NFL Week 11 is absolutely loaded. We start on Thursday night with an enormous battle between the Commanders and the Eagles, which has massive implications for the NFC East. Sunday’s slate boasts multiple divisional showdowns, including a heated battle between the Ravens and Steelers. We also get a rematch between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and a primetime showdown between Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.
In this article, I’ll provide an early analysis of every NFL game on the docket this week. Keep in mind that the Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers and Giants are on bye this week. Let’s get into my NFL preidctions for Week 11.
NFL Picks: Every Week 11 Game Previewed
| Week 11 Bets |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 11 Picks |
NFL Thursday Night Football
The Commanders have been one of the best stories in the NFL this season, and they’ve already surpassed their preseason win total of over/under 6.5. The NFC East is a real possibility for this young group, but Thursday’s road test against the Eagles presents a formidable challenge.
Philadelphia has one of the most improved defenses in the league this year, thanks to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The Eagles now rank seventh in defensive DVOA after a rocky start to the year, and since their Week 5 bye, they boast the best defense in the league by EPA/play and success rate. Rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have been immense difference-makers, and there’s talent at all three levels.
As impressive as Jayden Daniels’ rookie season has been, the Commanders have faced the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing defenses this year. The Steelers were only the second above-average pass defense by DVOA they’ve faced all season. Daniels hasn’t been the same under pressure this year, ranking 31st out of 37 qualified QBs in adjusted completion rate (58%). Philadelphia ranks 10th in pass rush win rate this year and should be able to fluster Daniels in the pocket.
Defensively, the Commanders are undoubtedly improved, especially against the pass. Since Week 5, they rank sixth in pass defense EPA but just 24th against the run. The Eagles rank second in adjusted line yards on RB runs, and the Commanders are 29th on defense, so I expect Saquon Barkley to be able to churn out yardage on the ground. If Washington has to commit extra resources to load the box, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith can beat their corners one-on-one.
On the short week, I’m backing the Eagles with the more proven coaching staff and what I believe is a more talented roster. Daniels has had a tremendous rookie season, but I trust Jalen Hurts and an Eagles offense with more explosive weapons in this game. I grabbed the Eagles at -3 here with -120 juice, but I’d be okay playing them at -3.5. Alternatively, you can pair their ML with the Lions on Sunday to get closer to even money.
Verdict: Bet Eagles -3 (-120 or better)
Passes
This is a significant NFL Luck Rankings game this week. Per Nick Giffen’s rankings, the Lions rank third, and the Jaguars rank 30th. Unlucky teams in luck rankings games are 126-72-6 ATS (63.2%) in the regular season other than the last week of the year. Detroit is coming off a miracle comeback win on Sunday Night Football, bringing it to 4-1 in one-score games this season.
The Jaguars have been playing reasonably well lately despite their 2-8 record. Jacksonville has lost three straight games to the Packers, Eagles, and Vikings, all likely playoff-bound teams, with a margin of victory of just 4.3 points. If this hits 14, I’d have to consider plugging my nose and backing the Jaguars, but I’m not rushing to the window here.
Verdict: Pass
We’re getting close to the bottom of the market on the Bears. The offense hasn’t scored a touchdown on 23 straight offensive drives dating back to Week 8, and its complete ineptitude led to Shane Waldron losing his job this week. The issues go far beyond playcalling, and better health on the offensive line would certainly help. Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Teven Jenkins, and Kiran Amegadjie are all questionable for this week.
I still have questions about this Green Bay defense that ranks dead last in early down success rate allowed this season. Perhaps Thomas Brown comes in with a great gameplan to attack some of the Packers’ deficiencies, and it’s not like they have an elite pressure unit, ranking 29th in pass-rush win rate.
Jordan Love should be healthier coming off the bye week, but Chicago has maintained an elite pass defense, ranking sixth by DVOA. The Bears are far more vulnerable on the ground, ranking 30th in defensive DVOA. Look for Josh Jacobs' props to provide potential value in a plus matchup for the star running back.
Depending on how the injury report fares for the Bears on the offensive line, I’m tempted to attempt to catch the falling knife in this divisional matchup. For now, this is a pass while we sort through the dysfunction in Chicago.
Verdict: Pass
The Dolphins had to have a win on Monday night, and they got it over the Rams. However, their offense remains unconvincing, as they had just a 38% offensive success rate against Los Angeles. Tyreek Hill isn’t 100% healthy, limiting the overall explosiveness for this scoring unit, although it was great to see Jaylen Waddle pick up his production against the Rams.
The Raiders are coming off their bye week and have performed well as an underdog this season despite Antonio Pierce consistently hurting their win probability with questionable in-game management. I don’t hate the Dolphins as a teaser piece in this game, down from -7.5 to -1.5, but this isn’t a matchup I’m rushing to bet early in the week.
Verdict: Pass
Despite being thrown into the fire behind the league’s worst offensive line by pass-block win rate and with perhaps the league’s worst wide receiver room, rookie quarterback Drake Maye has continued to impress. He ranks ninth in hero throw rate with the seventh-best off-target throw rate since taking over as the starter. He also leads the NFL with 21 scrambles for 222 yards over that span, as his rushing has continued to be a significant factor.
The Rams’ defense won’t make his life easy—they rank among the top six in EPA/play and success rate allowed since Week 5. Perhaps the Los Angeles offense can get back on track here against the Patriots’ 30th-ranked defense against the pass by DVOA. A lack of offensive line continuity has been a limiting factor, but the passing game remains dangerous with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy.
This spread is in a dead zone early in the week, and I’m curious to see which way the market moves. I’m not rushing to lay points with the Rams traveling east to west for an early kickoff, especially with how well Maye is playing.
Verdict: Pass
I wound up backing the Jets as a road favorite against the Cardinals last week, and their defense simply never got off the bus. The Cardinals posted an absurd 60% offensive success rate and 96.6% series conversion rate, posting over 400 yards of total offense. Credit Arizona for an impressive effort, but I’m at a loss with this New York team that’s way too talented to be 3-7.
This matchup against the Colts should provide a bounce-back opportunity, with Joe Flacco’s immobility providing an excellent opportunity for Haason Reddick and the Jets’ pass rush to tee off. However, Jonathan Taylor should have a productive afternoon against the 27th-ranked run defense by DVOA, and the Colts’ improving defense makes them live for an upset here. I don’t have a strong take on this one.
Verdict: Pass
Leans
The Ravens come into this game with some additional rest after last week’s thrilling Thursday Night Football win. The top priority for John Harbaugh and his staff will be attempting to fix a pass defense that ranks 24th in DVOA and has allowed far too many explosives through the air. If they’re not buttoned up this week, Russell Wilson and the Steelers could burn them – he leads the NFL in big-time throw rate from a clean pocket.
The Ravens still have the top passing offense and second-best rushing offense by DVOA, making this an enormous test for a Steelers defense without star pass rusher Alex Highsmith. It’s worth noting that the Steelers have a significant special teams edge in this game, which is rare for a Harbaugh squad – Pittsburgh ranks third in special teams DVOA while Baltimore ranks 18th.
The trends will tell you to back Pittsburgh in this spot as the underdog is 18-2-3 when catching 3+ points in the Harbaugh vs. Tomlin rivalry historically. However, this is arguably the best offense Harbaugh has ever had, making it a trickier proposition. With a total of 48.5, this isn’t your typical AFC North slugfest, and I lean towards the Ravens getting the win on the road on the back of their elite offense.
Verdict: Lean Ravens -3
I was very high on the Seahawks before the season, and I’m hopeful that the bye week will allow this first-year coaching staff to assess what has worked and what hasn’t for this 4-5 team. Their most recent loss to the Rams saw them beset by a comedy of errors as Geno Smith threw two interceptions inside the opposing 10-yard line, including a 103-yard pick-six.
Seattle has struggled against San Francisco in recent years, and the market suggests that will be the case again. Christian McCaffrey’s return bodes well for this team long-term, and the Niners moved the ball exceptionally well last week despite Jake Moody missing three field goals. Seattle’s defense will be fully healthy off the bye week, and I’m excited to see what Mike Macdonald has in store for a defensive game plan.
I’m monitoring the statuses of D.K. Metcalf and Abraham Lucas for the Seahawks this week, both of whom will be crucial in this game. However, the 49ers rank 31st in special teams DVOA and 28th in red zone touchdown rate, and they have flaws that can be exposed. I lean towards the Seahawks keeping this one close.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks +6.5
The market hit the Bills early in the week in this game, driving the line up from a pick ‘em to the current -2.5 for Buffalo. It’s easy to see why – the Chiefs rank first in the Action Network Luck Rankings and are 7-0 in one-score games. The Bills, meanwhile, rank second in the league in point differential and have won five straight games by 12.2 points per game.
Kansas City will likely still be without Isiah Pacheco in this game, while Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown remain on IR. Buffalo, meanwhile, will be without Keon Coleman. The injury report bears monitoring as Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid are questionable.
The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t been quite the same without former All-Pro cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, but Kansas City ranks third in run defense DVOA and Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to establish the run on early downs. With Buffalo’s banged-up pass-catching corps, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense could have the upper hand here.
As it was through its run to the Super Bowl last year, Kansas City’s offense has relied on late-game heroics and late-down magic from Patrick Mahomes. Betting on that regressing is simply a losing battle over time, as I learned the hard way during the playoffs last year.
Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and for what it’s worth, undefeated underdogs are 22-8-2 ATS in Game 5 onward since 2003, including 19-3-1 ATS at +4 or shorter. I doubt we’d ever hit -3 in this game, but I’d love to grab the Chiefs at +3 in this spot.
This game should be close late, and it’s tough for me to stomach betting on Sean McDermott to press the right buttons, given how we’ve seen him falter in critical moments. This has all the makings of another heartbreaker for the Bills faithful with a Harrison Butker game-winning field goal at the end of regulation.
Verdict: Lean Chiefs +2.5
Jim Harbaugh and his staff have brought new life to the Chargers, especially thanks to the prowess of defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Los Angeles ranks eighth in defensive DVOA after years of underperforming under Brandon Staley. However, I’m still not entirely convinced as the Chargers rank dead last in the strength of schedule faced on defense by DVOA.
This week, the Bengals come to town with a high-powered offense that ranks in the top 10 in DVOA and EPA. Joe Burrow has been incredible this season, ranking third among qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE with 24 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in receiving as an OPOY frontrunner. The statuses of Orlando Brown and Tee Higgins are worth monitoring after they missed the last two games.
The Los Angeles defense has cracks in critical areas, raising some questions. They rank just 29th in pressure rate and 25th in defensive adjusted line yards, and last week, they allowed the Titans to post a staggering 48% early down offensive success rate.
For now, I’m waiting on the statuses of Higgins and Brown, but I’m looking to back the Bengals’ offense in some capacity against a Chargers defense that, while well-coached, has become somewhat overrated.
Verdict: Lean Bengals Team Total Over 23.5 Points
The Texans expect Nico Collins to return to the lineup this week, which is incredible news for an offense that could certainly use a pass-catching boost after losing Stefon Diggs for the season. However, Collins won’t help the Texans keep C.J. Stroud upright behind an offensive line that has continually faltered this season. Stroud has been pressured at a 30.2% rate, the third-most of any quarterback.
The Cowboys have plenty of issues, but their pass rush came to life last week as they pressured Jalen Hurts on 64.3% of his dropbacks. Micah Parsons’ return to the lineup provided a massive boost. We’ll likely see the Texans deploy a run-heavy approach against the Cowboys, who rank 28th in run defense DVOA this season.
With Dak Prescott out for the foreseeable future, the Cowboys turned to Cooper Rush at quarterback, and the results were abysmal. Dallas posted a 33% offensive success rate that would be the worst in the league by far this year, and Rush completed just 13-23 passes for 45 yards (2.0 YPA) before being benched. Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA this season, and I have no idea how the Cowboys are going to find a consistent path to offense in this game.
The Texans’ offensive woes won’t be resolved overnight, even with Collins returning, and I don’t foresee the Cowboys doing anything on offense in this game. The total has already steamed down from 43 to 42, and I lean toward the under in this primetime matchup.
Verdict: Lean Under 42
NFL Week 11 Picks
After a red-hot start to the season, Sam Darnold has struggled to maintain his production lately as regression has hit hard. Since Week 5, he ranks 24th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks in adjusted EPA/play with the ninth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Over his last two games, he ranks 25th in adjusted net yards per attempt despite facing the Colts (22nd) and Jaguars (32nd), two defenses that rank well below average against the pass by DVOA.
Tennessee’s defense will present some challenges for Darnold, especially if cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie can suit up. Their statuses bear monitoring this week. Regardless, the Titans boast a stout run defense as they rank fourth in adjusted line yards allowed to running backs. If the Titans can stymie the Vikings on early downs, they can force Darnold to beat them in obvious passing situations.
Of course, the big concern here is Will Levis against a blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense that has ruined the days of many great quarterbacks this season. However, I was impressed with Levis’ film against a stout Chargers defense last week, as he had a 78.3% adjusted completion rate and just one turnover-worthy play. With Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears now healthy, the Titans can also implement a run-heavy approach.
Ultimately, I believe there’s value on the Titans at this number. In what profiles as a low-scoring game with a total of 39.5 points, I’m taking the six points with the home underdog and fading an underperforming Darnold on the road.
Verdict: Bet Titans +6
The Saints finally got back in the win column last week in Darren Rizzi’s first game as the interim head coach, but I wasn’t overly impressed with their performance. New Orleans finished with a 37% offensive success rate compared to Atlanta’s 53% and a 63.6% series conversion rate compared to 73.5%, meaning the Saints were outplayed on a down-to-down basis.
This week, New Orleans faces a Browns team that’s the healthiest its been all season, coming off its bye week. Cleveland is close to full strength after several injuries on the offensive line and defense earlier in the year. Offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Wyatt Teller missed time earlier this season and are now healthy, while I believe Dawand Jones is an upgrade at left tackle over the recently benched Jedrick Wills.
Cleveland’s offensive line should have its way with an overmatched New Orleans front. The Saints rank 28th in pass rush win rate, so Jameis Winston should have a clean pocket to work with against a secondary that traded away Marshon Lattimore and has multiple injuries to other starters. They also rank 29th in run-stop win rate and 31st in run-defense DVOA, so Nick Chubb should have his most productive outing since returning from injury this season.
The Saints, meanwhile, could get starting center Erik McCoy back this week, but he won’t solve all of their woes as they rank 31st in pass-block win rate. That puts them in a precarious position against Myles Garrett and the nasty Browns’ defensive line that ranks sixth in pass-rush win rate. If Derek Carr sees consistent pressure, it’s hard to project sustained success with his limited group of pass-catchers since losing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed.
The last time we saw the Browns, they had more first downs and a higher offensive success rate in their 27-10 loss to the Chargers. However, a turnover on downs, a blocked field goal, and three interceptions in plus territory killed their chances. Their luck turns this week with a win over a depleted Saints team.
Verdict: Bet Browns +1
The Broncos fell victim to the latest one-score victory by the Chiefs as Wil Lutz’s potential game-winning field goal was blocked at the end of regulation. However, that shouldn’t take away from what was a tremendous defensive effort by Vance Joseph’s group, holding the Chiefs to a 37% offensive success rate that would rank 31st in the NFL this season.
Denver’s defense has been excellent this year, ranking fourth against the pass by EPA. Joseph blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league and uses high rates of Cover 0 and Cover 1 with heavy man coverage, forcing receivers to beat the Broncos’ talented corners one-on-one. That could create significant issues for Kirk Cousins, who has little mobility left. Cousins has a 68.1% adjusted completion rate against the blitz, ranking 33rd out of 39 qualified quarterbacks.
The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 29th in pressure rate this season, and it’s difficult to imagine them generating any sort of pressure against the Broncos, who rank first in pass-block win rate. Bo Nix should have all day in the pocket to sit back and dice up this secondary, and he has ten big-time throws to just three turnover-worthy plays from a clean pocket this year.
Ultimately, I see this game coming down to which defense can generate pressure more frequently, and that’s a resounding advantage for the Broncos. Sean Payton also offers a significant coaching advantage over Atlanta’s first-year staff, and I’m backing Denver to get back on track with a home win against a Falcons team that’s still overvalued in the market.
Verdict: Bet Broncos ML
