In Week 9, favorites went 14-1 straight up, with just the Saints and Dennis Allen losing outright. New Orleans subsequently fired Allen ahead of Week 10, which leads to many different spots this week.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know. Here's Week 10 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Nov. 6, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk Back
Favorites On Great Run
NFL favorites finished 14-1 straight up in Week 9. This is just the third week over the last 15 years when favorites won 14+ games SU with just one loss.
In Week 9, favorites were 10-5 ATS, while they are 46-27-1 ATS (63%) over the last five weeks.
Rookie Leap
Favorites Undefeated
Through nine weeks, Rookie QBs are 17-16 SU and 20-12-1 ATS. Last year, rookie QBs went 34-36-2 ATS over the full season.
This year, rookie QBs are 11-0 ATS when listed as a favorite and 9-12-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
In his early career, Jayden Daniels is 7-1-1 ATS through nine starts, including 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. He’s the first QB to start his career 5-0 ATS as a favorite since 2000.
Cover City
Goff, Campbell Helping Bettors
One of the best cover runs of all-time continues. The Lions are now 40-15 ATS (72.7%) over their last 55 games since the middle of the 2021 season.
Talk about coming through for your bettors. Goff is 4-0 ATS this season as the public side. He’s 14-2 ATS last two seasons and 21-4 ATS last three years when listed as the public side.
Road Domination
Pack It Up
Favorites away from home – road or neutral – are 33-18-2 ATS this season, the best season through nine weeks in the last 20 years. In fact, only one other year in that span even finished a season more than 3 games above .500 ATS in this spot. Since Week 5, road favorites are 24-9 ATS.
Overall, road teams are 74-57-3 ATS (57%) this season — which would be the 2nd-highest ATS win pct for road teams over a full season in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Dennis The Menace
Saints March On
Dennis Allen's 9-18-1 record ATS in his career as a favorite is the worst mark of any head coach in the last 30 years.
Allen has coached five seasons in the NFL — his teams are 0-5 to their preseason win total over & on their way to 0-6.
2-0 under w/ Saints (2022-23)
3-0 under w/ Raiders (2012-14)
39 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-22 straight up (SU) and 22-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing.
Those teams had a 102-263-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 135-227-5 ATS (37.3%) record prior to the coaching change.
Caution Ahead
Not How You Win
Passing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yds or fewer are 61-56-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.
Plugged In
Chargers Defense
Chargers are 7-1 to the under in the full-game total this season, going under the total by 7.7 PPG. Since the start of last season, the under is 19-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 28-14-1 in games he coaches with the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 17-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 17-2 to the under in his last 19 starts.
Up, Up, and Away
High TNF Totals
We have a high TNF total this week. Totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003. We haven’t had a total close 53 or higher on TNF since 2021 – Chargers vs. Chiefs, closed at 54.
Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog of 3 pts or more 19 times in his career. He is 9-9-1 SU and 16-3 ATS. Last 20 years, Burrow is the 3rd-most profitable QB ATS in this spot behind Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater.
Every NFL Game For Week 10
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➤Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 18-5 SU (78.3%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Lamar Jackson: 18-5 SU
Steve Young: 23-7 SU
Ken Stabler: 15-5-1 SU
Joe Montana: 22-8 SU
Of note, Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs.
➤We have a high TNF total this week. Totals of 52+ on Thursday Night Football are 14-5-1 to the under since 2003.
We haven’t had a total close at 53 or higher on TNF since 2021 – Chargers vs. Chiefs, closed at 54.
Burrow has played three career games as an underdog with a total above 50 – he is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games.
➤Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog of 3 pts or more 19 times in his career. He is 9-9-1 SU and 16-3 ATS. Last 20 years, Burrow is the 3rd-most profitable QB ATS in this spot behind Drew Brees and Teddy Bridgewater.
As an underdog in night games, Burrow is 0-5 SU but 3-2 ATS.
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 42-25-1 (63%) against the second-half spread. He's 8-11 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
He is 31-15-1 2H ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents and only 11-10 2H ATS vs. AFC North.
➤In the first six weeks of the season, Joe Burrow was 10-20 passing 20+ yds downfield, the 4th-ranked passer downfield according to PFF. In the last three weeks against the Browns, Eagles, and Raiders, Burrow is 1-12 passing deep, 0 TD, and an INT, the 4th-worst ranked passer downfield.
➤Burrow has faced Lamar Jackson six times in their careers. Jackson holds the SU advantage 5-1 and is 4-2 ATS vs. Burrow.
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They are 46-31 ATS (60%) since 2018, best of any division, .500 ATS or better in seven straight seasons, and 24-16 ATS since 2021.
➤Over the past four seasons, Jackson is 7-1 ATS as a dog, but 20-22-1 ATS as a favorite, including 9-19-1 ATS when favored by more than three points. Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Lamar has only covered back-to-back games as a favorite of more than three points once in 29 starts, and he hasn’t done it at home since Dec. 2020.
As either a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, Jackson is 18-4 ATS in that timespan and 25-5 ATS in his career in the regular season.
➤Ravens won the 1H SU and ATS vs. the Broncos. Overall, Jackson is 56-34-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 262 QBs.
2024: 5-4 1H ATS
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
➤In Lamar Jackson’s career, he is 0-4 ATS vs. Steelers and 12-9 ATS vs. Browns and Bengals – 6-5 ATS vs. Cleveland and 6-4 ATS vs. Bengals.
Against Cincinnati, he is 4-0 ATS on the road and 2-4 ATS at home.
➤The streak has ended for the Giants. New York will be listed as a favorite vs. Panthers this week, breaking a 24-game streak being listed as an underdog, the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Panthers, who are now at 30 straight games.
New York was last favored in Week 2 of last season against the Cardinals before this week.
➤A few facts and trends from the 48 total international games:
The under has a small edge at 25-23. Here's a breakdown by stadium:
Wembley: 14-12 to the under
Twickenham: 2-1 to the under
Allianz: 1-0 to the under
Corinthians: 1-0 to the over
Deutsch Bank Park: 2-0 to the under
Azteca: 3-2 to the over
Tottenham: 6-4 to the over
Favorites have excelled in international games. They are 36-11-1 SU and 32-16 ATS. Favorites at Wembley Stadium are 19-6-1 SU, best of any International Series stadium.
Bigger public sides have actually had success in overseas matchups.
60%+: 20-16 ATS
66%+: 14-10 ATS
70%+: 8-3 ATS
Favorites of a field goal or more overseas are 26-7-1 SU, 22-12 ATS.
➤This will be the 5th international matchup of two “terrible” teams – 25% SU win pct or less.
2024 Jaguars -7 vs. Patriots, JAC 32-16
2021 Dolphins -2.5 vs. Jaguars, JAC 23-20
2021 Falcons -3 vs. Jets, ATL 27-20
2013 Steelers -3 vs. Vikings, MIN 34-27
➤This will be Daniel Jones’ second international start. He won 27-22 over the Packers as a 9.5-pt underdog – the biggest upset in the history of the International Series.
If Jones beats Carolina, here is a list of QBs 2-0 SU or better in International play: Jared Goff, Eli Manning, Patrick Mahomes, Alex Smith, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees.
➤Overall, the Giants have played three games in international play, they are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS.
Best Records in International Series
Vikings: 4-0 SU
Giants: 3-0 SU
Chiefs: 3-0 SU
➤Panthers have played one international game, in 2019 with Kyle Allen at QB. They beat the Bucs 37-26 as a 2-pt favorite.
➤Dave Canales will be the 18th rookie head coach to take his team overseas for an International Series game.
15 of the previous 17 faced a coach not in his rookie season – the rookie head coaches are actually above .500 SU, going 9-8 SU, including winning five of their last six games SU, three of which listed as underdogs.
➤Daniel Jones has been on a roller coaster in terms of his performance on bounce-backs. Jones is 23-18 ATS in his career after a SU loss. He was 21-10 ATS between 2019-22, but now just 2-8 ATS over the last two seasons.
➤Giants still lead the NFL in sacks with 35, even after not getting to Jayden Daniels last week. Teams to average more than 3 sacks/game in their 8th game or later, after having no sacks in their previous game are just 10-13 SU and 9-14 ATS since 2013.
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➤Caleb Williams has done a good job at keeping the Bears afloat amid mistakes from Eberflus and some overall miscues, but the numbers for Caleb aren’t very pretty.
Of 35 QBs with at least 150 plays, he is 26th in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 23rd in CPOE this season.
➤Caleb has started three games as a favorite this year and he is 3-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 9 PPG.
➤The Bears' recent historic road woes have now been noticed by all. They’ve lost 19 consecutive road games SU on a Sunday. They are 0-4 SU on the road this year and 3-18 SU last three years.
This year, the Bears are 3-0 SU at home; over the last two seasons, Chicago is 8-3 SU at home.
➤The Hail Mary may come back to haunt Chicago. They have the hardest remaining SOS left in the NFL, with their opponents winning 63.2% of games so far, almost 50 pts higher than the team with the second-hardest remaining SOS, Cleveland.
They are +500 to make the playoffs entering this week.
➤This season, Caleb Williams has been sacked 29 times, 3rd-most of any QB in the NFL.
On Sunday, 16 different Cardinals got a pressure vs. Caleb, the most individual players to get a pressure for a defense since 2018. Justin Fields’ 31 sacks in 8 games in 2022 is the only year with a higher mark than Caleb’s 29 in Bears history.
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Rams, Titans, Bucs, Chiefs, and Patriots are all coming off OT games last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 107-140 SU (43%) and 108-136-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
➤The NFC North has continued its domination across the NFL. They are 19-8 ATS vs. teams outside their division this year, including 11-2 ATS at home.
➤The Patriots have had 1st half issues this year. They are 2-7 1H ATS, making Mayo tie for the worst coach in that spot ahead with Dave Canales. The Patriots' only 1H ATS wins have come vs. Dolphins and in their opener vs. Bengals.
Since 2022, they are 16-26-1 1H ATS, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Steelers and Colts.
➤For the 2nd time this season, Patriots will play b2b road games. The first time they did it, they were on extended rest coming off a Thursday night game and lost 30-13 to the 49ers.
➤Bears are just 4-4 SU this year. Teams .500 SU or worse, laying 6 or more are just 117-149-5 ATS (44%) in November and December since 2003.
➤Last week against the Vikings on SNF, the Colts didn’t even enter the red zone with Joe Flacco at QB.
Over the last decade, teams to fail to even have one red zone trip the week prior, are actually 62-45-3 ATS (58%) in their next game.
➤The Colts really had their worst game of offense of the year last week: 6 pts, 0 RZ trips, 13 first downs, 227 yds – all lowest of the year.
➤In Joe Flacco’s last eight starts for both the Colts and Browns, he is 6-2 ATS. In his long career, Flacco has had a problem as a home dog, where he is 5-10 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.7 PPG.
➤As an underdog of 4 pts or more, Flacco is just 1-10 SU since 2020, including 2-20 SU since 2014.
➤The Colts have started the season with each of their games decided by one score (eight points or less) through nine games. Their record is 4-5 SU and their point differential for the season is minus-five. Dating back to last season, Indy’s last 11 games have all been decided by one score.
The Colts have played 18 one-score games under Shane Steichen, Indy is 10-8 SU and 13-5 ATS.
➤Over the last two years, no QB has been more popular to take for bettors than Josh Allen. Including the playoffs, he is just 12-13 ATS as a public side, but his 25 starts as such are the most of any QB.
➤Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. Allen is 34-22-3 ATS on 7 days rest (12th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot). He’s 10-12-1 ATS on short rest and 10-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
➤Allen has started 22 games outside of the EST in his NFL career, he is 14-8 ATS and 6-1 SU in his last seven starts west away from home like he is in Indy this week.
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➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Rams, Titans, Bucs, Chiefs, and Patriots are all coming off OT games last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 107-140 SU (43%) and 108-136-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
For KC and TB, they play on just six days of rest off an OT game on MNF, those teams are just 17-21 SU and 15-23 ATS over the last decade.
➤Even after the loss last week, In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 4-1 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG. Nix is 2-2 ATS at home.
In his career, Sean Payton is 81-59-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
How about at home? The Broncos are 2-2 ATS this year and 9-12 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 21-28 ATS.
➤Payton is 56-38-2 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. Since 2020, Payton is just 12-13 ATS as a 'dog, he was 44-25-2 ATS prior to that.
Payton has only closed +7 or higher 13 times and he is 9-4 ATS in those games.
➤This is the Chiefs' first home game vs. the AFC West this year.
Patrick Mahomes is 12-1 SU, 7-6 ATS vs. Broncos in his career, losing his first game vs. Denver in their last meeting in 2023.
Most would think you would want to back Mahomes looking for revenge after a SU loss vs. the same team, but when he’s -7 or bigger in that revenge spot, he’s just 4-8 ATS in his career.
➤Chiefs have won the AFC West eight consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019. Chiefs are currently -10000 to win the AFC West again.
Longest NFL Division Title Streak NFL History
11 – 2009-19 NE
8 – 2016-23 KC
➤Mahomes will make his 17th start on short rest this week against the Broncos. He’s 10-6 ATS in that spot, winning and covering 6 in a row.
➤Mahomes entered this year 37-23-1 to the under in his home starts throughout his career. This year, he is 3-1 to the over at Arrowhead.
➤Chiefs have now allowed 27 pts or less in 29 consecutive games, matching the 2005 Ravens' streak. Next on the list recently? 2000-02 Eagles at 34 straight.
Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play)
2024: 10th | 2023: 6th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 23rd | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 28th
➤Chiefs have had a 4th quarter turnaround this year. They are 6-2 4Q ATS this year after going 22-37 against the 4Q spread the previous three seasons.
➤The Chiefs are now 4-0 SU in night games this year and since 2022, they are 13-3 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in their next game following a night primetime spot – those games are also 11-5 to the under.
➤39 teams have fired their coach during the regular season since 2003. Those teams have gone 17-22 straight up (SU) and 22-17 against the spread (ATS) in their first game following the firing.
Those teams had a 102-263-3 SU record (28%) prior to the head coaching change. They also compiled a 135-227-5 ATS (37.3%) record prior to the coaching change.
Allen's 9-18-1 record ATS in his career as a favorite is the worst mark of any head coach in the last 30 years.
Allen has coached five seasons in the NFL — his teams are 0-5 to their preseason win total over & on their way to 0-6.
2-0 under w/ Saints (2022-23)
3-0 under w/ Raiders (2012-14)
Allen finishes his career with a 26-53 record (.329) in 6 seasons as a head coach. Around 10% of coaches have made it 7 seasons with a career record below .400 (via FTN).
➤Kirk Cousins has always had issues stringer together wins.
He is 9-12-1 ATS in his career coming off back-to-back SU/ATS victories. He is 3-10-1 ATS in that spot since 2017, 3rd-worst of 84 QBs since that year.
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 9-19-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Seahawks. The Falcons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games after a SU win.
➤The over is 87-70-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the fifth-most profitable QB to the over since 2003.
➤Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 16-28 ATS playing indoor games, including 3-11 ATS in his last 14 games indoors. Since 2020, Cousins is last of 92 QBs ATS playing indoor games.
➤Cousins has faced Derek Carr three times in his career – entering this week, all three starts for Cousins have come with different teams – Falcons, Vikings, and Washington – Cousins is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in those games.
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➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Rams, Titans, Bucs, Chiefs and Patriots are all coming off OT games last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 107-140 SU (43%) and 108-136-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
For KC and TB, they play on just six days of rest off an OT game on MNF; those teams are just 17-21 SU and 15-23 ATS over the last decade.
➤Overall with a bunch of injuries this season, the 49ers have struggled mightily in the red zone. They are 1 of 5 teams below 50%, with the Packers, Steelers, Cowboys and Giants.
Last year, SF had a RZ% of 67.2%, which led the NFL.
➤No Mike Evans and Chris Godwin has meant so much more of Cade Otton. He entered MNF with 10 targets in b2b games, including 17 first read/designed targets, most of any TE in the NFL.
After MNF, Otton’s 24 1st read targets is tied for the 5th-most of any receiver or TE in the NFL in the last three weeks.
➤You don’t see the 49ers in the early window every week. Under Kyle Shanahan, he is 14-12 ATS at 1p ET. Since 2019, San Francisco has only played at 1 p.m. ET off extended rest once, a 34-3 win against the Jaguars.
➤This week, Purdy will play his 13th game on extended rest, where he is 5-7 ATS. Purdy has lost 5 consecutive starts ATS on extended rest entering this weekend. With a spread of 4 or more as a favorite on extended rest, Purdy is 2-5 ATS in his career.
On extended prep, Kyle Shanahan is only 18-16 SU in his coaching career, losing a $100 bettor $658 – making him the fourth-least profitable coach since he was hired.
His 16 losses are four more than any head coach in the NFL during that span.
➤The 49ers are now 5-6 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries or doesn’t play. His teams (Panthers, Niners) are 22-32 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
In games McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
➤Road favorites off a bye are 76-50-4 ATS (60.3%) since 2004. So far during 2024, they are 2-0 SU/ATS.
➤What an ATS run for rookie QBs this year.
Through nine weeks, Rookie QBs are 17-16 SU and 20-12-1 ATS. Last year, rookie QBs went 34-36-2 ATS over the full season.
This year, rookie QBs are 11-0 ATS when listed as a favorite and 9-12-1 ATS when listed as an underdog.
➤In his early career, Jayden Daniels is 7-1-1 ATS through nine starts, including 5-0 SU/ATS as a favorite.
He’s the first QB to start his career 5-0 ATS as a favorite since 2000.
➤The Steelers are 8-0 against the 3Q spread this season, playing very well coming out of the locker room.
They are the only defeated team ATS in any quarter left this season.
Between 2020-23, Steelers were under .500 3Q ATS in all four seasons.
➤Mike Tomlin has faced a rookie QB 32 times since his first season in Pittsburgh back in 2007. He is 26-6 SU in those games.
Ironic enough, Tomlin has been an underdog vs. two rookies prior to this week: last year vs. Browns and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 13-10 loss as a 2.5 pt underdog and back in 2008 against Joe Flacco, as a 3-pt underdog, where they won outright.
➤Steelers have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 69-39 SU (64%) since Lamar became the starter in 2018 – that’s the best win pct for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire”, “Lamar is coming.”
➤Part of why Washington has been so good this season is their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th down.
On 4th down, they are 11-11 this season. Only Buffalo is also 100% on 4th down this year.
On 3rd down, Washington is 50-109, 45.9% – the 4th-best mark in the NFL.
Since 2000, Washington and Buffalo are the only teams with a 100% 4D pct through nine games. The 1998 Vikings were the last team.
➤Executing in the 4th quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 7-2 ATS
2Q ATS: 6-3 ATS
3Q ATS: 6-3 ATS
4Q ATS: 2-7 ATS
➤Mike Tomlin road unders have been the solid route recently. They are 85-64-1 (57%) to the under in his career, including 55-27-1 (67%) since 2015 – best of any head coach.
➤Pretty simple. Tomlin is 41-28-1 ATS as a road 'dog and 34-41-2 ATS as a road favorite.
When the Steelers have the worse record as a road 'dog, Tomlin is 17-10-1 ATS.
The one bad side? When Tomlin is a 'dog, when his team is above .500 SU, Pittsburgh is 5-8-1 ATS since 2021.
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➤The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year.
2nd in EPA/play, 4th success rate, 4th EPA/dropback, 1st EPA/rush
In one fewer game played, the Vikings still have 9 more QB pressures than any other team, with the 2nd-highest pressure pct in the NFL … and the highest blitz pct.
➤In his NFL career, Darnold has closed as a FG favorite or higher eight times, his teams are 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 6.7 PPG.
➤What an amazing turnaround for Sam Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season:
21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 6-2 SU/ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog. Darnold has started 3-0 SU/ATS one other time, back in 2021 with the Panthers. He finished 1-5 ATS down the stretch that year.
➤Last week vs. Colts, the 1Q score was tied 0-0 – the first Vikings 1Q ATS loss of the year. This year they are 7-1 1Q ATS, they were 15-20 1Q ATS the previous two seasons.
➤The Jaguars haven’t been good, but the spread matters. As a 'dog of 3 or more, Trevor Lawrence is 4-1 ATS this year and 11-7 ATS over the last three seasons, the Jags have covered three in a row in this spot.
The overall problem has been home for Lawrence, who is 3-8 ATS over the last two seasons – bottom 5 mark in the NFL.
➤Lawrence’s home/road splits have been drastically different this year.
Home: 67% comp pct, 9.4 Y/A, 104.5 pass rtg
Road: 57% comp pct, 5.8 Y/A, 75.7 pass rtg
➤Trevor Lawrence’s last five starts have gone over the total – the longest stretch of his 61-start career. Lawrence is 33-28 to the under in his NFL career, including 24-18 to the under in November or earlier. Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons entering this year.
➤Chargers are 7-1 to the under in the full game total this season, going under the total by 7.7 PPG. They are 4-3-1 to the first-half under and 6-2 to the second-half under.
Since the start of last season, the under is 19-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 28-14-1 in games he coaches with the Chargers and 49ers.
➤Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 17-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 17-2 to the under in his last 19 starts.
➤Herbert is 21-45-5 (32%) against the second-half spread in his career. In the past 20 seasons, he ranks 261st of 262 QBs in second-half ATS profitability, ahead of only Matthew Stafford.
Herbert is 10-30-2 against the second-half spread when leading at halftime (-$2,090 — third-worst in NFL last 20 years.
Herbert Second-Half ATS Career
2024: 3-5 ATS
2023: 3-9-1 ATS
2022: 6-10-2 ATS
2021: 5-12 ATS
2020: 4-9-2 ATS
➤Herbert has closed as a 7-pt favorite or higher in just eight career starts, with the Chargers 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in those games, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS when playing at home.
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Rams, Titans, Bucs, Chiefs and Patriots are all coming off OT games last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 107-140 SU (43%) and 108-136-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
➤Of the 35 QBs to have at least 150 plays this year, here are Mason Rudolph and Will Levis’ ranks. They are very, very similar QBs. Except for one area.
EPA/play – Levis 34th, Rudolph 28th
Succees rate – Levis 32nd, Rudolph 21st
Expected Comp % – Levis 26th, Rudolph 28th
aDOT – Levis 7th, Rudolph 15th
Turnover worthy throw pct – Levis 1st, Rudolph 28th (of 38 QBs)
Levis’ 8% TOW pct would be the highest for any QB over the last three seasons with a minimum 100 dropbacks.
➤Rudolph has only started two games playing in either MST or PST as an NFL starter, both with the Steelers, both games as underdogs and Rudolph covered the spread in both.
➤Here are Rudolph's and Levis’ splits depending on half:
1H: Levis 9-5 ATS, Rudolph 8-9 ATS
2H: Levis 2-12 ATS, Rudolph 11-6 ATS
There have been 158 QBs who have started at least 10 games in the last 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second-half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs. Outside of MNF, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-10 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-7 SU/ATS as a starter. Levis has scored more than 17 points once in those eight games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he is 2-9 SU/ATS as a starter.
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➤Dak Prescott will miss at least the next four games for the Cowboys as they turn to back up Cooper Rush.
Rush has made six career starts and he is 5-1 SU/ATS in one start in 2021 and five starts in 2022 in Dallas. Dallas has scored at least 17 pts in all six games, scoring 20 or more in 5 of the 6 games.
Between Andy Dalton and Rush, Dallas is actually 8-2 SU/ATS in their last ten games using a backup QB since the middle of the 2020 season, winning four consecutive games at home in that span.
➤Here is how backup QBs making their second start for a team in a season has performed recently vs. their first start.
Backups Since 2021
1st start – 30-62-1 SU, 47-44-2 ATS
2nd start – 19-33 SU, 27-25 ATS
Overall – 114-188-1 SU, 149-145-9 ATS
➤Cowboys haven’t played at home since Week 6 and that’s a good thing because their terrible performance has been historic. They were the 2nd team last decade to enter a bye after losing by 38+ pts at home with 2021 Lions.
Here are the halftime scores of the Cowboys last four home games…
Down 27-3 vs. Lions
Down 21-6 vs. Ravens
Down 35-16 vs. Saints
Down 27-7 vs. Packers
Down a combined 110-32
Dallas has allowed 47, 28, 44, 48 pts in their last four home games. The most pts allowed in four home games since 1972 Oilers. Dallas is off their worst loss at home since 1988.
➤Mike McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his QB and he is 17-18 ATS with all other QBs, including just 7-10 ATS at home.
➤Saquon Barkley has been tough to deal with for defenses all season, but his 84 carries (3rd), 605 rushing yards (1st) and 7.2 yards/carry (2nd) in the second half has been dominant.
➤Lately we’ve seen a great Jalen Hurts. 4-0 SU, 2nd in EPA/play, Y/A and success rate, 5th in CPOE with 12 total TDs and 0 INT.
➤Hurts has closed -6 or higher 23 times in his career. He is 20-3 SU, including 14-2 SU as a favorite of 7 pts or more.
➤When the Eagles lead, they’ve had issues holding and covering. Last 2 seasons, when Philly is a favorite and leads by 10+ pts at any point in the game, they are still just 5-6-2 ATS.
➤In Jalen Hurts’ career, he is 20-12 SU on the road – 25% of those losses have come in Dallas against the Cowboys, where he is 0-3 SU. Hurts doesn’t have another road opponent where he is even 0 SU wins and 2 losses. Hurts is losing those three games by 20 PPG.
➤The Eagles have played eight games this season. When AJ Brown has played, they are 5-0 SU, averaging 29.4 PPG. When he doesn’t, they are 1-2 SU, averaging 17.3 PPG.
➤This is it. The Jets' schedule was brutal to start the year and after getting removed from SNF next week, this ends a just ridiculous stretch.
MNF, Sun 1p, TNF, Sun 1p, Sun London, MNF, SNF, Sun 1p, TNF
In the first nine games, the Jets played five night games and a game in London without a bye week. That 5 night game mark in the first 9 games is tied for the most by any team since 2001 with 2017 Chiefs and 2018 Patriots.
➤As a member of the Jets, Aaron Rodgers has started two games on extended rest. New York has scored 27 total pts in the two games and they are 0-2 SU/ATS.
➤The Cardinals are 5-4 SU and are currently in 1st in the NFC West. Arizona entered the year at 14-1 to win the division, the 4th-highest mark of any team behind just the Patriots, Broncos and Giants.
Kyler Murray has started 27 games in his career where his team is above .500 SU, Arizona is 11-16 ATS in those games. When that game is played in November or later, they are 3-12 ATS, including 1-7 ATS at home.
➤Not only is Arizona in 1st, they also have the easiest remaining SOS for any team in the NFC, with an opponent win pct of just 42%.
➤Kyler has started 16 games at home where the road team is from EST. He is 7-9 ATS in those games. When he’s not +3 or higher in that spot, he’s 4-8 ATS.
➤One of the underrated storylines for Arizona is Kyler’s run ability this year. He has 350 rush yds on 43 attempts, 8.14 yds per carry.
Through 9 games with at least 40 attempts, only four people have averaged 8.1 Y/A since 1980. 2024 Kyler Murray, 2022 Taysom Hill, 2011 and 2006 Michael Vick and 1992 Steve Young.
➤The Cardinals have won three consecutive games SU for the first time in three years – last doing so back in 2021.
The Cardinals don’t have expectations often. In the last 20 years, they have played 8 games in November or later, where they are on 3+ game SU/ATS win streak and are over .500 SU on the season – including just one game since all the way back in 2014. That game was in 2020, where they lost as 5.5 pt favorites at home vs.Dolphins.
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➤While MNF overs have been the play this year, SNF unders have been a night earlier. Unders are 7-2 on SNF this year, 38-17 last three years and 71-45-2 since 2019.
➤One of the best cover runs of all-time continues. The Lions are now 40-15 ATS (72.7%) over their last 55 games since the middle of the 2021 season.
➤Talk about coming through for your bettors. Goff is 4-0 ATS this season as the public side. He’s 14-2 ATS last two seasons and 21-4 ATS last three years when listed as the public side.
➤In Goff’s last five starts, he has 11 TD passes and only 17 incompletions.
His 74.9% completion pct this year on 211 attempts puts him on a list with just 2018 Drew Brees since 2000 with this high a comp. Pct after 200+ attempts in 8 games.
➤Recently, Detroit hasn’t covered with a dominant offense, mostly efficient.
- Last week: Lions cover as favorites w/ 261 total yds.
- Week before: Lions cover as favorites w/225 total yds.
They are the first team to cover b2b weeks as favorites with 261 yds or less in both games since 2000.
➤Last week, the Packers went just 3-12 on 3rd down. Part of Detroit’s recipe this year has been being stingy on 3rd and 4th down.
Allowing 29.9% 3rd down pct – best in the NFL and just 40% on 4th down, top-10 in the NFL.
➤Let’s look at Goff in night games: 20-12 SU, 20-11-1 ATS, including 17-4 SU as a favorite.
Goff has won 8 consecutive starts at night when listed as a favorite and a 6-0 SU mark with the Lions, winning by 11.8 PPG.
Since 2019, Goff is 12-1 SU as a favorite in night games, the most profitable QB on the moneyline in that spot of 58 QBs.
➤This will be CJ Stroud’s fourth game played at night with the Texans. He’s 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS. He lost to the Jets, beat the Bears at home earlier this year as a 6.5 pt favorite, but didn’t cover and beat the Colts in Indy last year.
Historically, the Texans franchise have been terrible in night games. They are 0-2 ATS in night games this year and 12-30-1 ATS since 2003.
➤What’s becoming a clear angle for Stroud. He’s 7-4 ATS as an underdog and 5-10 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
➤Houston will be without both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs again. They still represent 62% of the team’s receiving yards, 45% of their targets and almost 56% of their teams 1st read/designed target pct this year.
➤We know Nico Collins is important to the Texans offense. In his career with Houston, the Texans are 6-13 SU in games he either doesn’t play or has one target or fewer.
➤Texans have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 1-8 3Q ATS, the worst mark in the NFL. Since the start of last season, Houston is just 8-20 3Q ATS under DeMeco Ryans.
➤Texans allowed a ton of sacks last week. History says to continue to fade them. Teams after allowing 7 sacks or more are 95-124-6 ATS (43%) last 20 years, including 12-23-1 ATS last three seasons.
➤Overall, Tua has struggled overall in night games. He’s 3-9 ATS in his career and has lost five consecutive starts ATS in night games, including going 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS as an underdog.
➤It’s been a bit since Tua won and covered a game, you have to go back to the day before Christmas of last year. He’s 1-6 SU/ATS in that span.
➤When Tua Tagovailoa starts, De’Von Achane has been a different RB.
He’s scored 23+ fantasy points in all 4 games with Tua – without Tua he’s averaging just 7 PPG.
In the four games. Achane has yet to finish one game outside the top-3 running backs in PPR scoring.
➤Tua has faced eight teams at 50% win pct or higher in night games, he is 2-6 SU/ATS, losing six consecutive games SU.
When Tua is on the road vs. teams with a win pct of 50% or higher, he is 4-11 SU, he’s lost 8 consecutive games in that spot.
➤McVay and Stafford have been a decent bet after a divisional game as a duo. They are 11-7-2 ATS after a divisional game and 12-18 ATS after a non-divisional game.
➤McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 26-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 6-14 SU as underdogs.
➤Sean McVay is 20-16-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 7-3 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-11-2 ATS.
On SNF and MNF, McVay has had success at home, going 8-3 SU and 6-4-1 ATS.
➤Overtime tends to have an impact. The Rams, Titans, Bucs, Chiefs and Patriots are all coming off OT games last week and are playing on 8 days rest or less.
Those teams are 107-140 SU (43%) and 108-136-3 ATS (44%) over the last decade and under .500 SU/ATS over the last three seasons, too.
➤Mike McDaniel hasn’t had the easiest time the week after facing the BIlls. Miami is 1-4 SU/ATS in their next game after facing Buffalo, failing to cover the spread by over 9 PPG.
➤Rams are coming off 10+ pt comeback win last week vs. Seahawks. Teams coming off a 10+ pt comeback in their previous game, are 91-89 SU, but 79-99-1 ATS (44%), including 97-80-3 to the under in their next game since 2020.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: This says to simply fade bad teams after a SU win.
Matches: NYG, ARI
System: In November or later, fade the favorite when two good teams play.
Matches: WAS
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System: Bad underdogs who are being undervalued on the season.
Matches: CIN, TB, JAC, NYJ
System: Betting teams after a bad loss, when they are above a few key numbers the following week.
Matches: DEN
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