Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 11 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 11 Predictions
Ravens vs. Steelers Pick
The Baltimore Ravens, who play the Steelers, are on extra rest after playing on Thursday. Looking forward, I’m looking to fade Pittsburgh, but I’m playing this line in this matchup every time.
There isn’t much to analyze here. The Ravens have an elite offense (#1), but I trust Tomlin and the Steelers' exceptional defense just stymied Washington.
The weakest unit here is Baltimore’s pass defense, and Russell Wilson's moon balls can hit explosive plays any time, especially to targets like George Pickens, who can seemingly catch anything thrown his way.
George Pickens should wake up everyday and thank God for Russell Wilson.
And every night before Russ goes to sleep, he better thank God for George Pickens.
Because this combo is lethal! #Steelerspic.twitter.com/NskOkEOi8r
— Emmanuel Acho (@EmmanuelAcho) November 10, 2024
Lamar Jackson has four career touchdowns against Pittsburgh in six seasons, with the only win coming back in 2019. He’s also only 15-29-1 ATS (34%) as a favorite between three and 10 points.
This is all about Mike Tomlin and his ability to will his players to victory. Tomlin is 58% ATS against teams better than .500, while John Harbaugh is 42% ATS as a favorite.
Just always take the ‘dog in a Tomlin vs. Harbaugh clash. The underdog has hit 79% of the time, which includes an 18-2-3 ATS as a 3+ point ‘dog.
Bengals vs. Chargers: Sunday Night Football Pick
My Bengals Hot Read last week against the Ravens hit, and we’re right back at in for Week 11 Sunday Night Football.
This week, the Bengals square off against the Chargers, who are coming off a strong win against the Titans.
The Chargers had pretty even stats against the Titans, though the Bengals had a much more impressive week.
Cincinnati’s defense isn’t that good, but I don’t trust the Chargers to take advantage of it, rather Cincy to score.
Los Angeles’ vaunted defense has faced two opponents that entered the weekend in the top 19 in offensive DVOA. It also lost both games against the Chiefs and the Cardinals at home and hasn’t faced a top-10 pass offense yet. However, Cincinnati is a top-five offense, so Sunday night will be a major test.
With the game last Thursday, the Bengals are on extra rest and should get Tee Higgins back. In order to save the season, the Bengals need to win at least four out of the next six due to their sluggish start.
Zac Taylor is 60% ATS against opponents with a .500 record or better. Burrow, also as a 2.5+ ‘dog, is 19-5 ATS (79%) and won 10 of the last 16 outright.
Cincinnati has two losses by one point and an overtime loss by three, so I’ll stick with the Bengals against the spread.
