It's the Sunday before Thanksgiving, which means we're really hitting the home stretch.
One game was snowed out due to 77 inches of fluff and was moved to Detroit, and there's more inclement weather to come. The Year of the Underdog also continues, with all but three games falling in that dangerous 3- to 10-point window I discussed on Tuesday.
Now, it's time to lock in some final picks for Week 11.
No changes to any sides below, but I'm downgrading a couple positions. We don't have to go hard every week, and I'm just not feeling as certain for the slate this week. Here are our downgrades:
- Patriots, from Bet to Lean: The line dropped from -3 to -3.5 at every book, and in a tough division game with a low total and two great defenses, that's meaningful. I still like New England, but it's not a top play past the key number.
- Bills, from Lean to Pass: I bought out of my Hot Read position earlier this week amidst all the snow uncertainty. The game has since moved to Detroit so weather is no longer a factor. However, the Bills defense hasn't gotten as healthy as I expected and this line has bounced all over the place and just feels like a weird spot for both sides. I think I'll sit this one out.
We've already made decisions for every other game, so check the full explanations there. Let's recap those Bet, Lean and Pass decisions now that the lines have shifted and then get to our final four decisions.
Bet
- Steelers +4 and ML +170 vs Bengals
- Bears TT over 22.5 (and Lean +3) at Falcons
Lean
- Eagles -6.5 at Colts (and Eagles 1H)
- Patriots -3.5 vs Jets
- Cowboys -1.5 at Vikings
- Giants -3 vs Lions
Pass
- Bills -7.5 vs Browns
- Ravens -13 vs Panthers
- Raiders +3 at Broncos
Week 12 Lookahead Picks
- Ravens (-3.5) at Jaguars
- Bucs (-3) at Browns
Matthew Stafford cleared concussion protocol and will play — he might be just about the only one, though.
The Rams are missing four of their five lineman and their only real weapon, Cooper Kupp. The once-vaunted Saints defense will be without Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport on the line, as well as corners Marshon Lattimore and Bradley Roby. These teams are a mess, the remnants of what's left over when you eschew draft picks and go all-in year after year. They're the "after" picture.
Both defenses are much better than their counterparts at this point, so the under still feels best. We grabbed that at 42.5 on last week's Lookahead and got great value on a line that's down four points.
Beyond that, I don't need to play. If you need a pick, I'll fade Andy Dalton, who is now 5-18 ATS (22%) as a favorite of under a field goal, with eight straight failed covers.
The Pick: Rams +2.5 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for Stafford injury news
Are the Commanders … not terrible?
Washington has won four of its last five and just played its best game of the season, dominating the previously unbeaten Eagles on the road on Monday Night Football. Chase Young is back to add to an already solid defense while Taylor Heinicke keeps the starting quarterback job for now.
Heinicke is 9-2-1 ATS in his last 12 starts, and though he's quite turnover prone, there's one thing he does way better than Carson Wentz: Throwing the ball toward Terry McLaurin.
McLaurin is Washington's best weapon, and he's up to nine targets and 90 yards per game these last four weeks, a 50% increase from his previous production. That could be even more glaring against a Texans team missing rookie corner Derek Stingley Jr..
This game didn't interest me much, but with a line this short, I feel comfortable taking the team that's somewhat decent over the one worst rosters in the league.
Over the past decade, teams that beat division opponents by more than a field goal before playing again on a short week are 70-44-2 ATS (61%). In other words, back the team that's flying high.
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Gotta be honest, I'm tired of writing about the Chargers every Saturday after desperately searching the internet for news on 19 injured players. I'm just done with them in general.
This team ran 22 first-down plays last week; only four of them went for more than two yards. That is truly horrendous and at the feet of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, but it doesn't help the team doesn't have any capable receivers.
Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams practiced this week but remain questionable. The Chiefs will be without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman as well, so we're short a lot of weapons here.
The Chargers are still missing Joey Bosa and J.C. Jackson, and they're just about out of healthy D-linemen. They rank 30th in DVOA over the last five weeks, with the same rank on offense. They don't have a win over a team at .500 or better, and all but one win came by under a TD. I'm just not sure this team is good.
The Chiefs have won 14 of 17 in the rivalry, but the Chargers have kept this within one score in five straight. Brandon Staley usually has something up his sleeve to help his team hang around, and he's 5-2 ATS as an underdog. L.A.'s pass defense has held up, so maybe Staley's guys can keep this low scoring enough to hang close.
I don't need to play a side, especially with this in-between line. Justin Herbert is an awful 11-28-2 ATS (28%) in the second half for his career, so I'll probably wait to play live and hunt a spot to grab the Chiefs if the Chargers hang early.
Instead, I lean under with a total at 52 that doesn't seem to have adjusted for all the receiving injuries.
Staley is 6-2 to the under (75%) with a total at 51 or above, and unders for home underdogs this season are 42-18 (70%). The Chargers are scoring only 19.5 PPG over their last four games. Unless both Allen and Williams are a go, I'm just not sure they have the firepower keep up.
The Pick: Chiefs -5.5 (Pass) and Lean Under 52 | Previously: Wait for Chargers injury update
I'm going out on a limb and backing the Cards in Mexico City.
This could go poorly. Kyler Murray is still a question mark with a hamstring injury. DeAndre Hopkins was a late injury report add, and we don't know if he or Marquise Brown will go. It looks like Arizona could be short as many as three offensive linemen; Budda Baker and Byron Murphy are question marks in the secondary. Gulp.
Still, I can't get past this number. It's just too long, injuries or not.
Jimmy Garoppolo is 1-6-1 ATS as more than a TD favorite, and Kyle Shanahan teams are rarely great as favorites.
He's 17-28-1 ATS (38%) as a favorite, and he's also an ugly 2-7-1 ATS against the Cardinals lifetime. In fact, Arizona has won 11 of 14 in this rivalry, despite all of San Francisco's recent success. He's also 3-6 ATS against backup quarterbacks, losing all three games the last two seasons, including one November game against Colt McCoy.
This is also typically the right spot to back Kliff Kingsbury. He's 16-4-2 ATS (80%) as an underdog away from home, winning nine of the last 10 outright. He's also an incredible 13-1-1 ATS (93%) as an underdog against coaches who have never won a Super Bowl, covering by 10.1 PPG.
Some matchups just work. The Cards fall squarely into that 3-to-10 underdog range too. That group covers 65% of the time, and that increases to 73% in division games and 73% when a team is getting under half the spread tickets (like Arizona).
The Cardinals are a risk because of the various injuries, but there's real risk in backing the 49ers, too. They don't have an impressive win on the schedule over the last two months — they've lost to the Falcons, Bears and Broncos. The defense is down to 26th in DVOA the last five games, below Arizona, and the line is besieged by injuries. This is just too much credit to give a still-theoretical team.
You may be inclined to wait for more injury clarity, and I get it. If Murray and Hopkins end up playing, this line probably drops to a TD or below, closer to where it ought to be.
Do we get double digits with McCoy? I'm not sure it gets there, so I'd rather gamble on the high line now and get the extra points.
Garoppolo and Shanahan simply haven't earned my trust.
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