The survivor concept is simple: Pick one team to win an NFL game every week. No spreads or totals – just winners. Once you use that team, you can't use them again – creating an element of strategy and long-term planning that makes these contests deceptively difficult.
Fortunately, this year we're partnering with our friends at Pool Genius to make things easier. They've built slate-leading tools to help conquer a variety of pool contests, including survivor.
Week 9 was another smooth week for the few remaining survivor players. Roughly three percent of the field was eliminated after the Falcons lost to the Vikings and their newly acquired quarterback, Joshua Dobbs.
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This week is shaping up as another somewhat easy one — if you have the massive favorite available. Things get a bit trickier if not. Rather than break up this week's article into large vs. small field, we'll be looking at strategies for entries that have the Cowboys available and those that don't have the Cowboys available.
My favorite feature of the site is the ability to customize for your pool type. Factors such as contest size and payout structure are a huge factor in survivor contests as smaller fields generally don't have any entries that survive all 18 weeks.
To give a glimpse of how that works, I'll be providing Pool Genius' top option for small (fewer than 50) and large (1,000+) pools. For Week 10, we'll be pivoting from that format a bit, while still touching on some considerations based on (remaining) field size.
Besides that, Pool Genius tracks pick-selection data to help figure out contrarian options. This is helpful in larger pools since we're trying to optimize for expected value more than just the odds of winning.
Finally, Pool Genius uses projected future spreads to assign a future value to each team – which includes considering the scarcity of strong options on certain weeks. This is crucial as we don't want to burn the best teams when there are other strong options that week.
To get the full data, you'll need to sign up for the site. It's well worth it and also includes tools for taking down the increasingly popular pick'em contests that feature massive prize pools.
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Best Option if Possible: Dallas
We don't see very many -1500 favorites in the NFL, but Dallas has gotten that high in Week 10 on some books. The Cowboys have had some bumps in the road, but they're one of the NFC's elite teams. They're taking on a Giants team they walloped 40-0 in Week 1 — and this time Dallas is at home.
More importantly, New York lost starting quarterback Daniel Jones to an ACL tear last week. This isn't good under any circumstances — but it's catastrophic when backup passer Tyrod Taylor is also out with an injury.
Now down to 25-year-old undrafted rookie Tommy Devito, it could get extremely ugly for the Giants.
Consequently, the Cowboys are a must-play, especially in smaller fields with only a handful of competitors left. The Cowboys had a few prior weeks with roughly 20% utilization rates, so odds are one or two of your opponents won't have them as an option this week. While you won't get leverage on most of the field, it's a chance to narrow the pool a bit for the home stretch.
For larger fields, a significant number of people won't have the Cowboys available. In those cases, selecting the Cowboys and hoping for a loss or two from other popular choices is the way to go.
Without Dallas: Seattle, Chicago or Best Available
Outside of the Cowboys, the only teams showing as positive expected value (EV) options in Week 10 are Seattle, Baltimore and Buffalo.
At this point in the season, it's probable that you've used two of those three teams if you're still alive, and it's quite possible that all three and the Cowboys aren't options in Week 10. That's where things get tricky.
The Bengals also have a strong implied probability this week at 73%, but they're nearly as popular as the Cowboys. That makes them a tough choice in large-field contests because the relative safety isn't high enough to justify the price of going with the chalk. That is, unless you think the Cowboys have a shot at eliminating the users who have them still as an option.
The sweet spot if none of the favorites of six or more points are available just might be Chicago. The Bears have a nearly two-in-three shot at beating the Panthers this week while being used by almost nobody.
Additionally, they're only projected to be favored once more this season, at only 58% odds.
I would only resort to the Bears in small pools if none of the other options are available. However, I'd consider them in larger pools over their more popular counterparts. The combined value of leverage over the field and saving better teams for later is important, especially in pools where the winner(s) likely need to last the entire season.
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