Every week of the 2022 NFL season, we’ll recap how our NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
In case you haven’t seen — or as a reminder if you have — we’re reframing the discussion around bad beats, so be sure to check out the science behind our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
Let’s take a look at Week 10.
NFL Luck Rankings: Week 10 Results
Prior to Monday Night Football, our luck rankings have covered 117 games, including 60 games where teams had a large discrepancy in luck.
In Week 10, the unluckier team only went 5-8 against the spread (ATS) when looking at closing lines. That includes a 2-5 record ATS when looking at teams that have a luck ranking 10 or more places worse than their opponent.
For the season as a whole, if we apply the 10-plus luck difference filter, the unlucky team is 33-27 ATS (55.0%). That improves to 18-13 ATS (58.1%) when the luck ranking difference is 16 or more places apart.
Week 9’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Eagles and Commanders has a difference of 10 places. That puts it into the 55% bucket of games where the unlucky team covers the spread.
Top NFL Bad Beats of Week 10
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed
1. Houston Texans (+5)
- Actual Result: Giants 24, Texans 16
- Expected Score: Texans 24, Giants 20
- Swing: 12 points, 38.6% win probability
The Texans were moderately unlucky against the Giants in Week 10, playing like a team that should have won about 62% of the time but only winning by a scoreline with a Pythagorean Expectation of just under 24%.
The Texans two turnovers were incredibly costly. The first saw Houston get inside the Giants' 10 before Dameon Pierce fumbled the ball away.
The very next possession, Brandon Cooks caught a 19-yard touchdown, only for it to be nullified by a holding penalty. Davis Mills threw an interception one play later.
The next two drives Houston again got in the red zone, only to settle for two field goals.
2. Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5)
- Actual Result: Colts 25, Raiders 20
- Expected Score: Raiders 19, Colts 17
- Swing: 7 points, 26% win probability
Las Vegas suffered the second-worst beat of Week 10 thanks to a bit of fortune for the Colts.
The main culprit was Jonathan Taylor's 66-yard touchdown run. Long TDs aren't expected to happen, so when they do they come in over expectation by definition.
That play alone nearly fully makes up the bulk of the Colts' offensive luck. The Raiders, on the other hand, came in right around expectation offensively.
3. Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
- Actual Result: Vikings 33, Bills 30
- Expected Score: Bills 37, Vikings 31
- Swing: 9 points, 22.3% win probability
Losing in overtime is pretty unlucky itself, but is especially brutal when you were arguably the better team.
That's the case for Buffalo, who cost themselves the game thanks to a minus-2 turnover differential.
In fact, the Vikings recovered all four fumbles in the game, marking a big swing in their favor in luck on that metric alone.
The costliest play for the Bills? That would be the Eric Kendricks fumble recovery while Buffalo had a four-point lead and possession of the ball with less than a minute in regulation.
