I think the Steelers just scored again.
With ANOTHER Thursday Night Football rout behind us, it's time to focus on some of the most intriguing Week 10 storylines, including:
- Can the Saints back up their huge win over the Rams in a sleepy spot in Cincinnati against a banged up Bengals squad?
- How will the abnormally high number of double-digit favorites this weekend perform against the spread (ATS)?
- Along those same lines, how will the public fare after such a great Week 9 betting the NFL?
Our staff has angles on each of those three highly-anticipated matchups, plus valuable betting insight into the rest of Week 10's slate.
We actually have a consensus on the side and over/under in the Saints-Bengals game — which makes up five of the 18 favorites submitted.
We also have agreement on the total (as well as an angle on the side) for the Sunday Night Football showdown between NFC East rivals Dallas and Philadelphia.
For even more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out our betting guides for every single game.
Our staff picks now sit at 75-71-11 (51.4%) for the season. Let's take a look at our 18 favorite bets for Week 10, which can hopefully guide you to some winners.— Stuckey
>> All odds pulled overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
AFTERNOON ACTION
Chris Raybon: Bengals-Saints Under 54
1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Bengals offense will struggle to live up to its No. 4 ranking in rate of explosive passing plays without A.J. Green, who is responsible for 40% of the team’s air yards and ranks fourth in the league with 12 receptions of 20 or more yards.
New Orleans’ defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA vs. the run and can force Cincinnati into being a one-dimensional, short-passing team.
On the other side of the ball, we know the Saints can score, but they rank second in the league with a 52% run rate since Mark Ingram’s return and could chew up a lot of clock in the process. The under is 3-1 in Saints road games this season.
Sean Koerner: Saints-Bengals Under 54
1 p.m. ET on FOX
As Chris mentioned, Drew Brees is a bit more human on the road, but this week the Bengals’ game plan could also ensure this is a lower-scoring game.
With Green out, I think the Bengals will want to use Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard (expected to return this week) to work the clock and attempt to keep the Saints offense off the field as long as possible.
The 7-1 Saints are just as equipped to lean on the run game, which they like to do more on the road — especially against a vulnerable Bengals defense without stud LB Vontaze Burfict.
I think the Saints will rely on their defense to contain Andy Dalton without his favorite weapon.
It helps when both teams' blueprint to victory benefit the under.
Evan Abrams: Saints-Bengals Under 54
1 p.m. ET on FOX
Sign me up on the under as well.
Since the beginning of 2016, Cincinnati has averaged just 21 points per game in the six games Dalton has played without Green. And none of the six had more than 46 combined points, with an average of just 35.8 points.
In those six games, Dalton threw just seven touchdowns (1.2 TD/game). In comparison, Dalton had 42 touchdowns in 24 games (1.8 average) since that stretch without Green.
The Bengals' offense has also really missed tight end Tyler Eifert since his Week 4 season-ending injury. With Eifert, Dalton averaged:
- 7.6 yards per attempt
- 65.6% completion percentage
Since Eifert’s absence, Dalton's averages have dropped to:
- 6.7 yards per attempt
- 60.7% completion percentage
For New Orleans, injuries to its offensive line could create issues in the running game.
According to Football Outsiders, the Saints offensive line ranks fourth in pass protection and fifth in run blocking, but after facing Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, almost their entire line is listed on the injury report this week.
Chad Millman: Bengals +5.5 (vs. Saints)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
This one popped out to me in neon lights when I first saw the number posted. All the red flags are there:
- The Bengals, a good defense, off a bye.
- The Bengals, off a bye, playing at home.
- The Saints, fresh off of beating the Rams, being the new public darlings.
- The Saints, off a dominant win, being in a natural let-down spot.
It’s so hard to make a decision that relies on Dalton over Brees, but take into consideration that bookmakers were pummeled last week by the public.
They are going to over-inflate lines in favor of dogs because they know fans are flush with cash and confident that the favored teams are going to win.
Ken Barkley: Bengals +5.5 (vs. Saints)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
It made me cringe to even type the words, so this must really be a stinky game. And I love that feeling when betting the NFL.
Everyone just watched the Saints beat the best team in the league on national television last Sunday, while the Bengals have suffered an incredible number of key injuries. By all accounts, this should be a blowout.
But it also means the difference between these teams is probably as stretched as it can be in the market.
This is still a dome team playing outdoors after a huge win — against an out-of-conference opponent coming off a bye. No matter which teams are involved, those are generally factors that predict poor performance by one side and positive by the other.
I’ll take the Bengals and hope they have enough players by Sunday to field a full starting lineup.
John Ewing: Bills +7 (at Jets)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
Buffalo’s offense (10.4 PPG) is comically bad. The team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a game since Week 3 and has managed to score only eight touchdowns this season. For context, the Rams and Saints combined to score 10 touchdowns in their Week 9 game alone.
But bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a blowout loss, which the Bills suffered against the Bears in Week 9, getting blown out, 41-9.
Since 2003, teams following a blowout loss that score fewer than 20 points per game, like Buffalo, have gone 83-55-4 (60%) ATS as underdogs in their next game. I like the Bills here.
Geoff Schwartz: Bucs -3 (vs. Redskins)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
I have a simple rule: If you’re going on the road without three offensive line starters and a fourth banged up, I’m taking the other side.
The Tampa Bay pass defense is brutal but the Redskins aren't equipped to fully exploit that deficiency, especially with all of the injuries up front that will hurt their protection.
Give the ball to Adrian Peterson? Sounds good, right? Well, who’s going to block for him? Yea, no one. So, give me the Bucs at a field goal or less at home here.
Matthew Freedman: Bucs-Redskins Over 51
1 p.m. ET on FOX
Buccaneers overs just might be my favorite bet each week for the rest of the season.
The Bucs have a killer combination of high-scoring offense (28.6 points per game) and exploitable defense (34.4 points per game allowed), which has driven an NFL-high seven of their games to the over.
The Bucs are also banged up on defense. Middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (knee, injured reserve) is out, as is backup middle linebacker Jack Cichy (ankle, IR).
In the secondary, strong safety Chris Conte (knee, IR) and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (shoulder, IR) are out. Slot corner M.J. Steward (foot) missed Week 9 and is questionable to play.
With two exploitable defenses, I like both offenses to score enough combined points to hit the over.
Danny Donahue: Lions +7 (at Bears)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
I'm just not convinced that there are seven points separating these two teams, even in Chicago.
If they played this game two weeks ago when both teams sat at 3-3, we would have all laughed at a full-touchdown spread. And I don’t feel like the Bears deserve much credit for beating the Jets and blowing out the Bills in their two games since.
It's also been profitable to fade teams that are still covering spreads by a hefty margin after Week 4, which applies to Chicago here.
When a team has a cover margin of at least five points after Week 4, it has gone 344-418-2 (44%) ATS in the next game.
Stuckey: Lions +7 (at Bears)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
Danny nailed it, as flawed market perception got us the valuable touchdown here. This is just a great buy-low, sell-high spot — which are my favorite type of plays in a league filled with monumental week-to-week overreactions.
Look out for the fully healthy Lions defensive line (which also added Damon Harrison to help with the run) to control the line of scrimmage. I actually think this unit can dominate the Bears' offensive line more than the other way around.
Side with the inflated underdog in this division rivalry that Detroit has owned (winners of nine of 10 over Chicago) in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Matt LaMarca: Cardinals +16.5 (at Chiefs)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
The Chiefs have steamrolled their competition this season, owning an 8-1 record SU and ATS. That said, this could be a tricky spot.
The Cardinals looked better offensively in their last game before the bye, which coincided with Byron Leftwich's first game as offensive coordinator. Arizona recorded a season-high in total yards in that 18-15 win vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
My biggest concerns, though, lie with Kansas City. For starters, the Chiefs will likely be without Watkins.
Losing a skill player doesn’t seem like a huge deal given the Chiefs’ loaded offense, but they did struggle a bit with Watkins out of the lineup Week 4 in Denver.
This is also a major lookahead spot for the Chiefs, who have a potential Super Bowl preview vs. the Los Angeles Rams looming next week.
They know they don’t need their A-game to beat the Cards — or their B-game for that matter — so I’m not expecting to see it.
Scott Miller: Browns +6 (vs. Falcons)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
This is a sneaky good matchup for the Browns. The post-Hue Jackson era started with RB Duke Johnson catching nine balls for 78 yards and 2 TDs last week. If you haven't watched many Falcons games this season, they have really struggled to defend pass-catching RBs since Deion Jones went down with an injury.
Don't be fooled into buying into a resurgent Falcons defense after it allowed only 34 combined points to the Redskins and Giants the past two weeks. Those offenses are trash.
Look at Atlanta's results from Weeks 3-6 for a more accurate representation of its defense (37.5 ppg allowed) — at least until Jones comes back.
Now that we've got that out of the way, let's focus on how the Browns defense can give the Falcons some problems.
Cleveland ranks second against the pass, according to Football Outsiders. The Falcons offense is elite in that area too (fourth overall), but it has done much of its damage at home against inferior pass defenses (Panthers, 20th; Saints 29th; Bengals, 16th; Bucs, 31st; and Giants, 27th).
The Browns present a much different challenge. They have a No. 1 corner (Denzel Ward), who, if healthy, can match up one-on-one with Julio.
And they have a pass-rush (12th in adjusted sack rate) that can take advantage of an Atlanta O-line that's allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked more in three road games (12) than five home games (10).
Below-average O-lines don't travel well, especially when they can't lean on a decent run game (Atlanta ranks 22nd in rush DVOA).
The Browns are, of course, riding a four-game losing streak, but three of those games came against likely playoffs teams (Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs) and only one of them came under this new regime (a 37-21 loss to K.C. that you can chalk up to the Chiefs being #good).
I thought the opener of Falcons -3.5 was fair, but this has ballooned out of control.
Collin Wilson: Jaguars +3 (at Colts)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
Two words: Leonard Fournette.
The Jaguars can now play as they were constructed. He makes all the difference for Jacksonville's offense.
Mark Gallant: Raiders +10 (vs. Chargers)
4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
After getting blown out by Nick Mullens and the 49ers, only 18% of bettors are on the Raiders at +10.
NFL home underdogs getting at least a touchdown have historically covered at a 55% rate, and they have performed even better when getting fewer than 20% of bets, going 40-26-3 (61.5%) ATS.
Oh wait, I said the exact same thing last week about the Browns, and they made me look like a fool.
Back on that terrible home dog wagon, I guess. I can't resist.
Travis Reed: Seahawks +10 (at Rams)
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
Normally a team coming off a high-profile loss on national television is a team I’m looking to bet, but the number was too big on this game and I’m fading the Rams.
I projected this game to be around 6.5 or 7 points, so I’ll take the double-digit dog in a divisional game.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
PJ Walsh: Cowboys-Eagles Under 43.5
8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Philly ranks 21st in points per game (22.3) with Dallas (19.3) even worse off at 26th. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, these two teams struggle to move the ball through the air, with the Eagles' passing efficiency ranking only 20th in the NFL and the Cowboys at 28th.
But what really makes the under interesting is how slowly both offenses run plays. Per Football Outsiders’ pace stats, Philly ranks 26th in seconds per play while Dallas is even slower, ranking 28th.
I expect a slow game with few explosive offensive plays, which bodes well for the under.
Ian Hartitz: Cowboys-Eagles Under 43.5
8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
This game checks nearly every box when it comes to forecasting a low-scoring matchup.
- Big plays: Both defenses rank in the top-half of the league in preventing pass plays of 20-plus yards, while both offenses find themselves in the bottom-half in terms of creating big plays through the air.
- Pressure: Dak Prescott has the week’s worst matchup in combined pressure rate between a team’s offensive line and the opposition’s defensive line, while Carson Wentz comes in with the fifth-worst rate.
- Pace: The matchup is the week’s third-slowest game in combined situation neutral pace.
- Rushing ability: Both backfields have bottom-four matchups in combined adjusted line yards per rush.
- Turnovers:The Cowboys-Eagles matchup is tied with Saints-Bengals for the week’s lowest combined turnover rate.
- Passing efficiency: Only Bills-Jets and Jaguars-Colts have a lower combined net yards per pass attempt sum.
Peter Jennings: Eagles -7 (vs. Cowboys)
8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Eagles, coming off a bye, land a dream matchup against the Cowboys on a short week, where they are 2-14-1 ATS under Jason Garrett, according to our BetLabs data.
Dallas has failed to cover 12 straight in this situation, including one push.
The Eagles acquired Golden Tate at the trade deadline. This is perfect timing as he crushes the Cowboys. Per our FantasyLabs Trends tool, he has a +/- of 9.55 FP on DraftKings vs. Dallas.
The Eagles have home field, better players and a far superior coach. Alternative lines where Eagles win by 14+ are intriguing as well.
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
