Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 10 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Week 10 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 10 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
T-1. Saints
Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 84.1%
T-1. Colts
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 84.1%
3. Ravens
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
4. 49ers
Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
5. Packers
Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
6. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
7. Chiefs
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
8. Rams
Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-9. Browns
Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
T-9. Cowboys
Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
11. Bears
Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
12. Giants
Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
13. Chargers
Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
14. Raiders
Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
15. Jets
Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
16. Lions
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-17. Bills
Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-17. Vikings
Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
19. Steelers
Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 38%
20. Titans
Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
21. Cardinals
Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
22. Panthers
Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 31.6%
23. Seahawks
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
24. Bengals
Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
T-25. Falcons
Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 15.9%
T-25. Dolphins
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 15.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Colts
Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. MIA
2. Jets
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. NYG
T-3. Titans
Spread: 5.5
Opponent: vs. KC
T-3. Browns
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. BUF
5. Buccaneers
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. ARI
6. Falcons
Spread: 13
Opponent: @ NO
7. 49ers
Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. SEA
8. Bengals
Spread: 10
Opponent: vs. BAL
T-9. Raiders
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. LAC
T-9. Steelers
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. LAR
T-11. Packers
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. CAR
T-11. Cowboys
Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. MIN
T-13. Bears
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. DET
T-13. Lions
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ CHI
T-15. Vikings
Spread: 3
Opponent: @ DAL
T-15. Panthers
Spread: 5.5
Opponent: @ GB
T-17. Rams
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ PIT
T-17. Chargers
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ OAK
19. Ravens
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ CIN
20. Seahawks
Spread: 6
Opponent: @ SF
21. Saints
Spread: -13
Opponent: vs. ATL
22. Cardinals
Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ TB
T-23. Bills
Spread: 2.5
Opponent: @ CLE
T-23. Chiefs
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: @ TEN
25. Giants
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ NYJ
26. Dolphins
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
