NFL Week 12 Luck Rankings Pick: 3 Games Fit Thresholds

Our NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of three criteria:

1. A difference of at least 24 places in our weekly NFL Luck Rankings (Luck Difference).
2. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 50% between two opposing teams at any point in the season.
3. A Luck% difference (Luck Gap) of at least 30% between two opposing teams in Week 13 or later.

Unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 126-73-6 (62.9%) against the spread (ATS) in regular-season games other than the last week of the season when using closing lines, which are the hardest to beat.

In Week 11, the Jaguars got blown out in the the only Luck Matchup of the week. That moves the unlucky team in luck-based matchups to a 13-12-1 (51.9%) record ATS on the season.

The three Luck Totals in Week 10 were all Luck Unders that went 2-1 to the under. That moves Luck Unders to 8-8-0 on the season, while Luck Overs remain a perfect 4-0-0. Combined, Luck Totals have a 12-8-0 (60%) record this season.

As a reminder here are the criteria for Luck Totals:

1. A Luck Total above +10 after Week 3.
2. A Luck Total above +5 after Week 11.
3. A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.

Sides and totals meeting any Luck Ranking criteria are 25-20-1 (55.4%) on the season.

This week, there's two Luck Matchups and a Luck Under. Let's take a look.

NFL Luck Rankings Week 12 Games