Lines move quickly on Sunday night, but so do our NFL betting analysts.
Three of our experts jumped on early NFL Week 10 picks. Some of the lines did not last long, but you should use our live NFL odds page to make sure you're getting the best number on each of these games.
Enough of me talking. Hope that helped. Here are our NFL Week 10 picks.
NFL Picks | Week 10
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from Week 10's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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Packers vs. Steelers
We won with the Steelers in this space last week, so we're going back to the well.
The opening line was Steelers -2.5, which prices these teams as even on a neutral field. I'm not buying that. Pittsburgh is not as good as its 5-3 record, but it's definitely better than Green Bay.
Neither offense is good. We'll start with Green Bay.
The Packers have scored 20 or fewer points in six straight games and are averaging 17.4 points per game since an impressive Week 1 win in Chicago.
Green Bay had an unimpressive win over the Rams, failing to impress against an average defense and Brett Rypien at quarterback.
The Steelers, unlike the Packers, rank highly in DVOA, in the top six in offense, defense and overall.
The Pittsburgh defense is the one great unit that will be on the field. Its secondary should thrive against Jordan Love, especially at home. The Packers defense, meanwhile, is awful against the downfield passing game and opposing WR1s. I see a big day coming for George Pickens.
I got this at Steelers -2.5, but grab the lowest number you can now that it has gone up to -3.
Pick: Steelers -3
Packers vs. Steelers
The Steelers' mini-bye coming off a Thursday Night Football game comes at a good time. Kenny Pickett should have time to recover from two games in five days in which he likely played at less than 100%. They'll stay at home and take on a Packers team that has struggled badly on offense. Christian Watson was banged up again, and his status will be in question going into next week.
The Packers' only road victory this season was back in Week 1 in Chicago. They have the lowest EPA/play (expected points added) on offense in the entire NFL over the first half of their games.
The Steelers defense has a 9.1% adjusted sack rate, which is the sixth highest in football. Jordan Love will not be able to bring this Packers team back in the second half when he is under duress. Teams had only completed 38% of their passes against this Steelers defense when pressure can get home through Week 8.
I grabbed the Steelers at -2.5, but the line has moved to -3 across the board as of 10 p.m. ET. I'd lay the field goal
Pick: Steelers -3
Commanders vs. Seahawks
Don't overreact to the Seahawks' blowout loss in Baltimore. It was a bad matchup and the Ravens are playing at an elite level. The Commanders, meanwhile, pretty much played the Patriots evenly.
Seattle has a big advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, especially after Washington traded its best pass rushers and the Seahawks added Leonard Williams.
Washington is a bottom-10 offense and defense, according to DVOA, and ranks as the worst defense over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Seattle is in the top 10 overall and the top 15 in all three phases.
This could be a get-right game for the Seahawks offense, which had struggled on third down and in the red zone. Washington's corners are beatable and Seattle has plenty of pass-catchers waiting to break out.
Pete Carroll is 47-29-4 (62%) against the spread coming off a loss. Also, teams with a win percentage above 60% coming off a loss of 20 or more points cover at a 68% rate the following week. Between Weeks 10-15, that rate is 39-6 (87%).
I'd put this line above seven and maybe play some alt lines.
Pick: Seahawks -6
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Giants vs. Cowboys
By Ricky Henne
I’m not sure there’s a big enough spread that I wouldn’t back the Cowboys in this spot … and that’s only slight hyperbole.
Daniel Jones returned from a neck injury to start on Sunday but went out early in the Giants’ loss after reportedly tearing his ACL. Meanwhile, Tyrod Taylor is on IR, which means we’re probably treated to more Tommy DeVito.
That hasn’t been a pretty sight so far.
DeVito's completed 17-of-27 passes for 174 yards, one touchdown and a pair of picks out of the bullpen the past two weeks. The best thing you can say about his performance against the Raiders is that at least he threw for positive yards after throwing for minus-one in Big Blue’s loss to the Jets. The Giants have Matt Barkley on the practice squad, and it’s possible they decide to start him after what we’ve seen from DeVito.
Either way, there aren’t many reasons to think the Giants can keep this close considering they lose by an average of 18. On the other hand, when the Cowboys win, they blow away the opposition. Their average margin of victory is 22.2 points.
I jumped at this early and got it at Cowboys -12.5. It’s crept up to 15 and is still trending upwards. I’d consider this all the way up to 17.5 – which is something I’m not sure I’ve ever said before – based on the average margin of loss and victory for each team.
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