It isn't every week we have three amazing matchups like we do in Week 11. Between Thursday Night Football, Steelers vs. Ravens and Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen in the Chiefs-Bills showdown, Week 11 has it all.
Let's look at this week's NFL slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know as you prepare for another week of NFL action. Here is Week 11 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Nov. 13, at 12 a.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Here We Go Again
Chiefs, Mahomes as Undefeated Underdogs
Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up (SU) mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts. Mahomes’ only ATS loss as an underdog came in 2022 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills, losing 24-20 as a 2.5-point underdog.
This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era that a team 9-0 SU or better is listed as an underdog.
Underdogs Rule
Week 10 Outlier
Underdogs finished 11-3 ATS in Week 10. We haven't had an NFL week where 11 or more dogs covered with three or fewer losing ATS since 2017.
Detroit Lions Making History
Lions Peak Expectations
The Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.
Take the Under
The Sunday Night Football Trend
Sunday Night Football unders are 8-2 this season. Since the beginning of 2022, they're 35-13 (73%) to the under, going under the total by 4.5 points per game.
Here are the under records in night games by day:
- Sunday: 35-13
- Monday: 30-21
- Saturday: 7-4
- Friday: 0-1
- Thursday: 21-23
Which Teams Will Prove Dominance?
Great Week 11 Matchups
Chiefs-Bills
Ravens–Steelers
Commanders–Eagles
For the first time since 2020 and the second time in a decade, we have three matchups in which both teams have a win percentage of 70% or higher in Week 11 or later.
Every NFL Game For Week 11
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Home Teams Struggle on Thursday Night
➤Thursday home teams are just 42-55 ATS since 2019, including 38-49 ATS in night Thursday games.
Teams playing at home in a night game outside of the Sunday Night Football window are 97-116-3 ATS since 2019. SNF home teams are 60-55 ATS in that span.
Over the last two seasons, games played on a Thursday are 19-10 to the over.
Commanders Late Struggles
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
- 1Q ATS: 7-3
- 2Q ATS: 7-3
- 3Q ATS: 7-3
- 4Q ATS: 2-8
The A.J. Brown Difference
➤The Eagles have played nine games this season and are 6-0 SU when A.J. Brown has played, averaging 30.2 points per game. When he's been out, they're 1-2 and averaging 17.3 points.
The Good and The Bad
➤Eagles haven’t covered the spread in six straight home games, which is their longest streak since failing to cover 10 in a row at home back in 2012-13.
➤This will be the 12th home night game that Jalen Hurts will play with the Eagles. He's 8-2-1 ATS in those games, sixth-best of any QB since 2003 — the only QBs ahead of him are Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees.
So Good It Hurts
➤Lately we’ve seen a great Jalen Hurts. In his last five games, the Eagles are 5-0 SU and he's second in EPA/play, Y/A and success rate, and he's first in CPOE with 16 total TDs and one INTs.
Never Safe
➤When the Eagles lead, they’ve had issues holding and covering. In the last two seasons, when Philly is a favorite and leads by 10 or more points at any point in the game, they're still just 6-6-2 ATS. That's tied with the Titans for the lowest ATS mark for teams in that situation.
The Big Fade
➤The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-21-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,338, That makes Chicago the least profitable team vs. its own division in the NFL in that span. The Jets are second-worst on that list.
Road Rest
➤The Packers are coming off a bye this week and on the road in Chicago. Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 ATS (60%) since 2004.
On extended prep, Matt LaFleur is 7-3 ATS when favored by four pts or more. Over the last 20 years, that’s the fourth-best mark of 99 head coaches. Overall, he’s 14-10 ATS on extra rest during the season with the Packers.
We'll Stay Home
➤Since the start of last season, the Bears are 14-29 SU. They're 4-4 SU at night and 10-25 SU in all other spots.
The Bears' recent historic road woes have now been noticed by bettors. They’ve lost 19 consecutive road games SU on a Sunday. They are 0-4 SU on the road this year and 3-18 SU last three years.
This year, the Bears are 3-1 SU at home and 8-4 since the start of last season.
Not A Rivalry
➤Since the 2009 season, the Bears have only been favored to beat the Packers four times in a total of 31 meetings. Over the last 20 years, the Bears are a putrid 12-30-1 ATS (29%) against the Packers. A $100 bettor would be down $1,873. Their next closest worst opponent would be Washington, against which Chicago is 3-9 ATS (-$620) against.
The Bears have lost 10 consecutive games both SU and ATS vs. the Packers entering this week. Chicago hasn’t covered or won against Green Bay since 2018.
Sack Lunch
➤Caleb Williams has been sacked 38 times through 10 weeks — most for any QB this season.
Through Week 10, it's the most any Bears QB since sacks tracked. Only David Carr in 2002 has been sacked more as a rookie, and only Sam Howell last season was sacked more since 2010.
Love's Big Favorite
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 4-6 ATS as a favorite in his short career and 10-7 ATS as an underdog.
In Love’s 27-start NFL career, he’s never closed as a favorite or more than 5.5 points.
Jacksonville Again
➤Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December of 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.
Goff Loves Home
➤Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 3-1 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 33-19-2 ATS (64%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
Big Favorite
➤In his career, Goff has closed as a double-digit favorite 11 times. His teams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS. This would be the second time since joining the Lions he closes as a double-digit favorite after beating the Titans 52-14 a few weeks ago.
After the Lions fail to cover in their previous game, Goff is 14-4 ATS with Detroit, including 9-2 ATS at home.
Doug's Tough Test
➤As an underdog of a TD or more, Doug Pederson was 3-5 SU with the Eagles. With the Jaguars he is 0-4 SU.
If Mac Jones gets the start, he is 4-15 ATS in his last 19 starts as an underdog after covering last week vs. Vikings. Jones is 3-18 SU as an underdog in the NFL.
Pederson and the Jaguars have lost seven consecutive road games outright and that has been an Achilles heel for Pederson, who is 24-38 SU on the road and 38-24-1 SU at home in his career.
Don't Forget
➤Goff threw five interceptions last week against the Texans. Teams to throw four or more INT in their previous game are just 31-47-2 ATS (40%) in their next game dating back to 2013, including 13-27-2 ATS as a favorite.
Late Struggles
➤Titans were +3.5 against the second-half spread last week vs. Chargers and lost by four in the second half. Will Levis dropped to 2-13 (13%) against the 2H spread in his career, including 0-13 2H ATS outside of MNF.
Levis' Poor Record
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-11 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-8 SU/ATS as a starter. He has scored more than 17 points once in those nine games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he's 2-10 SU/ATS as a starter.
Flores Shines
➤The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year, ranking first in EPA/play, second in success rate, third EPA/dropback and first EPA/rush.
In one fewer game played, the Vikings still have 14 more QB pressures than any other team, with the second-highest pressure percentage in the NFL and the highest blitz percentage.
As a defensive coordinator and head coach, Flores has faced an offense scoring 20 points per game or less 23 times. His teams are 13-9-1 ATS in those games.
Vikings defense has been stout last two games, allowing 13 points and seven points. Since 2010, teams to allow 14 points or fewer in two straight games are 166-217-8 (43.3%) against the first-half spread in their next game.
Large Number
➤In his NFL career, Sam Darnold has closed as a favorite of a field goal or more 10 times. His teams are 5-5 SU and 3-7 ATS in those games, failing to cover by 6.3 points per game.
Darnold's Turnaround
➤What an amazing turnaround for Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season:
21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog this year.
Rested Defense
➤The Raiders are coming off their bye and playing on the road in Miami. This is the Raiders' first game on extended rest since Week 1.
One thing we’ve seen from Antonio Pierce-coached teams is that on extended rest, the defense shows up, allowing 17 total points to the Chiefs and Vikings last year.
Can They Cover?
➤The Raiders are on a five-game SU losing streak and coming off a bye week. Over the last 20 years, teams off a SU losing streak of five or more games & a bye are 11-17 SU but 19-9-1 ATS, covering the spread by 3.5 points per game.
Doing His Job
➤As coach of the Raiders, Pierce’s team has been a 'dog of 3.5 or more on the road six times and are 5-1. That one loss, the defense gave up 41 points.
Can't Cover
➤Gardner Minshew has started 19 games as a road underdog and is is 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS. That 6-13 ATS mark is the worst of 114 QBs since Minshew made his first start.
Good Bounce
➤Since the start of last season, the Dolphins have played three home games directly after a night game the previous week and are 3-0 SU/ATS. They were favored in all three and scored 30 or more points in each.
No Sun
➤Miami is usually a dominant, tough team to beat at home.
Entering this game, the Dolphins have lost three in a row SU/ATS and overall. Miami has lost five straight home ATS dating back to last season.
Miami hasn’t lost five in a row at home ATS since 2010-11, where they lost seven straight. Dolphins haven’t lost four consecutive games SU/ATS at home within the same season since 2010.
Perfect Tua
➤Overall in Tua Tagovailoa’s pro career, he has closed as a favorite of six or more points 14 times. Miami is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in those games, with its only SU loss coming to the Titans on Monday Night Football last season. That makes the Dolphins 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS outside of that night/primetime window in this spot.
Pick Me Up
➤Matthew Stafford has thrown an INT now in six straight games, tied for the longest streak of his career and the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind Jordan Love (eight straight).
Unfamiliar Territory
➤Sean McVay is 18-5 SU as a favorite against the AFC as coach of the Rams, and he's 10-2 against the AFC on the road.
As a big favorite on the road, McVay has been nearly flawless. As a favorite of six or more points, McVay is 13-0 SU away from home, including 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than four points.
Short Hand
➤On the other end, Jerod Mayo has faced an opponent on short rest twice already with New England, and his team is 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 points per game. Patriots scored 13 total points in those games.
Best of the Best
➤In terms of preparing teams for a game on short rest and prep, no coach is better than McVay.
In his coaching career, he’s 14-6 ATS on short rest, covering five straight games and going 10-1 ATS in his last 11 games in this spot. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 6-1 ATS on short rest.
Down Early
➤The Patriots have had first-half issues this year at 3-7 1H ATS, which ties Mayo for the worst head-coaching record in that spot with Dave Canales. Since 2020, New England is 13-22-1 1H ATS at home, the third-worst mark for any team in the NFL ahead of just the Cardinals and Steelers.
A Good Spot
➤Rams are off a home loss as a favorite last week and are now road favorites of a field goal or more. Those such teams are 95-68-7 ATS (58%) since 2003. Those teams are 5-2 ATS this season and 29-15-2 ATS since 2020.
Stafford's Struggles
➤Stafford is 12-21-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022, which is the third-worst mark in the NFL. Since 2019, he is 29-48-2 2H ATS, the second-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Justin Herbert.
Stafford is 2-2 2H ATS on the road this year but hasn’t finished a season above .500 2H ATS on the road since 2018, which was the only year he has done so dating back to 2012.
Avoiding Carr
➤The Saints beat the Falcons last week after firing Dennis Allen. In Derek Carr’s career, he is 29-41-1 ATS after a SU win, the third-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003. The only active QB worse is Kirk Cousins.
When Carr is coming off a SU win as an underdog, he's 15-22 ATS in his career.
Back To Reality
➤Last week vs. Falcons, Saints broke a five-game losing streak both SU and ATS. Teams after breaking a skid SU and ATS of five or more games are just 14-31 SU in their next game since 1990.
It Doesn't Help Stefanski
➤On extended prep, Kevin Stefanski is just 5-9 ATS as a head coach. He's .500 ATS or worse in all four seasons in this spot.
Of 64 head coaches since he got hired, he ranks 60th. On a full bye, Stefanski is 3-1 SU, but just 1-3 ATS, losing his only game coming off a bye on the road in Miami in 2022.
Jameis Toss Up
➤One of Jameis Winston’s Achilles heels has been playing tight spread games. In his career, he is 13-24-3 ATS when the spread is three or fewer points either way. Of 244 QBs since 2003, he's the least profitable one.
Consistency has always been an issue with Winston, he hasn’t covered the spread in consecutive starts since December 2019.
Away From New Orleans
➤Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistent as a road team than as a home team.
They're 22-34 ATS at home and 34-22-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral), the fifth-best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the second-worst home team.
Different Year
➤The Browns are allowing a yards per attempt average of 7.64 on defense, which is the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Last year, that was 5.89, the second-best mark in the league. Even in 2022, it was 6.83 and in 2021, it was 6.44.
Old Friends
➤Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco have faced each other three times in their long careers. Rodgers is 3-0 SU/ATS against Flacco.
2019: Packers -7 beat Broncos 27-16
2013: Packers -1 beat Ravens 19-17
2009: Packers -4 beat Ravens 27-14
Bye Bob
➤The Jets defense has been the story since Robert Saleh was fired by New York.
Since Week 6, Jets are dead last in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, 29th in pass EPA and 30th in rush EPA. Jets have allowed the sixth-most points since Week 6 and have only forced one turnover.
Rare Jets Spot
➤The Jets are favored again. Only three teams since 2017, including the Jets, have been favored in five straight games where that final, fifth game they had a win percentage of 30% or less – the 2023 Bengals and 2018 Steelers, who both missed the playoffs.
Bad Rodgers
Rodgers owns the fourth-worst completion percentage above expected for any qualified QB this year, ahead of just Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and Jacoby Brissett.
Here are Rodgers' CPOE and aDOT in his last five seasons:
2024: -2.4 and 6.9
2022: 0.5 and 8.2
2021: 5.8 and 7.8
2020: 7.2 and 8.0
2019: 0.7 and 8.9
Showing MetLife
➤Rodgers has been a better QB at home vs. road this year.
Home: 2-2 SU/ATS, 67% completion percentage, seven touchdowns, one interception, 100.2 QB rating
Road: 1-5 SU/ATS, 59% completion percentage, eight touchdowns, six interceptions, 77.5 QB rating
Same Old Jets
➤Jeff Ulbrich has began his Jets stint 1-4 ATS. There have now been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none have been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
Giving It Away
➤Colts have turned the ball over at least twice in three straight games. Teams to play on the road after turning it over at least twice in three or more consecutive games are 40-72 SU, 51-60-1 ATS over the last decade. The Jaguars are also in this spot this week.
Bad Joe
➤Two different Flaccos. Between 2008-14, he was 19-28 SU as an underdog, which is a great record. Since 2015, he’s 7-28 SU, including 2-12 SU since 2020.
As an underdog of three or more points, Flacco is just 1-14 SU in his last 15 starts, including 2-16 SU since 2019.
Steichen Advantage
➤The Colts have played 18 one-score games under Shane Steichen, and they're 10-8 SU and 13-5 ATS.
Dog Eat Dog
➤Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 28-10-3 ATS (74%).
- In the regular season, when the line is three or more points, the underdog is 22-4-3 ATS in this series last 20 years.
- The underdog is 15-2-1 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 5.7 points per game.
- In the regular season, the underdog is 23-6-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
Rivalry Renewed
➤Mike Tomlin is 20-15 SU, 18-14-3 ATS vs. John Harbaugh.
When he’s favorite, he's 6-12-1 ATS. When he’s the 'dog, he's 12-2-2 ATS.
Keep It Going
➤Tomlin is 3-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season. His 62-35-4 ATS record as an underdog makes him the most profitable coach ATS as a 'dog over the last 20 years.
In his career, Tomlin is actually 52-49 SU as an underdog, with a bettor holding a 30% ROI in those games.
Black and Blue
➤Underdogs in AFC North divisional games have been a cash cow. They're 47-31 ATS (60%) since 2018, best of any division, they're .500 ATS or better in 7 straight seasons and they are 25-16 ATS since 2021.
Close As Can Be
➤Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
Since the start of 2015, Steelers-Ravens have played 18 games, 15 of those 18 games had a final margin of seven or fewer points.
Comeback Kids
➤Ravens are 3-1 SU this season when trailing by 10 or more points at any point. The rest of the NFL is 18-107 SU (14.4%) in that spot.
The Ravens, Chiefs and Lions are 6-1 SU when trailing by 10+ points at any point, and rest of the NFL is 15-107 (12.3%).
Not An Advantage
➤Lamar Jackson has played on extended rest during the season 19 times in his pro career and he is 14-5 SU but just 8-11 ATS in those games, including 6-11 ATS when listed as a favorite.
When he faces a divisional opponent off rest, Jackson is 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS, including 0-1 SU.ATS vs. Steelers – a home game in 2020.
Harbaugh Prep
➤On the more positive side, John Harbaugh has been incredible playing on the road with extra prep. 40-19 SU in his coaching career – 19-9 SU at home, 21-10 SU road/neutral.
ATS is a different story. He’s 10-18 ATS at home on extended prep and 22-7-2 ATS road/neutral. The 22-7-2 ATS mark is the best for any head coach last 20 years, ahead of Andy Reid.
In road games on extended prep, Harbaugh is also 6-0 SU/ATS with Jackson as his QB, covering the spread by 14.5 points per game.
Jackson Early
Jackson is 56-35-2 against the first half spread in his career, making him the best quarterback against the spread in the first in the last 20 years (262 QBs).
Where Jackson really does his damage is away from home. He's 31-13-1 against the first half spread in his career road/neutral but just 25-22-1 1H ATS at home.
Through The Roof
Steelers-Ravens over/under is 48 this week — the 2nd-highest total in the series history, behind a total of 51 back in 2018.
Moving On
➤Not hard to get over Kansas City. Broncos have won eight consecutive games outright in their game directly after facing one of their division rival in the Chiefs — and they're 7-1 ATS in those games, too.
Different People
➤Here is how Kirk Cousins has performed career of a SU win and loss:
- Win: 33-45-2 ATS (second-worst of 244 QBs since 2003)
- Loss: 41-26 ATS (fifth-best of 280 QBs since 2003)
Over the last decade, Cousins is 39-21 ATS after a SU loss, the most-profitable QB in the NFL.
When Cousins is listed as an underdog after a SU loss, he's 24-11 ATS in his career, including 12-4 ATS with the Falcons and Vikings.
Getting Late
➤In 2024, Falcons are 2-0 SU in games on the road later than the 1 p.m. ET window. A trend unlike Cousins. Entering 2024, Kirk was 9-22 SU career in this spot.
Road Duck
➤In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he's 5-1 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 6.4 points per game. Nix is 2-2 ATS at home.
In his career, Sean Payton is 82-59-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site. How about at home? The Broncos are 2-2 ATS this year and 9-12 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 21-28 ATS.
Good Role
➤Nix has only closed as a favorite three times in his 10 career starts, and he is 3-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.5 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year (minimum starts).
Fireworks
➤Cousins has faced a Sean Payton-coached team five times in his NFL career. He's 3-2 ATS but more importantly has scored 33, 26, 20, 31 and 47 points against Payton's teams.
Different Narrative
➤In outdoor games, Cousins has won six starts in a row outright and is 11-3 SU over the last three seasons.
No Pressure
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through 10 games, Grady Jarrett leads Atlanta with 2.5 sacks. On the season, the Falcons have just nine sacks in 10 games. Since 2010, these Falcons, 2020 Jaguars and 2018 Raiders are only teams with fewer than 10 sacks through 10 games. No team with fewer than 10 sacks through 10 games has ever made the playoffs.
West Battle
➤The 49ers have dominated this series recently. They’ve beaten the Seahawks in six straight games outright, going 5-1 ATS in those games.
The last Seattle QB to beat San Francisco? Russell Wilson in 2021. Prior to this six-game stretch, Kyle Shanahan began his 49ers coaching career 2-8 SU and 4-6 ATS vs. the Seahawks.
All Makes Sense
➤Shanahan is 77-59 SU in his career with the 49ers. When his opponent is off a bye week, he is 7-9 SU.
Covering Numbers
➤Brock Purdy is 19-17 ATS in his NFL career. When he’s favored by four or more points, he’s 11-14 ATS. When he’s favored by 3.5 or fewer points or is an underdog, Purdy is 8-3 ATS.
Purdy is 7-4 ATS vs. NFC West opponents but just 12-13 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
Unreal Stretch
➤In over 800 pass attempts since the start of last season, Purdy is averaging nine yds per pass attempt, the best mark in the NFL by 0.6 yards over second-place Lamar Jackson.
Bounce House
➤Seahawks are coming off a bye after consecutive losses at home. In the Wild Card era, that has only happened 18 total times. Those teams are 12-5-1 ATS after that bye week.
Tough Matchup
➤In Geno Smith’s career, he's 0-5 SU/ATS vs. Kyle Shanahan, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 points per game.
Week-To-Week for Geno
➤Smith craves normalcy. He is 22-20 SU in his career on seven days of prep, Sunday to Sunday.
On short rest in his career, he's 3-11 SU. On extended rest, he's 5-10 SU for a combined 8-21 SU in his career.
Through The Roof
➤Totals of 50+ are 8-5 to the under this season. Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 20-9 to the under and last three years they are 38-19 to the under (67%).
Red Area
➤Overall, with a bunch of injuries this season, the 49ers have struggled mightily in the red zone. They're one of six teams below 50%, with the Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Cowboys and Giants.
Last year, San Francisco had the best red-zone percentage of 67.2% in the NFL.
Going For Four
➤Patrick Mahomes is 4-3 SU/ATS vs. Josh Allen. Entering the game, Allen is tied with Joe Burrow and Tom Brady for the most wins against Mahomes in his career.
King Dog
➤Mahomes is 11-3 straight up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts.
Mahomes’ only ATS loss as an underdog came in 2022 at home against Josh Allen and the Bills, losing 24-20 as a 2.5-point underdog.
Mahomes is 25-10 SU, 26-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog.
Undefeated Underdog
➤The 9-0 Chiefs are underdogs vs. the Bills this week. This is just the fourth time in the Super Bowl era a 9-0 SU or better team is listed as an underdog — 2013 KC, 1985 Bears and 1969 Rams.
Kansas City has been great as underdogs beyond Mahomes. The Chiefs 18-5-1 ATS as dogs since 2016, including 17-7 SU as 'dogs in that span.
The Chiefs and Steelers are the only two teams above .500 SU as underdogs since 2016.
Small Margins
➤Chiefs are the 32nd team ever to start a season 9-0 and have the smallest point per game differential for those teams with +6.4. Only other team below +7 was the 2006 Colts (+6.7).
Escape While You Can
➤We know Mahomes is Houdini. He's 19-14 SU (57.6%) when trailing by 10 or more points at any point in the game. The next closest win percentage for any QB is Tom Brady at about 38%.
Since 2021, teams who come back from 10 or more down the week before win just 48.6% of games and cover 45%. The Chiefs are just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in those games.
Mahomes On Road
➤Mahomes is a road warrior. In his career, he's 48-12 SU on the road or neutral site. When he’s -3 or lower, or an underdog, he’s 19-5 SU on the road or a neutral site.
Tight End U
➤This is possibly a good sign for Dalton Kincaid. Opposing tight ends have been getting their catches in vs. Chiefs this season. Cade Otton had eight receptions last week, Brock Bowers five before that, George Kittle had six, Juwan Johnson had five, Gesicki had seven and Isaiah Likely had nine.
Don't Ignore Josh
➤As a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, or an underdog, Josh Allen is 7-3 SU/ATS since 2020, covering the spread by 9.6 points per game. Two of those three losses have come against Patrick Mahomes.
In his career, Allen is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS facing an undefeated team, he's covering the spread by 13.4 points per game in those 10 matchups.
When he’s at home vs. an undefeated team, Allen is 4-0 ATS, covering by 12 points per game.
Rest Up
➤Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. Allen is 35-22-3 ATS on 7 days rest (10th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot). He’s 10-12-1 ATS on short rest and 10-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
Lamar Coming
➤The Chargers have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 70-39 SU (64%) since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2018, which is the best win percentage for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire,” “Lamar is coming.”
Under The Hood
➤Chargers are 7-2 to the under in the full game total this season and 19-7 to the under since the start of last year.
Just look at Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies: In his last three years as a coach in the NFL, the under 28-15-1 in games between the Chargers and 49ers.
Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he's now 17-5 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL. That includes a 17-3 record to the under in his last 20 starts.
This will be Herbert’s highest over/under of the year. Last year, he went 7-3 to the under with a total of 45 or more.
No Adjustment
➤Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career (32.8% ATS), but even more so at night at 4-13-1 2H ATS in his career.
Lack of L.A.
➤Chargers aren’t historically great home teams. Entering this matchup, they’ve covered two in a row at home. Los Angeles hasn't covered the spread – an ATS win – in three straight home games since the 2014 season.
Joe Cool
➤Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog 29 times in his NFL career, and he's 11-17-1 SU and 19-10 ATS in those games. In 2024, he is 2-1 ATS as an underdog and 11-3 ATS as a 'dog in his last 14 starts in that spot.
Burrow has been especially dangerous on the road as a 'dog, going 14-6 ATS in his career and covering the spread by more than four points per game. As an underdog in night games, Burrow is 0-6 SU but 4-2 ATS.
Burrow is only 5-8 SU playing in night games throughout his career. Looking inside the numbers, though, he is 5-2 SU as a favorite and 0-6 SU as an underdog.
Not Again
➤Burrow bounceback? Burow is 18-7-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 16-6-1 ATS in November or earlier.
Since Burrow was drafted, he is the best QB ATS after a SU loss ahead of Jared Goff.
Down DeMeco
➤Texans are 8-2 to the under in the full game total this season, best mark of any team in the NFL. The crazy part? They are going under by only 0.8 points per game.
Half The Way
➤Texans lost the second half, 19-0 last week vs. Lions after blowing a 16-point lead.
This season, Houston is 1-9 against the second-half spread, worst mark in the NFL.
One, Two, Three
➤Texans have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 1-9 ATS in the third quarter, the worst mark in the NFL. Since the start of last season, Houston is just 8-21 ATS in the third quarter under DeMeco Ryans.
Night-Mares
➤Texans are off a home loss on SNF last week and back in primetime again. Teams coming off a home loss in primetime are just 14-37 SU when playing in primetime the next week since 2010.
Block The Sun
➤The Cowboys have allowed 201 total points in their last five home games: 34, 47, 28, 44 and 48.
Dallas has the worst points-per-game differential at home in a single season since the merger right now at -23.5. The 2008 Lions had -22 mark.
Dallas has trailed 14-6, 27-6, 21-6, 35-16 and 27-7 at the half of their last five home games.
2001: A Big Rush
➤Cooper Rush entered his start last week 5-1 SU/ATS in his career. Last week didn’t go so well. Rush had 45 yards passing on 23 pass attempts, becoming the first QB since Anthony Wright in 2001 with 45 or fewer yards on at least 23 pass attempts.
Speaking of 2001, Dallas was a seven-point home underdog last week and is getting north of a touchdown again this week. The Cowboys hasn’t been +7 or higher in consecutive home games since 2001.
QB Matters
➤Mike McCarthy is 147-112-7 ATS with Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre as his QB. He's 17-19 ATS with all other QBs, including just 7-11 ATS at home.
Houston, We Have A Problem
➤This will be C.J. Stroud’s fifth game played at night with the Texans. He’s 2-2 SU but 1-3 ATS. He lost to the Lions and Jets, beat the Bears at home earlier this year as a 6.5-point favorite but didn’t cover and beat the Colts in Indy last year.
Historically, the Texans franchise have been terrible in night games. They're 1-2 ATS in night games this year and 13-30-1 ATS since 2003.
Check The Line
➤What’s becoming a clear angle for Stroud. He’s 8-4 ATS as an underdog and 5-10 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
NFL Betting Systems
System: Bet west coast road teams traveling east.
Matches: LAR, LVR
System: Bad underdogs who are being undervalued on the season.
Matches: CIN, CLE, LVR, CHI, JAC, IND
System: Bet good third down teams on offense.
Matches: BAL, KC, CIN
System: Hold your breath and dive in.
Matches: DAL
