We’re onto Week 10 of the NFL season, and there are some fascinating matchups to break down. We start with a pivotal primetime matchup between the Bengals and Ravens and follow it up with the fourth NFL game ever played in Germany. In this article, I’ll briefly overview every game on the slate, including a few bets I placed early in the week. Let’s dive into the matchups.
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 10 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
The Bengals have been fighting an uphill battle after their 1-4 start, and while they’ve won three of their past four games, they still have very little margin for error. When these teams met earlier this season, it came down to the wire in overtime, and questions were asked about head coach Zac Taylor’s late-game management.
This time around, Burrow hopes to lead Cincinnati to a much-needed divisional win. The Ravens will give him opportunities to put up numbers with their pass funnel defense as they rank first in run defense success rate and are 23rd against the pass. Burrow finished with 392 passing yards and five touchdowns in that previous matchup.
Lamar Jackson is having an incredible season, leading the league with an absurd 9.3 yards per pass attempt while throwing for 20 touchdowns and just two interceptions. The Bengals’ defense has been on the rise, ranking top 10 in early down defensive EPA/play and success rate over the past four weeks. However, their improved health may not matter against this juggernaut Ravens offense.
The betting trends will lead you to the Bengals here. Burrow is 18-9 ATS as an underdog and an insane 16-2 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points. Meanwhile, Jackson is 9-19-1 ATS when favored by 3+ points. I lean toward the Bengals getting to the window, but I’ll wait on the statuses of Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown, both of whom are listed as questionable. Don’t be afraid to wait for a better number live as this should be a high-scoring game with good live betting opportunities.
Verdict: Lean Bengals +6, wait for injury news
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Passes
We’ll see the fourth-ever game in Germany on Sunday, although fans at Allianz Stadium would undoubtedly love for a better matchup than this one. The Panthers are back to starting Bryce Young at quarterback, and he deserves credit for better play of late. However, this makeshift Carolina offensive line could struggle to contain a Giants pass rush that features Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns. With Ikem Ekwonu out last week, Brady Christensen kicked to left tackle and Cade Mays made his first career start at center.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have struggled to generate pressure all season, and Daniel Jones has been great from a clean pocket. He’s fourth in adjusted completion rate and ninth in PFF’s passing grades when not facing pressure this season. This could be a great spot to play some Malik Nabers props against an overmatched Carolina secondary. I don’t have much interest in the side or total here.
Verdict: Pass
The Colts waxed poetic about veteran Joe Flacco giving them the best chance to win now and gave him the start on Sunday. He led the offense to just six points as the Colts finished with a putrid 36% offensive success rate. Flacco’s lack of mobility in the pocket became a real problem against Brian Flores’ aggressive blitzing defense.
Unlike the Vikings, the Bills rank 30th in blitz rate and have struggled to generate pressure at times, ranking 22nd in pressure rate. Still, they should be able to get home against the Colts, who rank 29th in pass-block win rate. Getting Jonathan Taylor going will be critical for Indianapolis this week after he was quiet in the loss to Minnesota.
The Colts defense has gotten healthier recently, but a matchup against Josh Allen presents a different challenge. Allen ranks third in EPA+CPOE this season and can go nuclear against the Indianapolis pass defense, which ranks 28th in DVOA.
Verdict: Pass
The Titans could be turning the keys to the offense back to Will Levis this week, which would be poor timing against a Chargers defense that ranks second against the pass by success rate and EPA. Jesse Minter has done an excellent job in his first year as the defensive coordinator, and while the Chargers have benefitted from the easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, that’s not changing here.
Justin Herbert has been playing as well as any quarterback in the league lately, ranking second in both PFF’s passing grades and big-time throw rate since Week 6. The Chargers rank second in early down pass play rate since Week 6, and the Titans rank fifth in run defense DVOA, but are much more vulnerable against the pass. So, expect another game of heavy pass play volume.
This is close to being a luck rankings game per Nick Giffen’s model, with the Titans being the unlucky team, but it would be tough for me to back them in this spot. The Chargers look like a strong 6-point Wong teaser option here.
Verdict: Pass, use Chargers -1.5 as a teaser piece
The Dolphins have been on the wrong side of close-game variance lately, losing three straight one-score games. As a result, they’re now 31st in the luck rankings model. There will be a game to buy the Dolphins sometime soon, but I’m not sure this is it. Miami ranks 28th in defensive DVOA, and with a healthy complement of skill position talent, the Rams’ offense should find plenty of success Sunday.
Miami’s offense should also succeed against a Rams defense ranked 24th in DVOA. Jared Verse has been excellent in his rookie season, but Los Angeles ranks just 20th in pass-rush win rate, and Tua Tagovailoa is lethal from a clean pocket. De’Von Achane’s continued emergence as a receiving threat makes the Dolphins’ offense all the more dangerous.
This looks like an excellent game to wait and bet live. With a total of 50.5 points, this looks like a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair that'll feature plenty of live trading opportunities.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
We know Brian Flores will blitz Trevor Lawrence as the Vikings rank first in blitz rate this season. However, Lawrence has been very good against the blitz this season, ranking sixth in PFF’s passing grades against the blitz. Walker Little still provides some concern at left tackle as he’s replacing Cam Robinson, now the Vikings’ starting left tackle.
Minnesota is still highly respected by the market, and passing explosives should be available against Jacksonville. The Jaguars rank last in pass defense DVOA, primarily because they’ve allowed an unsustainably high rate of long completions. Sam Darnold leads the NFL in yards per attempt on 20+ yard throws, so he should find success downfield.
Market dynamics would lead me to back the Jaguars here, and I believe Jacksonville can keep this game close, but instead of a side, there are player prop angles I’d rather target.
Verdict: Lean Jaguars +4.5
The 49ers’ bye week couldn’t have come at a better time after the team was hit hard by injuries over the first month of the season. The expected return of Christian McCaffrey should be transformative for the offense, and he comes back just in time for a matchup against a poor Buccaneers defense that ranks 29th in defensive success rate.
Tampa Bay ranks 27th in defensive line yards, so McCaffrey should have plenty of success on the ground with whatever touches he’s ready to take on. The Buccaneers will be without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but Baker Mayfield and Liam Coen should still find offensive success as the quarterback has been an excellent fit for the play-caller’s scheme.
The total for this game has already climbed from 48 on Monday to 51 as of Tuesday, so we missed the best number there, but I still lean toward the over. I think we’ll see plenty of points in this one.
Verdict: Lean Over 51 Points
This season, one of the most significant issues for the Jets has been protecting an injured, immobile Aaron Rodgers behind an underperforming offensive line. That won’t be a huge issue this week as the Cardinals rank 31st in pass-rush win rate, and the mini-bye week should allow Rodgers to get healthier. He’s been excellent from a clean pocket this year, including leading the league with 13 big-time throws, per PFF.
The Jets’ defense, meanwhile, looked the best it has all season last week, generating 32 pressures and sacking C.J. Stroud eight times. It’s essential to monitor injuries on the Jets’ defense as linebacker C.J. Mosley, cornerback Michael Carter II, and safeties Ashtyn Davis and Tony Adams are questionable.
Arizona’s defense ranks just 28th in EPA/play, and it’s the worst unit on the field in this game. The Jets remain a buy team after they appeared to right the ship last week following a brutal run of luck, and I lean towardthem picking up another win here.
Verdict: Lean Jets ML
The Cowboys’ season is going down the drain, and the Mike McCarthy era might end with it. Dak Prescott is now out for the foreseeable future with a hamstring injury, and Cooper Rush will replace him as the starter this week. The Dallas offense was already struggling, and it’s tough to see it finding success against an Eagles defense that has rapidly been on the rise under the leadership of Vic Fangio.
The Eagles should also have plenty of success running the ball here. The Cowboys rank 29th in run defense DVOA, meaning this will likely be another massive game for Saquon Barkley. Still, the total for this game dropped from 46 on Sunday to 42 on Tuesday, with Prescott getting ruled out, and I still lean toward the under here.
A.J. Brown’s status will also be essential to monitor. With Brown in the lineup, the Eagles are 5-0 this season, averaging 27.4 points per game. Without him, they’re 1-2, averaging 17.3 points per game. I’d be interested in the under if Brown gets ruled out, even at this deflated price. Regardless, the Eagles are an excellent teaser piece.
Verdict: Use Eagles as a teaser piece, lean under 42 points
Nico Collins could return to the lineup for the Texans this week, which would be massive after Stefon Diggs suffered a season-ending injury. However, he won’t fix an offensive line that ranks 28th in pass-block win rate. I still have questions about the Lions’ pass rush after they lost Aidan Hutchinson for the season. Still, the trade for Za’Darius Smith helps, and this game provides Detroit an opportunity to get some of its less heralded pass rushers some success.
Will Anderson Jr.’s status will also be essential to monitor after he left the game against the Jets with an ankle injury. Houston’s run defense ranks fourth in DVOA this season, but the Lions have the best rushing attack the Texans have seen all year. Detroit also has a lethal play-action passing game that will benefit from Jameson Williams' return from suspension.
The market backed the Texans early, driving the spread from +4.5 to +3.5. That move makes sense, and this game could be decided on early downs. The Lions rank fourth in early down offensive success rate, while the Texans rank second on defense. The Texans rank 30th in early down offensive success rate, while the Lions rank 20th on defense. Whoever wins that battle likely wins the game. I lean toward that being the Lions.
Verdict: Lean Lions -3 or better
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NFL Week 10 Picks
The Bears’ offense has struggled mightily lately, especially as an already poor offensive line has suffered injuries to offensive tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright. As a result, Caleb Williams ranks last in EPA+CPOE over the past two weeks. That’s a small sample size, but it’s challenging to envision fortunes turning for this offense. Shane Waldron has been overmatched as a play caller this year.
However, I expect the Bears’ defense to put forth a strong effort. It will be important to monitor the injury statuses of Montez Sweat, Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker, although I’m hopeful for better health for Chicago’s defense this week. If Sweat can play, the Patriots’ offensive line will be completely overmatched against the Bears’ pass rush.
New England ranks last in pass-block win rate, and Chicago ranks fifth in pass-rush win rate. Drake Maye has struggled under pressure this year, ranking 31st out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades. The Patriots can’t supply a consistent rushing threat, either. Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 2.2 YPC over his past three games behind a poor run-blocking unit.
I have high hopes for Williams and Maye in the future, and I believe both can be long-term starting quarterbacks in this league. However, the current versions of these offenses leave a lot to be desired, especially with two of the worst offensive lines in the league. In an outdoor game with potential wind and rain, I’m taking the under.
Verdict: Bet Under 39.5 Points
The Commanders continue to emerge as a legitimate contender in the NFC, and Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit for turning around Washington's pass defense. Through the first four weeks, the Commanders’ defense looked the way it did last season, ranking last in EPA/play allowed. However, they rank eighth since Week 5, including third in pass defense EPA.
Quinn’s pressure scheme has been working, as the Commanders are now fourth in the NFL in pass-rush win rate despite lacking blue-chip talent in that department. They’ll look to get after Russell Wilson, who has a poor 38.7 PFF passing grade under pressure this season, albeit on a minimal sample.
Washington’s offense has been setting the league on fire, ranking second in DVOA, but it’s crucial to take stock of who they’ve faced. The Commanders have played the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses by DVOA, including just one above-average pass defense all year. Jayden Daniels has struggled under pressure, ranking 29th out of 36 qualified passers with a 58.7% adjusted completion rate, and the Steelers have an elite pass rush led by T.J. Watt.
I believe this total is priced a couple of points too high, and I’ll back the defenses winning the day here. Mike Tomlin has gone 85-64-1 (57%) to the under in road games in his career, including 55-27-1 (67%) since 2015. I’m backing another Tomlin road under in this spot.
Verdict: Bet Under 45.5 Points
The Broncos got steamrolled by the Ravens on Sunday, but I don’t believe that completely erases the strides this young Denver team has been making in recent weeks. Vance Joseph’s defense runs a high rate of man coverage and aggressive blitzing, which should present issues for a Chiefs offense that lacks elite separators at receiver, even with DeAndre Hopkins’ emergence.
Baltimore has the top offense in the league by early down EPA, and Lamar Jackson has annihilated the blitz this year. Meanwhile, Kansas City ranks 18th in early down EPA and has been uber-reliant on late-down heroics from Patrick Mahomes. Against an elite set of cornerbacks led by Patrick Surtain II, Mahomes may be unable to bail out his offense as frequently on Sunday.
Bo Nix has had an up-and-down rookie season, and backing him in his first road start against Steve Spagnuolo at Arrowhead is a scary proposition. Still, I trust Sean Payton to have a solid offensive game plan to quickly get the ball out of Nix’s hands and keep the chains moving.
Payton is 81-59-3 ATS (58%) on the road or at a neutral site in his coaching career, and he’s 56-38-2 (60%) as an underdog. The Chiefs have struggled to gain margin all season, and I’ll back this feisty Denver defense to stay within the number in what looks like a low-scoring divisional matchup.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +8.5
After setting the league on fire for the first two weeks of the season, the Saints have lost seven straight games, including last week’s shocking loss to the Panthers. New Orleans got very unlucky to lose that game, outgaining Carolina by 181 yards and 10 first downs. Still, that loss was the final straw for head coach Dennis Allen, who was fired and replaced by interim coach Darren Rizzi.
Derek Carr’s return last week can’t be overstated as he ranks 12th out of 49 qualified quarterbacks in completion rate over expected. Spencer Rattler ranks 45th and Jake Haener ranks 47th for comparison. Chris Olave will likely miss this game after another unfortunate concussion, but I still expect Carr to succeed against an Atlanta pass defense that ranks 26th in pass-rush win rate.
According to Nick Giffen's model, this is a massive luck rankings game. The Falcons have been the third-luckiest team, while the Saints rank 32nd. Unlucky teams have gone 125-72-6 (63.1%) ATS in the regular season. I’m plugging my nose and grabbing the hook at +3.5 while it’s still available.
Verdict: Bet Saints +3.5
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