Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 12 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
NFL Week 12 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 12 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Browns
Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 86.1%
2. Saints
Matchup: vs. CAR
Confidence Rating: 79.6%
3. Patriots
Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
T-4. Steelers
Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
T-4. Bears
Matchup: vs. NYG
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
6. Falcons
Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
7. Bills
Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-8. Texans
Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-8. Titans
Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-8. 49ers
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 62%
T-11. Lions
Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-11. Ravens
Matchup: @ LAR
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-13. Raiders
Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-13. Eagles
Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-15. Seahawks
Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-15. Jets
Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-17. Redskins
Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-17. Rams
Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
T-19. Colts
Matchup: @ HOU
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-19. Jaguars
Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 38%
T-19. Packers
Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 38%
22. Broncos
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
23. Buccaneers
Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
T-24. Giants
Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
T-24. Bengals
Matchup: vs. PIT
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
26. Cowboys
Matchup: @ NE
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
27. Panthers
Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 20.4%
28. Dolphins
Matchup: @ CLE
Confidence Rating: 13.9%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Jets
Spread: 3
Opponent: vs. OAK
2. Redskins
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. DET
T-3. Browns
Spread: -10.5
Opponent: vs. MIA
T-3. Rams
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. BAL
T-5. Colts
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ HOU
T-5. Broncos
Spread: 4
Opponent: @ BUF
7. Bengals
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: vs. PIT
8. Panthers
Spread: 9.5
Opponent: @ NO
T-9. Falcons
Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. TB
T-9. Eagles
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. SEA
T-11. Packers
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ SF
T-11. Titans
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. JAX
13. Cowboys
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ NE
T-14. Giants
Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ CHI
T-14. Bears
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. NYG
16. Patriots
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. DAL
T-17. Jaguars
Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ TEN
T-17. 49ers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. GB
T-19. Buccaneers
Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ ATL
T-19. Seahawks
Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ PHI
21. Saints
Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. CAR
22. Steelers
Spread: -6.5
Opponent: @ CIN
T-23. Texans
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. IND
T-23. Bills
Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. DEN
T-25. Ravens
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAR
T-25. Dolphins
Spread: 10.5
Opponent: @ CLE
27. Lions
28. Raiders
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ NYJ
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
