Every week during the 2024 season, I share my three favorite NFL picks against the spread (ATS) on my betting card for every Sunday slate.
For reference, here are my season-long records.
- 2023: 37-17
- 2024: 11-18-1
- Overall: 48-35-1 (57.8%)
It's time to finally pick it up in 2024. Here are my expert NFL predictions and Week 11 picks for Sunday.
NFL Predictions: Week 10
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Browns vs. Saints
Prediction: Browns ML (-110)
This sets up as a nice spot for the Browns, who enjoyed a bye week ahead of their trip to the Big Easy. I'm sure Jameis Winston will also have the team fired up for his return to the Superdome, so I don't think motivation will be an issue for the 2-7 Browns.
Yes, the Saints pulled off a small upset last week over the division-rival Falcons in Darren Rizzi's first game as interim coach. However, I can say as someone who bet on New Orleans, it was a very fortunate win. The Falcons finished with more than 100 more yards of offense and a net positive 16% success rate, but they couldn't overcome an uncharacteristic three missed field goals by Younghoe Koo.
I'm also not sure how sustainable deep bombs to Marquez Valdes-Scantling is as a form of offense. In fairness, one of the reasons I backed the Saints was knowing Carr would have time to make plays behind a makeshift offensive line since the Falcons are incapable of generating pressure.
Well, he won't enjoy that same luxury on Sunday against an aggressive Browns defense that ranks sixth in pressure rate. That's key against the immobile Carr, whose production historically falls off a cliff when under duress. I'm sure Carr is already having nightmares about Myles Garrett going up against a rookie left tackle in addition to an interior that will be down a couple of starters.
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who already blitzes at a top-five rate in the league, will have no hesitation sending extra defenders in this matchup, knowing his healthy secondary can match up with a wide receiver corps that is down Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave and Bub Means. On paper, this is one of the worst wide receiver rooms you will see in the NFL.
The Browns recently traded Z'Darius Smith to the Lions and placed linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah on injured reserve, but the rest of the roster appears as healthy as it's been all season. They have one of the shortest injury reports you will ever see for this time of the year.
Most importantly, the offensive line, which has been ravaged by injury in 2024, will be fully intact. That's massive for both Winston and Nick Chubb, who should be closer to full strength following the bye with three games under his belt since returning from injury.
Chubb should have a big day against a beat-up New Orleans defense that has had no answers for opposing ground games. Since Week 2, the Saints rank dead last in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate. For reference, the Cleveland defense ranks 14th and 11th over that span, respectively.
Ultimately, Cleveland can lean on Chubb, which should set up some easy passes for Winston against a Saints secondary that recently traded Marshon Lattimore after already placing Paulson Adebo on injured reserve. The only fear is Winston illogical interceptions, which is always a risk when backing him but one I'm willing to take here with the significantly healthier team coming off of a bye against a decimated Saints team that has yet to have theirs.
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Falcons vs. Broncos
Prediction: Broncos ML (-130)
I think the Falcons are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL at the moment. They come into this road non-conference game sporting a 6-4 record, but could just as easily be sitting at 4-6. In fact, if we reversed both of these team's one-possession results, Atlanta would indeed be 4-6, while the 5-5 Broncos would be 8-2.
While I do have the Broncos power rated slightly ahead of the Falcons, I don't show a ton of value on this spread from a pure power ratings perspective. However, I'm willing to back Denver at home due to the matchup and injury situation for both respective teams.
From a matchup perspective, the Broncos generate as much pressure as any team in the league, ranking No. 1 in Pass Rush Win Rate. They also blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL behind only the Vikings. That's exactly how you throw off the statuesque Cousins, who can still carve up opposing defenses when kept clean. He should be harassed all game here against one of the NFL's best defenses, which may lead to a key mistake or two.
On the other side of the ball, Bo Nix has struggled immensely when under pressure, as you might expect for an inexperienced rookie. However, he likely won't have to worry much about that in this particular matchup against an Atlanta defense that has the second-lowest pressure rate.
Not only should Denver be able to get its ground game going against an Atlanta defense that ranks 28th in Rush Success Rate (look out for a continued increased workload for Audric Estime, who ranks third in the NFL in yards after contact), but Nix should have a clean pocket to work from in front of an offensive line that also ranks No. 1 in Pass Block Win Rate. Both Mike McGlinchey and Garrett Bolles actually rank in the top seven in that category among all offensive tackles, as do both guards and centers among all interior offensive linemen. Nix should have a clean jersey around 7 p.m. ET.
Without any pressure, there's no reason why an improving Nix can't make plays through the air against an Atlanta secondary that will be without two starting cornerbacks in Dee Alford and Mike Hughes. With backup Antonio Hamilton also injured, that means plenty of snaps for Kevin King (yikes) and Clark Phillips. The Falcons are also dealing with a number of injuries at the linebacker position, which really leaves them limited from a depth perspective.
This basically comes down to pressure. Cousins will be under plenty, while Nix should be kept clean. Give me the Broncos at home against a Falcons team that has primarily done most of its damage this season against a weak and beat-up NFC South.
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Seahawks vs. 49ers
Prediction: Seahawks +6.5
This is a great situational spot for the Seahawks, who will come off a bye week with revenge in mind against their divisional rival. I actually think the time off will benefit Seattle more than most teams since they do have a new staff that I value highly. I expect both head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to evaluate what has and hasn't been working then make some key adjustments along with a few wrinkles ahead of this huge swing game for their postseason chances. Seattle also had to deal with a rash of injuries over the first half of the season, so it should come into this game with a much cleaner bill of health.
The defense looks as healthy as it's been since early in the season, while the offense will see the return of DK Metcalf and Abe Lucas. Metcalf, who still leads the league in deep targets even after missing the past two games, not only provides Geno Smith with an explosive downfield option, but he also opens everything else up underneath.
Lucas' presence will be a welcome relief at the right tackle positions, which has been a turnstile all season. Per PFF, out of 76 offensive tackles, Stone Forsythe and Mike Jerrell rank 74th and 75th. Assuming Lucas doesn't have too much rust, the Seahawks are in a much better place when it comes to dealing with edge rusher Nick Bosa, who also isn't 100% healthy.
It is worth noting that tight end Noah Fant will miss this game, but he wouldn't have had a great matchup. My biggest concern is the news that starting center Connor Williams decided to retire from football, which means Olu Oluwatimi will need to step up as the anchor in the middle. The second-year pro out of Michigan has played less than 150 career snaps, so it's certainly a concern. He did only allow one pressure across 68 pass-blocking snaps as a rookie, but his lone start came against the Cardinals. This will obviously be a much stiffer test, but if the interior doesn't completely fall apart, the Seahawks will have plenty of opportunities to move the ball on a mediocre 49ers defense.
Seattle's defensive line and secondary were particularly hit hard by the injury bug, which really hurt them in the first meeting with the 49ers, who did whatever they wanted on offense. Keep in mind that was also a horrific spot for Seattle on a short week with a rookie head coach, which has not fared well historically in their first Thursday night games. Plus, the Seahawks had another short week the week prior after traveling to Detroit on a Monday night and were down a handful of key defensive starters who will all be in the lineup this week.
Now, the roles are reversed with Seattle coming off of its bye and San Francisco traveling back across the country after a hard-fought win in Tampa. Additionally, the 49ers are the team dealing with more injury questions this time around.
Since their last meeting, the 49ers did get Christian McCaffrey back from injury but lost Brandon Aiyuk, and top cornerback Charvarius Ward will miss another game due to personal reasons.
More importantly, the entire left side of the offensive line is questionable with Trent Williams being the big name to watch. The ageless Williams, who remains the best left tackle in the NFL, will test out his ankle pregame to see if he can give it a go. Without him out there (and potentially Aaron Banks at left guard), this offensive line is in trouble against a much healthier Seattle front. Plus, George Kittle isn't 100% healthy, which will be welcome news for Seattle after seeing him score a pair of touchdowns in their first meeting.
This is too good of a spot to pass up Seattle, which I believe is undervalued in the market after dealing with so many injuries prior to the bye week. I do worry about the 49ers putting together a full 60 minutes of football at some point (their red zone woes won't last forever), but they just continue to find ways to keep opponents in the game in part due to a struggling special teams unit.
For what it's worth, I'm fine with this bet at Seahawks +6.5 but will wait to see if it touches +7 prior to kickoff before pulling the trigger.
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