland is out of time.

If things don't go well in Jacksonville, we are officially on Jameis Winston watch. The Browns played great defense despite Watson, and they play the Giants, Raiders and Commanders after Week 2. There's still time to pull the plug on Watson and salvage the season.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Denver Broncos

Overreaction: Bo Nix might not be an NFL quarterback!!

A weird first half against Seattle punctuated by not one but two Denver safeties meant false hope early, but the Broncos offense never found its second gear.

Denver was gifted any number of chances with field position and Seattle mistakes, but the offense turned it over three times and settled for just 3.3 yards per play.

Nix threw 42 times with the run game going nowhere, and he managed just 138 yards, an anemic 3.3 yards per attempt. He and the offense were an ugly 5-of-18 converting third downs, and Nix did most of his "damage" on short passes to the flanks. He threw only 12 passes over 10 air yards and completed two to each team.

That's not going to cut it in the NFL, and remember, the Seahawks were poor defensively last year. Nix was supposed to be accurate at the very least, but he finished -5 CPOE even with his short aDOT passes all night. It's probably too soon to bury the rookie after one NFL game, but it's not like we didn't have 61 college games telling us the same thing.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Dallas Cowboys

Overreaction: Dak is back, CeeDee is rich, and the Cowboys are rolling once again!!

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys stole the headlines heading into Week 1 with a fat four-year $240-million contract extension, at last, for their deserving franchise QB. Add that to the recent CeeDee Lamb contract, and maybe America's Team can finally put all that offseason buzz to bed after a comfortable 33-17 win over the Browns.

It was a comfortable win, and credit Mike Zimmer's defense for making Deshaun Watson look so bad, but the Cowboys offense wasn't exactly good at 4-of-14 on third downs with just 15 first downs.

Dallas also lost TE Jake Ferguson, its No. 2 receiver really, for the foreseeable future and is already without star CB DaRon Bland. The Cowboys are paying their stars finally, and correctly so, but it's a top-heavy roster and these are big names already out early.

Dallas is already running out of weapons outside of Lamb with a pretty tough slate of defenses up over the next six weeks, including games against the Saints, Ravens, Steelers, Lions and 49ers.

The Cowboys don't get extra credit for signing extensions every team would've signed, nor much for accepting the gift that Watson gave them. Dallas still has plenty to prove and is racking up big injuries early.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Detroit Lions

Overreaction: The Lions will coast to an NFC North title with the Jordan Love injury!!

So far, it feels like everything's coming up Lions.

Detroit got a bunch of injury luck with the Rams missing their top three tackles and then Puka Nacua for most of the game, and that after the news that their top division rival's franchise QB is likely out for at least a month.

The Lions shouldn't get too far ahead of themselves, though. They blew a 17-3 lead against a team with zero blocking and one receiver and needed a late field goal and another piece of luck by way of a coin flip to steal back in overtime a game they had no business losing.

Credit Detroit for getting the job done, but Sunday night proved this won't be easy. The Lions will get every team's best shots, and Minnesota and Chicago also won coin-flip games Sunday and look frisky. Job's only just begun.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Green Bay Packers

Overreaction: Green Bay's season is DOOMED with the Jordan Love injury!!

It was a sloppy season opener in Brazil, both the field conditions and Green Bay's play, with plenty to question about the Packers' coaching decisions, the remade defense, and a shaky, inaccurate game from Jordan Love.

Green Bay was gifted a pair of deep turnovers early with a chance to play from the front foot and failed to take advantage, and their comeback attempt late ended in disaster when Love went down with a heap with what looked like an ankle or knee injury.

Love has since been diagnosed with a sprained MCL — probably close to a best-case outcome, all things considered — but his absence for even three-to-six weeks remains devastating. Malik Willis was just added a week ago and immediately becomes the worst starting QB in the NFL.

The downgrade from Love to Willis moves Green Bay from No. 3 to No. 23 in my offense rankings and from 12th to 24th overall. Think of it as replacing the Bills or Dolphins offense with the Bucs or Saints. Seems bad.

It's too soon to know if Green Bay's season is doomed until we know how long Love is out, but it won't be easy these next few weeks against the Colts, Titans and Vikings with Willis instead of Love. Green Bay could quickly build a hole it's unable to get out of later.

I've only got five NFC teams in my top 17 now. This could blow one of the NFC Wild Card spots wide open — with the Bears, Falcons, Vikings and Saints just outside that tier. If you like an NFC playoff sleeper, this is your chance.

The Packers are now -186 to miss the playoffs at BetMGM. That feels aggressive, but FTN has them just 29% to make the postseason.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL… yet

Houston Texans

Overreaction: Uhhh, the Texans can run the ball now too?!!

Houston hung on late for a big road division win against the Colts, 29-27, and C.J. Stroud and Stefon Diggs got most of the headlines. But it was Houston's run game, not its passing game, that caught my attention.

The Texans rushing attack was anemic a year ago, but OC Bobby Slowik stayed over-committed all the way. That was especially true on early downs, often digging Stroud and the passing game a big hole by third down.

The Texans passed early more often Sunday but when they did run the ball, they were outstanding. Joe Mixon ran 30 times for 159 yards and a score and helped run out the clock late, and that over five yards a carry came against a terrific defensive front four and what should be a pretty good Indianapolis run defense.

Houston began 16 series with a run on Sunday and converted all but one of those into a first down, a 94% Success Rate. Last season we saw Mike McDaniel's offense take a big leap with its rushing metrics in year two of his Shanahan-style attack. Could Slowik and the Texans be up next?

Joe Mixon dropped from +3000 to +1200 for the rushing crowd after Week 1.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Indianapolis Colts

Overreaction: Anthony Richardson is here, and he is spectacular!!

The internet was buzzing after Richardson unleashed an off-platform 65-yards-in-the-air dime TD to Alec Pierce, and it's not hard to see why.

You can count on one hand the number of players in the NFL history capable of making that pass, and you might not even need all your fingers. Richardson also had another 57-yard pass to Pierce, a 54-yarder to Ashton Dulin, a 19-yard scramble and a powerful fourth-down TD run.

The Colts look like a top-five League Pass team — every play is either a disaster or a monster play waiting to happen, but this is no way to win a football game. Outside of those three huge passes, Richardson went 6-of-16 for just 41 yards, a minuscule 2.6 yards per attempt.

Richardson finished the game with an outrageous 16.4 aDOT and a -14 CPOE, repeatedly dialing up the potential big play but failing to move the Colts down the field like an NFL offense, especially with Jonathan Taylor's 3.0 yards per carry. This is reminiscent of what we saw from Will Levis last season. NFL teams need singles too, not just home runs. Richardson's flashes are out of this world, but the Colts need down-to-down production too.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Jacksonville Jaguars

Overreaction: The Jaguars had this one but totally gave it away!!

On the one hand, yes, Jacksonville blew it.

One second, Travis Etienne was a yard away from the endzone and a 24-7 Jacksonville lead; the next, he was getting the ball punched out and Miami went 80 yards to Tyreek Hill the following play to make it 17-14. The Jags compounded the problem by going for it on fourth-and-short deep in their territory one possession later, turned it over, and never really recovered.

But did Jacksonville really have it?

The Jaguars were outgained by 133 yards, and the offensive line had a disastrous outing. Trevor Lawrence faced the top pressure rate in the NFL in Week 1, despite his quick time to throw and despite Miami's top two pass rushers both starting the season on injured reserve.

This isn't the first time the Dolphins came back from down big. The underlying numbers suggest Jacksonville was lucky to be up so much in the first place.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT TOTALLY REAL

Kansas City Chiefs

Overreaction: Oh no, we let the Chiefs get real receivers now too?!!

The Chiefs won by an inch but always felt in control, and the offense moved the ball well most of the night and looked much more comfortable than it ever did last season.

First-round draft pick Xavier Worthy pops. There's speed and then there's Tyreek Hill speed, and Worthy looked like the latter with two long TDs just running past the best athletes on earth. The Chiefs also appear to have built the entire offense out of Rashee Rice, seemingly constantly open underneath in the middle of the field for Mahomes.

It's telling that Travis Kelce was barely even part of the action. The Chiefs are so good they can put Kelce in bubble wrap until January. Kansas City averaged 7.1 yards per play and Mahomes was right back to 0.42 EPA per play.

The rich get even richer in Kansas City. Look out.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Las Vegas Raiders

Overreaction: Antonio Pierce and this Raiders staff may not be up for the task!!

Las Vegas's game against the Chargers barely qualified as modern football. Neither team had 60 plays, and they combined to go 9-of-29 on third down.

But it was especially bleak for the Raiders, who continue to play overly conservative football, much like they did under Pierce when he was the interim coach to end last season.

The Raiders leaned run-heavy but ran 22 times for just 71 yards against a defense that's been awful against the run for years. They had a harrowing 16% Success Rate with just one first down. Gardner Minshew's 4.6 aDOT ranked dead last in the NFL, too.

Despite that failure, the Raiders were down just six points on fourth-and-1 on the Chargers' 43 with 7:15 left … and punted. Per ESPN Analytics, the Raiders sacrificed 10.7% of win probability on bad fourth-down decisions alone. This team faces way too much of a talent deficit to give away huge winning edges like that.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Los Angeles Chargers

Overreaction: Jim Harbaugh has fixed the Chargers offense!!

Settle down, the Chargers won a home game against a bad Raiders roster that was being coached like it's the 1920s.

The Chargers did finally run the ball well as expected under Harbaugh. JK Dobbins exploded for a long 61-yard run and finished with 135 yards and a score, and the Chargers ran 27 times for 176 yards, still an impressive 4.4 yards per carry even without that long carry.

This team hasn't run the ball well in ages, but the Raiders run defense isn't great, and Justin Herbert still posted a -0.16 EPA per play with a blah 6.2 aDOT. This was not an impressive offensive performance by the Chargers. It's nice to see them run the ball for once, but let's not pretend this was a modern offensive attack.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Los Angeles Rams

Overreaction: Matt Stafford and Cooper Kupp can do this all on their own!!

Stafford and Kupp nearly beat the Lions all by themselves on Sunday night.

The Rams entered the night missing both starting offensive tackles, then lost swing tackle Joe Noteboom and star sophomore WR Puka Nacua. No worries! Kupp caught 14 passes for 110 yards and what looked like the winning score late on 21 targets, and Stafford threw 49 times for 317 yards, pulling out the whole arsenal of no-look and off-angle throws to shred the Lions secondary.

Stafford and Kupp led the Rams on a 17-point comeback and took the lead late — heck, they might've won if they'd won the toss in overtime — but even two superheroes weren't enough to save the Rams. That's troubling for a team that's rapidly racking up offensive injuries and lacking much talent on defense.

The Rams were my biggest fade in the NFL entering the season. L.A. was much better than I gave them credit for Sunday night but lost anyway, and now it'll be worse the next few weeks with these injuries mounting. The Rams are still -120 to miss the playoffs at BetMGM but as high as -215 at FanDuel, an odd pricing discrepancy.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Miami Dolphins

Overreaction: The Dolphins should be worried the offense didn't look quite right Week 1!!

It was a weird start to the season for Miami — and that was before the season even started.

Tyreek Hill was detained on his way to the stadium Sunday for speeding, along with new teammate DT Calais Campbell, and then Jaylen Waddle missed a chunk of the first half getting checked for concussion symptoms.

Miami was one yard away from going down 24-7 and needed a huge mid-game swing (see Jacksonville section) to get the win, but it's tough to panic just yet. Even with the odd circumstances and a struggling run game, the Dolphins still got 100-yard games from all three of Hill, Waddle and De'Von Achane.

Credit Miami for winning despite the distractions and difficult heat, along with a crucial late missed field goal, though it's worth noting the troubles with the offensive line. It felt like Tua Tagovailoa never really got into a rhythm against that Jaguars pass rush, and that could turn into a real problem moving forward.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Minnesota Vikings

Overreaction: Sam Darnold and the Vikings are bonafide playoff contenders!

Minnesota made like its governor and waltzed its way to a sleepy 28-6 victory over the Giants Sunday.

Sam Darnold started his Vikings career a perfect 12-of-12 as a passer and found Justin Jefferson early and often, including a score and a long connection, and Brian Flores's defense had Daniel Jones in a blender all game with five sacks and a pick-six by Andrew Van Ginkel.

Come on, though — this is the Giants. Jones is never good under pressure, the G-Men added 95 penalty yards and New York is stout up front defensively but has maybe the worst secondary in football. Let's see Darnold and the Vikings do it against a real opponent before we get too excited, but credit for taking care of business on the road.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

New England Patriots

Overreaction: New England's defense can carry the team, even without Belichick!!

The Patriots defense certainly did its job on Sunday. New England shut down Cincinnati's run game and made Joe Burrow uncomfortable all game, and it held a possible Super Bowl contender to 10 points at home.

Jerod Mayo's unit can only play the opponent in front of them, but let's not pretend this was the best the Bengals had to offer. Tee Higgins was out injured, and Ja'Marr Chase was a late decision and didn't get any training camp time in. Burrow is reportedly still dealing with an injury himself, and the Bengals offensive line is banged up.

Cincinnati's early-season woes are well documented at this point, and the Patriots offense was about as lifeless as expected against a defense that's not expected to be very good.

Sunday was more about the Bengals than the Patriots.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

New Orleans Saints

Overreaction: The Saints are serious playoff contenders after that drubbing of the Panthers!!

It was 30-0 before it even got to halftime, and New Orleans made mincemeat of Carolina's offense and made Bryce Young look like his rookie self. The Saints defense has been good under Dennis Allen, but the offense was the bigger story. New OC Klint Kubiak's unit paid off dividends immediately.

The Saints used motion on 85% of all dropbacks in Week 1, the highest in the NFL, and Carr threw 39% of his passes out of playaction, his highest total since joining the Saints. That's just making life easier on the quarterback, and it bodes well for this Carr-Kubiak partnership.

But can we let the Saints play a real NFL team before crowning them? The Panthers looked embarrassed, and life is about to get more difficult in a hurry for the Saints.

Up next for the Saints are the Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons and Chiefs. New Orleans will be obvious underdogs in three of those games, and the fourth in Atlanta likely ends up that way, too.

This is a great chance to sell high on New Orleans after a good win by playing the Saints' odds to miss the playoffs at -138 (FanDuel). That number will move dramatically if the team falls from 1-0 to 2-3 or 1-4 a month from now, and it may never be this short again.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

New York Giants

Overreaction: The Giants' play was as ugly as their throwback uniforms!!

That was really ugly — both New York's play and the outfit the team decided to open the season in.

The Giants finished the game at 3.5 yards per play. They went 0-for-3 in the red zone. Daniel Jones was sacked five times and threw two interceptions, completing barely half his passes with a terrible -0.41 EPA per play. The defense got lit up by Sam Darnold. It was bad all around.

This was as ugly as it quite literally looked for the Giants. And if New York doesn't figure things out against the Commanders this week, it could get ugly for Brian Daboll and the coaching staff soon too. You can't go down 0-2 with the Browns, Cowboys, Seahawks, Bengals, and Eagles up next.

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

New York Jets

Overreaction: So much for all that offseason Aaron Rodgers hype!!

We waited a long time to see Aaron Rodgers complete a pass in a Jets uniform and got two full offseasons of hype, then got quite the dud in New York's season opener. The 49ers more than doubled up the Jets in yardage before garbage time and Rodgers completed a meager 13 passes as the Jets left fans and bettors alike feeling disappointed.

Was it really Rodgers's fault, though? The Jets offense had only 49 plays, and Rodgers looked mostly himself. He showed excellent timing and chemistry with Garrett Wilson on several throws, led an outstanding touchdown drive early, and even pulled the ol' free play bomb to old friend Allen Lazard for a big touchdown.

Rodgers ate one sack and had a tipped interception, and his accuracy was a touch off a few times, but he was mostly good — galaxies better than Kirk Cousins's return from a similar injury yesterday, and much better than anyone might have hoped for from Rodgers after two years without football.

Monday night wasn't a failure by Rodgers — it was everything else from the Jets that came up short.

Breece Hall averaged 3.4 yards per carry and committed a costly fumble early in the game. Mostly, it was a complete failure by a normally great defense that couldn't get any pressure on the QB and straight up forgot how to tackle. Even without Christian McCaffrey, the Jets simply had no answers for the 49ers, allowing scores on eight straight possessions to end the game.

I bet Rodgers to win MVP before the season, and I like my bet even better after Monday night. We already know the Jets defense is good, and they'll have better days than this. Rodgers looks healthy and good, and I'll be adding to my MVP position if Rodgers's odds dip to +2500 or beyond again after re-opening.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Philadelphia Eagles

Overreaction: This Eagles offense looks better than ever with Saquon Barkley and Kellen Moore!!

It was a slippery, sloppy game in Brazil, but the Eagles came away with the win and put up 34 points, despite a couple of ugly turnovers by Jalen Hurts on the first two drives.

The Eagles chewed up 11 plays for a 70-yard TD drive, nine plays for another 70-yard TD drive, then 15 plays for 57 for a field goal. They bled the clock for 16 plays and 67 yards to salt away the game with another field goal late.

Saquon Barkley was spectacular in his Philly debut. He had 132 yards combined and found the endzone three times, moving all over the field as a weapon, and new OC Kellen Moore was in his bag. Philadelphia used motion on 48-of-73 plays, 66% of them almost double where Philly was at 35% last season, which had ranked dead last per Next Gen Stats.

This is a more modern, sophisticated attack — but it remains to be seen if Jalen Hurts is up to the challenge. Hurts made questionable decisions all game. He fumbled twice and threw two picks. One of them was his very first deep pass, after going 3-of-19 with four picks on deep balls his final six games last season, and he was 0-for-3 throwing to the middle of the field, where both his interceptions came.

Hurts also ran for just 33 yards on 13 carries, an inefficient output where that's supposed to be his calling card.

Kellen Moore's offense gave Philadelphia a much better chance, and the Eagles weapons looked great, but it remains to be seen whether Jalen Hurts is the right on-field conductor to get the job done.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Pittsburgh Steelers

Overreaction: Same old Steelers, then!!

Of course, the Steelers won a game 18-10 with six field goals and a bunch of defense. Of course, they're one of two teams to win in Week 1 without an offensive touchdown for the first time since 2006 along the Bears. Of course, the Steelers are 1-0 alone atop the AFC North, just like we all expected.

Pittsburgh is all defense, no offense — the same formula the team has used for seemingly decades now under Mike Tomlin. T.J. Watt was absolutely everywhere. He lived in the backfield and officially finished with one sack, three QB hits and two tackles for a loss, though he had two more strip sacks taken away by penalties.

The Steelers made Kirk Cousins's life miserable, and thank goodness because the offense offered precious little. Justin Fields got the start with Russell Wilson's late calf injury and didn't offer much, throwing for 156 yards and adding 57 on 14 carries on the ground. Najee Harris and the ground game never got going under Arthur Smith.

We already know Pittsburgh can defend. When will this team find some offense?

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

San Francisco 49ers

Overreaction: The 49ers are an absolute wagon!!

There were plenty of questions about the 49ers coming into Monday night. How much would Trent Williams play? Would Brandon Aiyuk be ready? How would the team respond to so much offseason uncertainty? Would the 49ers fall victim to the Super Bowl loser's curse?

Not many questions left after that drubbing.

Despite a late scratch from Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers offense didn't miss a beat. Jordan Mason stepped in and had a monster night with 28 carries for 147 yards and a score, showing just how devastating this Kyle Shanahan system is regardless of the runner. San Francisco's real MVP, Trent Williams, played every meaningful snap. The line held up, and Brock Purdy was surgical like usual getting the ball to his vast array of open weapons.

This is a Jets defense that's played great football two straight seasons, and the 49ers were missing McCaffrey with very little training camp chemistry work and just mauled the Jets. The defense bent but mostly did its job, and the offense scored on eight straight possessions to end the game.

The Chiefs are widely accepted as clear favorites in the AFC. After Monday night, it's pretty clear the 49ers should be considered just as much of a favorite in the NFC. Could we be headed for a rematch?

Overreaction Verdict: REAL

Seattle Seahawks

Overreaction: It could be a rocky transition into the post-Pete Carroll era in Seattle!!

It was a truly weird first half for the Seahawks. A bad Geno Smith decision on the second play gifted the Broncos a turnover and quick 3-0 lead, and Seattle never really got on the front foot again the rest of the half.

The Seahawks faced 1st-and-15 and 1st-and-17 the next two drives before going three-and-out. They somehow started two drives on their own one-yard-line, both turning into a safety, and they also muffed a punt for a turnover.

Despite all that, Seattle got the ball in normal conditions twice and scored 10 points on those two drives to hang in there, and then once the Seahawks got out of the shadow of their own end zone in the second half, they got comfortable quickly and looked fine. The final score was not indicative of how easily Seattle pulled away.

Seattle held Denver to 3.3 yards per play, and the defense repeatedly bailed the team out despite playing with its backs against the wall. It held the Broncos to one-of-four in the red zone and forced three turnovers, the Mike Macdonald effect.

This is a team I was really high on entering the season and, despite an entire half of terrible circumstances, Seattle looked the part. I still love their playoff chances at +144 (BetRivers), even more so now with the big injuries to the Packers and Rams opening the NFC doors wide open.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overreaction: The Bucs are headed for a fourth consecutive division title!!

Tampa Bay put up a big, crooked number on Sunday, hanging 37 on the Commanders as Baker Mayfield played the best game of his career. He completed 24-of-30 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, two of which were to Mike Evans.

Mayfield was great but got a lot of help from his receivers — and the Washington defense. His throws weren't even too aggressive downfield at 4.7 aDOT, so a lot of this was just the Commanders not making tackles in what was expected to be a weak pass defense.

The Bucs still can't run the ball at all, with Rachaad White an ugly 15 carries for 31 yards a familiar sight. A lot of this game simply came down to third-down conversion, where the Bucs were an outlier 9-of-13 compared to 2-of-8 for Washington. That continues a trend that went Tampa Bay's way last season, but it's typically not sustainable.

Tampa Bay also benefited from two missed Washington field goals while making a 56-yarder itself. This was still a nine-point game entering the fourth quarter before getting away from Washington. Be careful about getting too excited about a closer-than-it-looked home game against a rookie QB making his NFL debut.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Tennessee Titans

Overreaction: If the Titans blow a 17-0 lead to the Bears, it's gonna be a long season in Tennessee!!

On the one hand, it's not pretty blowing a 17-0 lead to anyone, let alone a team debuting a rookie QB and one that fails to score an offensive touchdown all game. And there's certainly plenty for the Titans to work on.

Will Levis fell apart in the second half. He finished the game with two interceptions and a fumble plus three sacks, and his inexplicable pick-six trying to throw the ball away from his knees pretty much single-handedly cost his team the game. Add in a blocked punt special teams TD allowed, and it wasn't great.

But look at the flip side of the coin, too.

The Titans brought in a ton of new names on defense and debuted a new system, and the early returns for DC Dennard Wilson's unit were pretty great. They held the Bears to just 11 first downs and 148 yards on under three yards a play and were especially stout on third down, with Chicago just 2-of-13.

The Titans defense was flying around all game, and the offense showed signs of life early, too. The offensive line looked greatly improved under Bill Callahan, and Tony Pollard had a nice game at 16 carries for 82 yards and a score. And as bad as Levis was late, he looked much better in the first half, making better decisions and quicker throwaways and hitting some short passes.

The Titans have a pretty brutal opening seven games that include the Jets, Dolphins, Bills and Lions, but Tennessee has my attention. If the Titans can weather the storm early, I think this team could make some noise. I'm not playing Titans futures yet since the price will likely go down more before it goes up, but Tennessee has my attention.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL

Washington Commanders

Overreaction: The Commanders might as well already start thinking about next season!!

It wasn't as bad as it looked for Washington.

The offense actually moved the ball relatively well much of the game — 20 points on the road against a tough defense is nothing to sneeze at when you're debuting a rookie QB on the road, and that's with two missed field goals, too.

Jayden Daniels was really good as a runner, tallying 88 yards on 16 carries and finding the endzone twice. He also threw for 184 yards and had just two sacks and no turnovers. He was easily the most impressive rookie QB of the day, a positive sign for this team moving forward.

Washington's pass defense got gouged, but the run D was good and the offense showed signs of things to build on. The Commanders actually weren't all that bad on Sunday, despite the final score of 37-20.

Overreaction Verdict: NOT REAL