Click here to follow Nick Giffen in the Action App to get all his betting picks instantly.
Kicker Props Record This Season: 19-17 (+3.42 units, 8.5% return on investment)
props–container">
Riley Patterson
Under 2.5 Extra Points Made (-160, BetMGM)
The Jaguars are significant underdogs here, which means they’ll likely have to play catchup to beat the Chiefs — if they have a chance. That increases the chances of a 2-point conversion, and Jacksonville already goes for it at the sixth highest rate in the league (17.4%).
Jacksonville’s implied team total is 20.75 points, which means it’s not even expected to score three touchdowns.
I have this as a 72.8% chance of going under and would bet it to -200.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+140, BetMGM)
The Texans face a Giants team that has allowed 2.75 field-goal attempts per game. Houston also kicks field goals at a 5% higher rate than expected on fourth downs.
Fairbairn has attempted two field goals per game and made 1.75 per contest, making this a very good spot.
I have Fairbairn going over this total at a 45.7% rate, which translates to +120 in terms of probability. I’d bet this to +125.
