NFL Week 10 Picks
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Sean Koerner: The Lions (2-6) are off to a disappointing start, but we have to remember they have endured the second-toughest schedule to date, facing six teams above .500 (Eagles, Vikings, Seahawks, Patriots, Cowboys and Dolphins).
Defense has been Detroit's Achilles' heel this season. That being said, the Lions are coming off their best game of the season, picking off Aaron Rodgers three times in a win over the Packers.
They face a tough test this week against Justin Fields, who is coming off the best two-game stretch of his young career.
Considering the Lions rank 26th in DVOA against the run, it’s going to be tough for them to slow down a run heavy team like the Bears. However, the Bears defense ranks even lower in DVOA, ranking 31st, and their defensive unit has lost two key players in Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith.
The Lions offense should also be able to move the ball with ease and keep this game close.
73% of the action and 88% of the money has come in on the Bears, yet anytime this number goes from -2.5 to -3, it gets bet back down to -2.5, likely due to sharp action hammering the key number.
I’m going to lock in the key number of 3 on Detroit while I still can.
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Sean Koerner: Both of these teams love to run and both struggle to stop the run as the Giants rank 24th in DVOA against the run while the Texans are last.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean this will be a high-scoring game. In Week 7, both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley rushed for 100-plus yards. On the other side, Travis Etienne rush for over 100 yards, yet only 40 total points were scored, which was four short of the total (44).
Both teams moving the ball on the ground means three things:
1) The clock will keep running.
2) There will be fewer plays overall.
3) It doesn't necessarily translate to a lot of points.
Another reason this game should be lower scoring is that it’ll be officiated by Bill Vinovich.
In the past four seasons, the under has gone 37-21 (64%) in games officiated by Vinovich. A big reason for that is that he doesn’t call many penalties. He has called the least amount of penalties per game each of the past three seasons.
I’m projecting this closer to 39.5 thanks to a run-heavy, slow-paced, “let-them-play” style of officiated game we should see here.
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Sean Koerner: The Jaguars rank 31st and the Chiefs rank 9th in our Luck Rankings, which is a differential of 22 spots. Tracking our Luck Rankings since Week 3, games with a differential of 16+ have seen the “unlucky” team go 16-9 ATS (64%).
All six of the Jaguars' losses have been one-score games and their biggest loss was by eight (on the road to the Eagles), so getting them at +9.5 is very quite enticing.
Last week, the Chiefs were barely able to put away a Malik Willis-led Titans team — a lot of that was due to their leaky run defense, which allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 115 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries.
The Jaguars have one of the more explosive backs in the league in Travis Etienne, who should find similar success. Even if Jacksonville were to fall behind, Trevor Lawrence is more than capable of mounting a back-door cover late. I would bet this down to 7.5.
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QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
