Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 10 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
I'm targeting two high-profile matchups this week, starting with Thursday Night Football. The Bengals are thriving offensively and have a great matchup against a Ravens defense that has struggled to contain Joe Burrow. Then we move onto 49ers vs. Buccaneers, for which I'm fading Tampa Bay.
NFL Week 10 Picks, Predictions
Bengals vs. Ravens: Thursday Night Football Pick
The Bengals have gone from 0-3 to 4-5 and now face a monster game. Cincinnati can save its season here, and it could be favored in every game for the rest of the season with a win here.
So far this season, the big loss for the Ravens has been former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. This Baltimore defense has struggled throughout the season against the pass while remaining reasonable stout against opposing ground games.
Enter Joe Burrow, who's playing great right now. Also, in these teams' first matchup earlier this season, Burrow threw for 392 yards and five touchdowns. The Ravens rank in the bottom quarter in the league in terms of defending the pass, and this Cincinnati offense is hitting its stride.
Now, onto the trends.
Zac Taylor is 23-16-1 (59%) agains the spread (ATS) against teams over .500. He runs into John Harbaugh here, and he's 28-37-4 as a favorite in divisional games.
Lamar Jackson is 7-18-1 (28%) ATS as a home favorite of between 3-10 points. Also, when Burrow is an underdog of three or more points, he's 16-3 ATS, including the playoffs. Build off that one, Burrow has actually eight of his last 12 starts as a 'dog of three or more points for an 89% return on investment (ROI).
This should be one of the best Thursday Night Football games we'll get this season, and it makes up well for a Bengals team that is thriving offensively and needs this win.
49ers vs. Buccaneers Prediction
It took until Week 10, but it sounds like Christian McCaffrey has a decent chance of returning here. The bye week came at the right time for the 49ers, who have dealt with injuries to key players on offense all season.
Speaking of injuries, the Buccaneers are going to remain without wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin here. In addition to that, they'll be facing the 49ers on a short week after Monday Night Football against the Chiefs.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit fraudulent this season entering that game against Kansas City. Tampa Bay enters this game not getting enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks and getting eaten alive on short-passing plays. That latter point is less than ideal against an efficient Chiefs offense that's void of a consistent threat down the field.
This matchup for the Bucs will be worse against the 49ers. San Francisco has a better offense than Kansas City and could finally have its go-to guy back in the backfield.
And — you probably guessed it — there are trends to back this.
Over the last two decades, road favorites coming off a bye week cover at a 60% rate, including a 26-11 (70%) mark as favorites of 5.5 or more points.
Also, Todd Bowles tends to struggle when he faces a team that has more time than usual to prepare for his team. He's 0-5 ATS when facing a team coming off its bye week.
