Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 12.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-62-6 (62%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018, if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent.
For the year, unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-8-2 ATS. There is one game that meets our Luck Matchup criteria in Week 12.
For Luck Totals, the thresholds are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 0-1-1 to the under last week, and 0-1 so far this week with Washington and Dallas going over the total on Thanksgiving. In all, they are 22-13-1 (62.5%) to the under this year and 116-78-3 (60%) over the last six years. Overall, Luck Totals meeting any of the criteria are 153-97-4 (61%) since 2018.
There are three Week 12 games that meet the Luck Total criteria, including two Luck Overs. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 12
Bills (+3) vs. Eagles
The only luck matchup of the week is a marquee showdown between Buffalo and Philadelphia. The Luck Difference of 29 strongly suggests the Bills are the team to back against the spread. This game's Luck Gap of 40% doesn't reach the 50% mark, but is still quite high this late in the season.
For starters, the Bills are on the road, and unlucky road teams meeting of at least one threshold are 54-24-3 (68.5%) ATS over the last six years. For another, the game has a total of 48.5, which is above the key number of 47. Unlucky teams in games with a total above 47 are 46-19-1 (70.5%), including 21-6 (77.8%) in games after Week 4.
Unlucky road teams with a Luck Difference of at least 28 are 12-3 ATS (80%), including 11-2 (84.6%) after Week 4. This game also has a luck gap of 40%. Unlucky teams with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 12 or later are 23-8-2 (72.7%) ATS, including 10-1-1 (87.5%) for road teams.
The Bills rank ahead of the Eagles in:
- DVOA
- Offensive DVOA
- Defensive DVOA
- Score differential
- Pythagorean Win%
- Expected Score Pythagorean Win%
- Schedule-adjusted Expected Score Pythagorean Win%
- Offensive EPA/play
- Defensive EPA/play allowed
By most measures, these teams are pretty close, if not with a slight lean toward Buffalo as the better team. However, the Eagles have been the better team in close games. Their 6-1 record tops the Bills' 2-5 mark in one-score games.
Steelers vs. Bengals (Over 36.5)
For once, we have a luck game involving the Steelers that isn't betting against them. Instead, the Luck Total of 6.6 suggests this game may go over its 36.5 total.
Luck Totals of +5 or higher are 31-17-1 (64.3%) to the over after Week 11. However, a word of caution — when the total is below 38, these games are just 1-4 (25%) to the over.
With the Bengals starting backup quarterback Jake Browning, and the Steelers firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, this game may have a wide range of outcomes with the added uncertainty for both offenses.
Chiefs vs. Raiders (Over 43.5)
The Luck Total of 5.9 in this game also suggests backing the over. The total currently sits at 43.5, putting this in the cohort of games that are 30-12-1 (70.9%) when the total lies between 37.5 and 49.5, which conveniently are within six points on either side of the current total.
In another positive sign for the over, games with a Luck Total between 5 and 7 are 25-8-1 (75%) to the over.
Browns vs. Broncos (Under 37)
This game has a Luck Total of -7.4, making it the only Luck Under of the Sunday slate.
The total of 37 is quite low, but that may actually be a signal that the game is even more likely to go under. Luck Unders with a game total of 43 or lower are 15-5-1 (73.8%) to the under.
In addition, while late-season (after Week 11) Luck Unders are just 26-19-1 (57.6%) to the under, that improves to 22-13-1 (62.5%) if the Luck Total falls between -7.5 and -5.
