Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 11 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 11 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 11 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. 49ers
Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 85.2%
T-2. Vikings
Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
T-2. Raiders
Matchup: vs. CIN
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
4. Bills
Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 74.3%
5. Rams
Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 69.9%
6. Cowboys
Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 68.4%
7. Panthers
Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
8. Ravens
Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 65.2%
T-9. Saints
Matchup: @ TB
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-9. Chiefs
Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
11. Patriots
Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 62%
12. Colts
Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
13. Browns
Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
14. Redskins
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
15. Jets
Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
16. Steelers
Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
17. Jaguars
Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
18. Eagles
Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 38%
19. Buccaneers
Matchup: vs. NO
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
19. Chargers
Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
21. Texans
Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 34.8%
22. Falcons
Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
23. Bears
Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 30.1%
24. Lions
Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
24. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 25.7%
26. Broncos
Matchup: @ MIN
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
26. Bengals
Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
28. Cardinals
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 14.8%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Buccaneers
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: vs. NO
T-2. Bears
Spread: +6.5
Opponent: @ LAR
T-2. Bengals
Spread: +10.5
Opponent: @ OAK
4. 49ers
Spread: -11
Opponent: vs. ARI
5. Eagles
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. NE
6. Chiefs
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAC
T-7. Bills
Spread: -6
Opponent: @ MIA
T-7. Broncos
Spread: +10.5
Opponent: @ MIN
9. Falcons
Spread: +5.5
Opponent: @ CAR
T-10. Browns
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. PIT
T-10. Jaguars
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ IND
T-10. Redskins
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ
13. Lions
Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. DAL
T-14. Ravens
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. HOU
T-14. Texans
Spread: +4.5
Opponent: @ BAL
16. Cowboys
Spread: -6
Opponent: @ DET
T-17. Jets
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: @ WAS
T-17. Colts
Spread: -2.5
Opponent: vs. JAX
T-17. Steelers
Spread: +2.5
Opponent: @ CLE
20. Panthers
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: vs. ATL
T-21. Vikings
Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. DEN
T-21. Dolphins
Spread: +6
Opponent: vs. BUF
23. Chargers
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. KC
24. Patriots
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ PHI
25. Cardinals
Spread: +11
Opponent: @ SF
T-26. Raiders
Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. CIN
T-26. Rams
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. CHI
28. Saints
Spread: -5.5
Opponent: @ TB
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
