What a Sunday of football we're in for, and we have NFL predictions for you throughout the afternoon.
Each slate has a marquee game: Ravens vs. Steelers at 1 p.m. ET and Chiefs vs. Bills at 4:25. Those games will have a huge impact on the AFC, and it will be the Chiefs' biggest test yet as they look to remain unbeaten.
We have a pick for Ravens-Steelers and two more games as part of the early slate. Then, we have a bet on Seahawks vs. 49ers and an expert making the case for either side of Chiefs vs. Bills.
Let's get into our NFL picks for this week's Sunday afternoon slate.
NFL Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ravens vs. Steelers Pick: Take the Points
By Simon Hunter
Over the years, I've learned my lesson about overthinking who the better quarterback is when these teams meet. It doesn't matter if the Ravens are playing their third-string quarterback or if the Steelers have Mason Rudolph facing Lamar Jackson.
When the Ravens and Steelers face off, you take the points. Trust the trends and don't overthink it.
Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 28-10-3 (74%) agains the spread (ATS). When the line is three or more points, the 'dog is 22-4-3. Since 2015, the underdog in this game is 15-2-1 and covering by 5.7 points per game. When Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, the 'dog is 23-6-3 ATS.
The Steelers finally have a veteran quarterback they can rely one, one they've been looking for since Ben Roethlisberger retired. Tomlin and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have stuck their neck out for Wilson, who has won all three of his starts and has this Steelers offense humming.
This game will give one team a significant leg up in the AFC North. A win for Pittsburgh would put it 1 1/2 games ahead with the head-to-head advantage.
I think we'll get an ugly, back-and-forth game here, and that's when you want to get a field goal. I'd be sure to shop around and get Steelers +3.5 if possible since we'll need every point or half point against Jackson.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-122)
Browns vs. Saints Pick: Cleveland Will Bounce Back
By Nick Giffen
I have Cleveland as the better team in this matchup, even after adjusting for home-field advantage.
In two games with Jameis Winston under center, the Browns have put up just 39 points. However, they've been much better than that, totaling over 50 in the two games by our Expected Score metric, which powers our NFL Luck Rankings. And that comes against two defenses (Ravens and Chargers) that grade out as tougher than league average.
Cleveland also benefits in three other areas.
First, the Browns have a big edge in expected early-down success rate improvement because the Saints defense has been awful, especially as of late in allowing opponents to be successful on first and second down 50% of the time over their last six games. That's 8.5% higher than the last five opponents the Browns have faced. The Saints, on the other hand, face a Browns team that's been in line with the recent teams New Orleans has played.
Next, the QB matchup favors Winston. According to Fantasy Points data, Winston has a +12% coverage grade, which means he's fared about 12% better against the coverages the Saints tend to use than the coverages he's faced so far this year. We should be wary with a small sample size for Winston, but it's another data point in the right direction. On the flip side, Derek Carr has played enough to feel confident about his -6% rating in this same metric.
Finally, while these two teams are relatively equal in our Luck Rankings which compares Expected Scores to win-loss record, there is a bigger gap in Scoring Luck. The Browns have been nearly 13% less luckier than the Saints in scoring luck. If we just use Winston's two starts as a sample size, that gap jumps to a shade under 33%.
Give me the Browns to win outright coming off their bye week.
Pick: Browns ML (-110)
Raiders vs. Dolphins Pick: Total Mismatch
The Dolphins defense is rounding into form as Miami tries to make their push back into the playoff race. The Dolphins have turned in two consecutive impressive performances, limiting both Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford to fewer than six yards per pass attempt in the passing game. Miami's resurgent pass defense spells disaster for an extremely one dimensional Raiders offense.
Las Vegas is dead last in the NFL in adjusted line yards per rush and rushing success rate this season. The only thing worse offensively than using an unsuccessful quarterback rotation is trying to make a rotation work when the entire offenses rests on a passer without the semblance of a running game to help put them in short down-and-distance situations.
The Raiders defense is also going to have a rough day. Las Vegas' defense generates a 29% pressure rate on opposing passers, ranking them 28th. The Raiders are taking on an offense that may seem to lack an explosive element right now, but make up for it with efficiency. Miami has the best third-down-conversion rate in football when Tua Tagovailoa has been healthy.
The Raiders have trailed by double digits in a part of every game this season. Once it happens again on Sunday, the rejuvenated Miami defense will close the show.
Pick: Dolphins -7 (-112)
Seahawks vs. 49ers Pick: San Fran Will Take Care of Business
By Sam Farley
Only one win separates the Seahawks and 49ers in the NFC West, but the Niners are a scary proposition for anyone in the NFL right now.
The San Francisco defense is always good and ranks in the top third of the NFL against both the pass and the rush. That defensive platform gives their offense the chance to shine. With Christian McCaffrey returning and the offense getting healthier San Francisco will start blowing teams out again.
The Niners won by 12 points in Seattle just four games ago, and I'm expecting that we'll see something similar here.
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Bills Pick: The Case for Buffalo
The Chiefs have led for fewer than 40% of their snaps in the 2024 but are 9-0 heading into a crucial matchup with the Bills that could decide home-field advantage in the AFC. While Patrick Mahomes has thrived throughout his entire career as an underdog, this team is not going to finish the season undefeated.
This will be the game that trips the two-time-reigning champs up.
Josh Allen may be without some of his top pass catchers, but the Chiefs pass defense has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. Their recent opponents of Bo Nix, Gardner Minshew, and Baker Mayfield without his top weapons still managed to complete better than 75% of their passes.
To further ease your concern about the Bills' passing attack, 53% of all passing yards against the Chiefs have come after the catch, the eighth most in football. This means that even if Allen is featuring James Cook, Curtis Samuel, Ray Davis and others on short passes, there will still be opportunities to generate chain-moving gains.
For all of the trends backing Mahomes in this spot, Josh Allen isn't too far behind when it comes to winning games in closely lined contests. Allen is 15-7 (68.2%) against the spread in his career in all games lined within a field goal (-2.5 to +2.5). When Buffalo has faced a team with a winning record in this situation, they are 9-3 (75%) against the number with Allen under center.
Pick: Bills -2 (-110)
Chiefs vs. Bills: The Case for Kansas City
By Simon Hunter
This is another spot that features a great matchup for the Chiefs.
People don't trust this Chiefs team. I don't know if I can handle seeing any more people call Kansas City the luckest and most overrated 9-0 team in NFL history. Is it really shocking that the team that has won back-to-back Super Bowl is winning close games?
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is out for Buffalo, and Amari Cooper's status is up in the air. Kansas City, meanwhile, is without RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice, and kicker Harrison Butker will be a big miss.
I'm not worried on the Kansas City side, though. With experienced coaches running both sides of the ball, I'm comfortable abiding by the rule of "We bet Mahomes as an underdog."
Mahomes is 11-3 straight-up as an underdog and 12-1-1 against the spread. When the spread is Chiefs -2.5 or they're an underdog, Mahomes is 25-10 straight-up and 26-8-1 against the spread.
We fade Mahomes as a big favorite and bet him as an underdog. It's pretty simple. Kansas City generally plays to the level of its competition, while the Bills have struggled against the playoff teams from last season that it has faced already this season, losing to the Texans and getting blown out by the Ravens. Buffalo also barely beat the Dolphins two weeks ago.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-110)
