NFL Week 10 Picks
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Brandon Anderson: Neither of these teams play on Sunday, but for very different reasons.
The Steelers get the week off, which could be huge. This is a team that pivoted to rookie QB Kenny Pickett on the fly, literally mid-game without a real chance to stop and revamp the offense around his talent. It's also a defense that badly needed time to heal. The week off should do wonders for the health of the secondary, and it could mean the return of defending Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt.
The Saints, on the other hand, will be playing on Monday night. New Orleans is a home underdog against a tough Ravens team that just traded for Roquan Smith and adds him and the returning Tyus Bowser to the LB corps, and we saw last Thursday how exhausting it is chasing down Lamar Jackson and this Ravens offense.
Perception of the Saints is flying high right now after a 24-0 drubbing of the Raiders, but that could change in a hurry if the Ravens take care of business as expected. New Orleans is only 3-5 with its other two wins coming in the final minutes, and no one thought much of the Saints before last week's shutout.
Now they're road favorites? I don't buy it.
Steelers +3 | ML +126
Pittsburgh's results with Kenny Pickett haven't been pretty, but he hasn't exactly been given a fair shake. Three of Pickett's four starts have come on the road against the Bills, Eagles and Dolphins. Pittsburgh's defense was lit up in these games against the league's best offenses, and never really had a chance. The Steelers won Pickett's one home start against the Bucs, and nearly beat the Jets in his halftime debut, too. That result looks pretty good in hindsight.
The bye week should give Pickett a chance to settle in. Mike Tomlin is 11-4 straight up (SU) out of the bye with five straight wins, and you already know this is a great Rah Rah Tomlin underdog spot.
Tomlin is 39-16-1 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he's nearly untouchable at home. He's 14-2-1 ATS there, covering nine straight and winning the last seven times outright — including that shocker against the Bucs.
From Week 5 forward, Tomlin is 13-4 SU as a home underdog, an obscene record with a rollicking 98% ROI for moneyline bettors.
While Pickett is no sure thing as a rookie starter, it's not like he has stiff competition on the other side.
Andy Dalton is an ugly 9-16 ATS (36%) in primetime games — loser of six straight — so he could struggle Monday night. But hey, if the Saints do poorly, maybe they turn back to Jameis Winston.
Oh wait, Winston is 13-23-3 ATS (36%) in toss-up spreads under a field goal and 8-18-1 ATS (31%) as a favorite. Can I interest you in Taysom Hill? Didn't think so.
If you think the Saints win Monday night, you should probably wait. Even if you like this spot for Pittsburgh, you might get the key number +3 after a Saints win. I think there's a better chance of New Orleans getting trounced by Baltimore though, so I'll grab the line value while it's there.
This is a great spot to back Pickett at home with an extra week of preparation and a healthier Steelers defense against an overvalued Saints team coming off a short week.
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Dylan Wilkerson: The Bills are coming off of a surprising divisional loss, and the Vikings off of a hard-fought win in Washington.
However, the Vikings fell on the winning side of a couple of turnovers, and the Bills fell on the wrong side of the turnovers. It is also worth noting that the Vikings don't have as talented of a defense as the Jets.
The public will be all over the Bills, so I would take advantage of this overreaction sooner rather than later. On the lookahead, the Bills were 10.5-point favorites. I could see this line getting back up there by kickoff Sunday.
