Once again it's time to take a look at some of the unluckiest results of the week in our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
In case you haven’t seen — or as a reminder if you have — we’re reframing the discussion around bad beats, so be sure to check out the science behind our NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
Let’s take a look at Week 13's worst beats.
Top NFL Bad Beats of Week 13
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed
1. Houston Texans (+7.5)
- Actual Result: Brown 27, Texans 14
- Expected Score: Texans 23, Browns 18
- Swing: 18 points, 53.0% win probability
Defensive and special teams touchdowns aren't a high probability when looking at expected scores, so to give up three really hurt the Texans here.
Houston was also unlucky not to punch the ball in on a 12-play, 73-yard drive that ended with an incomplete pass on fourth-and-1 situation from the Cleveland 1-yard line.
Those of you holding Texans +7.5 tickets can surely feel hard done by the result, because they were at least the Browns' equal on this day if not for a few bad breaks.
2. Chicago Bears (+3.5)
- Actual Result:Packers 28, Bears 19
- Expected Score: Bears 22, Packers 18
- Swing: 13 points, 41.4% win probability
The Bears out-gained Green Bay 409-357 but turned the ball over three times to kill key drives.
On another three drives, the Bears got within 22 yards of the end zone and settled for three field-goal attempts. Two were made, from 28 and 40 yards, while another 40-yarder was blocked. Only getting six points from these three promising drives came in slightly below expectation.
So, while the Bears did get a bit lucky from a long Justin Fields touchdown rush, the three turnovers and three field goals relegated them to scoring three points fewer than expected.
On the flip side, Green Bay had its own bit of scoring luck from Christian Watson's 46-yard scamper and a slightly lucky 21-yard run from A.J. Dillon. The Packers also had several possessions that stalled inside their own half of the field, contributing to a lower overall scoring expectation than they ended up with.
Like the Texans, Bears backers can feel hard done here, as they were 85% to cover at the start of the fourth quarter, according to the Action App.
3. New York Jets (+3)
- Actual Result: Viking 27, Jets 22
- Expected Score: Jets 31, Vikings 23
- Swing: 13 points, 38.1% win probability
The Vikings' lucky season continues. They not only covered against the Jets, but they escaped with a win in a game they probably should have lost.
The Jets gained 486 yards on a day when they only scored one touchdown — a one-yard punch in by QB Mike White. The Jets only punted the ball twice on twelve possessions.
On the other nine possessions that were neither a touchdown nor a punt, the Jets settled for five field goals, threw two interceptions and had two drives end on downs. The latter of the two was a 14-play, 83-yard drive that saw New York unable to punch the ball in from the 1-yard line three times.
It's a 3-for-3 sweep here with the bad beats. The top three unlucky teams should have each covered, but ultimately didn't.
