If you want to add an extra edge to your card this Sunday, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the three PrizePicks props I’d consider playing this weekend.
Van Jefferson
Over/Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
The Rams' offense is broken.
The Rams are top-10 in Rush Offense DVOA, but that hasn’t translated to EPA per play. In terms of total EPA per play, the Rams are dead last in the NFL.
This graph is an absolute indictment of this year’s team.
Image credit: RBSDM.com
The Rams are still bottom-10 in Pass Offense DVOA, however.
The offensive line is miserable and ranks 30th in pass blocking, per PFF. Additionally, Matthew Stafford has been sacked at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Stafford doesn't do well under pressure and he’s posting the least efficient season of his career behind this lackluster line.
Van Jefferson was hurt and has finally made his way back onto the field. Perhaps his presence can help turn the Rams' offense around, especially after he managed three receptions for 27 yards last week.
However, to set his receiving yards line at almost 40 after just one half-decent performance feels wrong.
Moreover, the Saints defense is top-15 in Pass Defense DVOA. New Orleans has held nine of the past 14 opposing pass catchers under their receiving yards total.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Jefferson for just 31.1 receiving yards, providing us with a monster edge over this PrizePicks line. So, considering the Rams offense and the Saints defense, I’m happy to fade Jefferson.
Pick: Under 39.5 Receiving Yards
Baker Mayfield
Over/Under 180.5 Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield is back as the starting quarterback for the Carolina Panthers. Everything is fine, right?
Actually, I’m projecting a complete meltdown from Mayfield on Sunday.
Carolina’s offense has always been hindered. The weapons are bad, the pass protection is mediocre and the run game is slightly above average.
So, why should we expect Mayfield to step in and immediately produce? The other two quarterbacks tried and produced the second-lowest Pass Offense DVOA in the NFL.
That’s even more true against the Baltimore defense. The Ravens' overall defensive stats aren’t excellent, but Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey are still in the secondary. Those two should make Mayfield’s life difficult.
The Ravens' defense is trending up, too. After allowing the first three opposing quarterbacks to go over their passing yards total, Baltimore has held four of the past six opposing quarterbacks under.
Our Player Props Tool projects Mayfield for just 164.5 passing yards, which gives us a monster edge over the PrizePicks line.
Pick: Under 180.5 Passing Yards
Quez Watkins
Over/Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
Quez Watkins had his “breakout” game on Monday Night Football. He caught four balls for 80 yards, although the Eagles fell to the Commanders in the matchup.
However, Watkins had fallen short of his receiving yards total in seven of the prior eight games. And his usage isn’t increasing. In fact, he posted the lowest snap count of the season last Monday.
Moreover, Watkins’ snap count has decreased consistently over the past few weeks. As a result, I don’t expect him to become more involved in this offense.
Plus, it’s easy to understand how Watkins cashed his receiving yards total last week. The Commanders have a horrific secondary, one Watkins could easily beat.
Indianapolis is a much tougher matchup.
The Colts allow the sixth-lowest passing yards per game and the third-fewest pass attempts per game, alongside the seventh-lowest yards per completion. Indianapolis is also top-10 in Dropback EPA per play allowed.
I’d also look for DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown to dominate this game after a letdown game against Washington. Meanwhile, the Colts are first in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA against No. 3 wide receivers.
Watkins is in for a low-volume game against his toughest matchup. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects him for just 17.5 receiving yards, which provides us seven yards of edge over the PrizePicks line.
Pick: Under 24.5 Receiving Yards
