NFL Odds & Picks
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Sean Koerner: Fournette has struggled of late and hasn’t cleared this number — or even 30 yards — over his past three games. Things won’t get easier this week as he faces a Seahawks defense that ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and has been even better of late.
Since Week 5, Seattle has only allowed 3.3 yards per carry to RBs on 1st and 2nd down. We have also seen rookie Rachaad White mix in a bit more on early down work — the talented rookie has out-gained Fournette on the ground in two of the past three games.
Fournette should still see most of the goal line and receiving work, but White could continue to eat into his early down work, which gives Fournette an even lower floor in this market. I’m projecting Fournette’s median closer to 38.5 rushing yards and would bet this down to 41.5.
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Billy Ward: Tennessee matches up extremely well in this spot against Denver. The Titans are far better offensively in the run game, ranking 10th in DVOA compared to 25th when throwing. Denver is a run funnel – it has the league’s best pass defense but are just the 25th-ranked run defense.
That sets up for a big day for Derrick Henry, who also has one of the best offensive line matchups on the slate. It wouldn’t be a total shock for him to score the three touchdowns needed to go over this prop.
It also helps that the Titans’ defense is a pass funnel. They have the league’s best run defense by DVOA, which should force Denver to the air. Regardless of whether or not Denver has success passing, that should speed up the game and create more possessions for Tennessee.
I’d also consider pairing this with various Henry prop overs – anytime touchdown, rushing yards – if you’re interested in some same game parlay action.
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Sean Koerner: The Jags were written off by many people after their five-game losing streak from Weeks 4-8, but all of those defeats were by one score. In fact, all six of their losses have come by one score, which makes +9.5 a very enticing number.
The Jaguars should be able to deploy a similar recipe as the Malik Willis-led Titans last week, and that’s by relying on the ground game.
Travis Etienne has looked like one of the more dynamic runners in the league, and should the Jaguars fall behind, Trevor Lawrence is more than capable of getting a backdoor cover.
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Nick Giffen: The Jaguars are significant underdogs, which means they’ll likely have to play catch up to beat the Chiefs. That increases the chances of them going for a two-point conversions. Jacksonville already goes for two at the sixth-highest rate in the league (17.4%).
Jacksonville’s implied team total is 20.75 points, which means they are not even expected to score three touchdowns.
I have this as a 72.8% chance of going under and would bet it to -200.
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Billy Ward: Lions road games have produced an average of 33 points per contest this season. Of course, there’s a bit of noise contained in that statistic since they’ve only played three road games.
However, there’s some logic to it as well. Detroit plays in a dome on turf, which generally is better for offensive production. In their lone game outside, Detroit was shut out.
Furthermore, it’s expected to be relatively cold in Chicago. Not to an extent that we’d generally worry about it, but Jared Goff has struggled in cold weather in his career. In sub-40 degree conditions, his teams have averaged just over 14 points per game.
There’s also the Bears’ poor line play to consider, and the Lions' seeming turnaround on offense. I expect this one to disappoint from a scoring standpoint.
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Nick Giffen: This is a great situation for the Browns as they are coming off a bye week after crushing division-rival Cincinnati the week before. Meanwhile, Miami turned in an underwhelming win over the Bears, with Chicago covering in a three-point loss.
The Browns are 19 spots more unlucky than Miami per our Luck Rankings. Teams that are 16 or more places more unlucky than their opponent are 16-9 (64%) against the closing line since we started tracking in Week 3.
I love how this matchup plays out for the Browns. Nick Chubb has been a monster on the ground, racking up at least 4.4 yards per carry in every game to go along with 87 yards or more in all but one.
In other words, the ground game has been solid all year, so Miami’s seventh-ranked rushing defense by DVOA doesn’t worry me.
What really helps is the Dolphins struggle against the pass, coming in 31st in defensive pass DVOA. That should help Cleveland’s passing attack more than their rushing game will be harmed.
Grab this at +3.5, as the most likely outcome is Miami by a field goal.
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Billy Ward: The corollary to my usual Steelers first half under bet is the second half over. Given the incredibly low total on this game, I’m showing more value on the over this week.
Both teams play considerably quicker in the second half, with the Saints about two seconds faster and the Steelers three. This one also projects to be a fairly close game – with a spread of 1.5 – so neither team is likely to be in clock-killing mode.
The Saints will be getting back Jarvis Landry, who, along with the emergence of Chris Olave, and the ever-present threat of Alvin Kamara gives teams a few weapons to worry about. Additionally, it’s a positive matchup for both offensive lines in pass protection.
