Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 12 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 12 Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Giants Pick
This isn't a traditional Hot Read since both teams are coming off a bye, but the number is already falling. In fact, both of them coming off a bye is what actually caught my attention.
Oftentimes, the bye is essential to get the defense right, as well as extra preparation for offense. Additionally, unders with both teams coming off a bye have hit 62% of the time, including 67% of the time when the total is greater than 40 points.
Two key aspects that also stand out to me are the Giants' stout defense with Dexter Lawrence up front and Tampa Bay's fading offense with Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs out. We also don't know the status of Mike Evans, but hamstring injuries can linger, so even if he does play, I have my doubts he'll serve a major impact.
Either way, this is almost entirely a trends and systems play.
- Since 2017, totals between 39 and 45 that drop 1-4 points (it was 44 earlier) have a 56% chance to hit the under.
- Giants coach Brian Daboll unders, with a total below 44, also hit 63% of the time.
- Bucs head coach Todd Bowles unders on the road have also hit 59% of the time (32-22).
- Weather forecast calls for wind, and windy unders have hit 62% in the past five seasons.
The key number here is 43 and it is already 42.5 in some books. You can even argue that 41 and 40 are key numbers as well. Regardless, I like to play the trends here and am eyeing a low-scoring duel at MetLife Stadium.
Eagles vs. Rams: Sunday Night Football Pick
The Rams are coming off a big win against the Patriots and it gave us a number that is under the key — it should be higher. I'm skeptical of the Rams and I really like the Eagles this season.
The Eagles are 6-0 since the bye and have been crushing teams with 100 or more yards than the opponent in all six games.
They also rank as the top team in defensive DVOA in that stretch, just allowing 211 yards per game. No opponent has hit 300 yards, including electric offenses in Cincinnati and Washington.
I love how Philly matches up with the Rams. The Eagles' young cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean have a tall task against the two-headed monster in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
However, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio forces long drives and baits mistakes. Because of that, the Eagles have forced a staggering 11 turnovers in the past four games.
The Rams have a great, young defensive line highlighted by rookie Jared Verse, but I'm trusting Philadelphia's strong offensive line — especially with Jordan Mailata back from injury.
Before the season, I wanted to wait out an early coordinator change in Philly and then buy. Well, I think I'm ready to buy in the Eagles' futures, as they look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Give me the Eagles at -2.5 before the key. There will be plenty of Eagles fans in L.A. as well, so it just makes sense.
